Look, if you live in Buffalo, you already know the drill. One minute you're walking down Elmwood Avenue in a light jacket because it's a "mild" 34 degrees, and the next, you’re digging your car out of a drift that wasn't there two hours ago. Right now, as of January 16, 2026, we are sitting in that weird, cloudy 26°F pocket where things feel almost calm. But honestly? Don't let the quiet fool you.
The Buffalo weather 14 day outlook is basically a roadmap for a massive atmospheric shift. We’ve had a relatively manageable start to the year, but the data is screaming that the "January Thaw" is officially over. We're about to get hit with the coldest air of the season so far, and it’s bringing a mess of lake effect snow with it.
The Arctic Hammer is Coming
If you've been checking the maps, you've probably noticed a big purple blob hovering over Canada. That's the Polar Vortex, and it's starting to wobble. For us, that means the southwest winds we’re seeing today—around 9 mph—are going to ramp up and bring in a much nastier chill.
By Monday, January 19, those winds are projected to hit 22 mph from the west.
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When you combine that kind of wind with a high of only 21°F, the "feels like" temperature is going to be brutal. We’re talking wind chills dipping into the double digits below zero by Tuesday morning. It’s the kind of cold that makes your nose hairs freeze the second you step out of the Tim Hortons.
Why Next Week is the Real Test
Most people see "snow showers" on a forecast and think it's just the usual dusting. But in Western New York, the setup for early next week is looking more like a persistent lake effect event. Lake Erie is still relatively warm for mid-January, and when that arctic air screams across the open water, it picks up moisture like a sponge.
- Saturday, Jan 17: Expect light snow and a high of 34°F. It's the "heavy" wet snow that's a pain to shovel but great for snowmen.
- Monday, Jan 19: This is when the transition happens. The high drops to 21°F, and the snow becomes more frequent.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: The coldest day in the immediate forecast. A high of only 17°F and a low of 8°F.
The National Weather Service in Buffalo has already flagged this period in their Hazardous Weather Outlook. They're watching for gale-force winds on Lake Erie and potential travel disruptions. If you have a commute through the Southtowns or toward Niagara Falls, you might want to double-check your emergency kit.
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Surviving the 14-Day "Nickel-and-Dime" Pattern
Meteorologists are calling this an active "nickel-and-dime" pattern. Basically, we aren't necessarily looking at one massive 4-foot blizzard like the 2022 nightmare, but rather a series of moderate events that just keep adding up.
By the time we hit the end of the 14-day window—around January 25 and 26—the temperatures really bottom out. We are looking at overnight lows reaching -2°F. Yeah, that's actual temperature, not wind chill.
It’s easy to get complacent when the first half of January is easy, but this is Buffalo. The lake always has the final say.
Actionable Prep for the Big Chill
Since we know the deep freeze is coming, there are a few things you actually need to do before Monday hits.
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First, check your tire pressure. These 30-degree drops in temperature will cause your "low pressure" light to pop on faster than you can say "Go Bills." Second, make sure your snow blower actually starts. There is nothing worse than realizing your spark plug is shot when there's already six inches on the driveway.
Lastly, keep an eye on the wind direction. When it shifts to the west/northwest later next week, the snow bands will move. A town that's sunny at noon could be in a whiteout by 1:00 PM.
Stay warm, keep the salt handy, and maybe grab an extra loaf of bread before the Sunday night rush hits the Wegmans.
Your Next Steps:
- Check your vehicle's antifreeze levels and battery health before Tuesday's sub-zero wind chills arrive.
- Seal any drafty windows tonight while the weather is still a "mild" 26°F to save on heating costs next week.
- Download a radar app that specifically tracks lake effect bands, as these can vary block-by-block in the city.