Buffalo's weather is basically a mood ring. One minute you're walking down Elmwood Avenue in a light jacket, and the next, you're wondering if you’ll ever see your driveway again. If you've been watching the 5 day forecast Buffalo New York lately, you know exactly what I'm talking about. We've had a weirdly mild start to January 2026—temperatures actually trended about 14 degrees warmer than last year—but that's ending right now.
Winter is finally deciding to show up.
Honestly, the "January Thaw" we just had was nice while it lasted, but the atmosphere is currently throwing a bit of a tantrum. A massive arctic front is moving in, and it’s bringing a wintry mix that will remind everyone why we own heavy-duty shovels. If you’re planning a commute or just trying to figure out if you need to salt the sidewalk, here is the breakdown of what’s actually happening over the next few days.
Breaking Down the 5 Day Forecast Buffalo New York
Today, Wednesday, January 14, is the pivot point. We started with some light rain and temperatures hovering around 40°F, but don't let that fool you. By this evening, a Winter Weather Advisory kicks in. We are looking at a transition from rain to snow as that arctic air crashes into the region.
The National Weather Service is already warning about slippery roads for the Wednesday night commute.
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Thursday, January 15: The Arctic Reality Check
Tomorrow is going to be a shock to the system. The high is only expected to reach 18°F, which is a massive drop from today's 40s. We're looking at light snow throughout the day, but the real story is the wind. With gusts coming off the lake, those "RealFeel" temperatures are going to dip into the negatives.
Expect about 1 to 3 inches of fresh powder. It's not a "Snowvember" event, but it’s enough to make the 190 a mess.
Friday, January 16: More Flurries and Chills
Friday stays cold, but we might see a slight "bump" in the afternoon highs to around 34°F. Still, it’s mostly cloudy with persistent snow showers. The ground is finally cold enough now that whatever falls is going to stick. If you’re heading out to a Sabres game or hitting the bars in Allentown, dress for 16°F lows at night.
Saturday, January 17: The Weekend Outlook
Saturday looks like a carbon copy of Friday. Highs around 34°F with a 35% chance of snow showers. It’s that classic Buffalo gray sky. You've probably noticed that the lake hasn't fully frozen over yet—thanks to that warm start to the month—which means lake-effect moisture is still very much on the table.
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Sunday, January 18: Stepping Into a Cold Snap
By Sunday, the mercury drops again. We’re looking at a high of 21°F and a low of 19°F. More snow showers are likely. This isn't just a one-day cold front; it’s the beginning of a pattern shift that meteorologists are attributing to a weakening Polar Vortex.
Why This Forecast Matters for WNY Right Now
A lot of people think Buffalo weather is just "constant snow," but the nuance is in the lake temperature. Because we had a warmer-than-average December and early January, Lake Erie is still relatively wide open. When this arctic air hits that "warm" water, it creates the perfect recipe for lake-effect bands.
Erie County has already issued a Code Blue for tonight.
This means the Buffalo City Mission and other shelters are bracing for the first real sustained cold of 2026. If you're driving, AAA is already reporting an uptick in battery-related calls. Pro tip: if your battery is more than three years old, this 18-degree jump on Thursday is exactly when it’s going to fail you.
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What Most People Get Wrong About Buffalo Forecasts
People see "30% chance of snow" and think it’s nothing. In Buffalo, 30% can mean a light dusting in Amherst and a foot of snow in Orchard Park. The "Southtowns" are expected to see higher accumulations as this front passes—potentially 5 to 10 inches in the higher elevations through Thursday night.
Always check the radar, not just the app icon.
Preparing for the Next 120 Hours
Since the 5 day forecast Buffalo New York shows a sustained drop in temperature, you should probably do a quick "winter check" tonight before the ice sets in.
- Check your tire pressure. Drastic temperature drops like the one coming Thursday morning will trigger your TPMS light.
- Clear your tailpipe. If you get stuck in a snowbank, a blocked exhaust can lead to carbon monoxide buildup.
- Salt early. The transition from rain to snow tonight means there will be a layer of ice underneath the powder.
It’s easy to get complacent when the weather is in the 40s, but this mid-January shift is the real deal. We’re moving into a more "classic" winter pattern that likely holds for the rest of the month. Stay warm, stay off the roads if the visibility drops, and maybe keep an extra scraper in the car. You're going to need it by tomorrow morning.
Next Steps for Buffalo Residents:
Monitor the local WGRZ or NWS Buffalo radar feeds starting at 7:00 PM tonight to track the exact line where rain turns to snow. If you haven't yet, swap out your summer washer fluid for a de-icing blend before the temperatures hit 18°F tomorrow.