Western New York is back at it. Honestly, if you live around here, seeing the sky turn that heavy shade of slate gray usually means one thing: grab the shovel.
As of Sunday, January 18, 2026, the buffalo snow totals today are sitting at a modest 0 inches so far for the daylight hours, but don’t let that clear driveway fool you. The National Weather Service in Buffalo has already pulled the trigger on a Winter Storm Warning that kicked in at 1:00 PM EST today. It’s basically the calm before the lake-effect storm.
The current temperature is a crisp 21°F, but with the wind coming off the lake at 14 mph, it feels more like 9°F. It’s that biting Buffalo cold that sneaks into your jacket seams.
Why the "Zero" is Deceiving
Most people look at the airport report and think the coast is clear. Right now, we’re just seeing cloudy skies and a few stray snow showers with a 19% chance of precipitation during the day. But the ground is about to get busy.
By tonight, the setup changes. We’re looking at a 60% chance of snow after midnight. The forecast isn’t calling for a massive dump immediately—mostly less than one inch before Monday morning—but it’s the lead-up to a much messier start to the work week.
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- Current Temp: 21°F
- Wind Chill: 9°F
- Wind: SW at 14-17 mph
- Visibility: 10 miles (for now)
The Lake Effect Machine is Waking Up
If you’ve spent more than a week in Erie County, you know the "official" total at the airport rarely tells the whole story. While Buffalo proper is quiet this afternoon, the Winter Storm Warning stays in effect until 4:00 PM Wednesday, January 21. That’s a long haul.
The lake is still relatively warm compared to the arctic air moving in. When that cold air hits the water, it picks up moisture and dumps it in those narrow, intense bands we all know and love (or hate).
Tomorrow, Monday, is when things get interesting. We're expecting 1 to 3 inches of fresh powder during the day, with heavier amounts in persistent snowbands. Basically, if you’re under a band, you’re getting buried. If you’re two miles north, you might see the sun. That’s just Buffalo for you.
What to Actually Expect
Kinda feels like everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop. With a high of 22°F tomorrow and winds gusting up to 30 mph, blowing snow is going to be the real nightmare on the 190 and the 90.
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Honestly, the "total" doesn't matter as much as the visibility. When those gusts hit 24-27 mph like they're starting to now, that one inch of snow on the ground starts acting like four inches in the air.
Survival Steps for the Next 24 Hours
You’ve heard it all before, but people still get stuck on Transit Road every single year.
First, check your wipers. If they’re streaking now, they’ll be useless by 2:00 AM when the real showers start. Second, clear the entire car. Don’t be that person with a snow-cap flying off their roof on the Skyway.
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Keep an eye on the southwest winds. Since they're sustained around 17 mph, the lake-effect bands are likely to set up south of the city first before drifting. If you’re in the Southtowns, your personal buffalo snow totals today might be zero, but your Monday morning is looking like a workout.
If you’re planning to travel, do it before the sun goes down. The chance of snow jumps from 19% this afternoon to 65% during the evening and night. It’s going to be a slow crawl for the Monday morning commute.
Check your local radar frequently. Those bands shift fast, and what looks like a light dusting can turn into a whiteout in about ten minutes flat. Stay warm, keep the gas tank at least half full, and maybe find where you hid the ice scraper last week.