Buffalo winters aren't just about snow. They’re about the mood of the lake.
Honestly, if you've lived here long enough, you know the "official" forecast is sometimes just a polite suggestion. Right now, as we hit the middle of January 2026, the city is staring down a classic Western New York shift. One minute you're walking through a slushy 37°F puddle, and the next, an arctic front slams the door shut, dragging temperatures into the teens.
That’s exactly what the buffalo new york extended forecast is showing for this week.
Today, Wednesday, January 14, we are dealing with a messy mix of rain and snow. It’s that heavy, wet stuff that makes driving on the I-190 a nightmare. But don't get used to the "warmth." By tonight, the temperature is expected to crater to 14°F. That 23-degree drop isn't just a number; it’s a flash-freeze warning for every untreated sidewalk in Elmwood Village.
The Lake Erie Factor and the 14-Day Outlook
Why is Buffalo so hard to pin down? It’s the water. Lake Erie is currently acting like a giant heat battery, but as these arctic surges roll in from Canada, that relatively warm water fuels the lake-effect engine.
For Thursday, January 15, things get serious. We’re looking at a high of only 15°F. Wind chills will likely dip near or below zero. If you’re heading out for the morning commute, give yourself an extra twenty minutes. The west winds at 14 mph will be whipping that fresh powder across the roads, killing visibility.
Here is the quick breakdown of what the next several days look like:
- Friday, Jan 16: A slight recovery to 32°F, but more snow is likely. It’s a "breather" day before the next dip.
- Saturday, Jan 17: We climb back to 36°F. Sounds nice, right? Wrong. It just means more heavy, wet snow (35% chance at night) instead of the fluffy stuff.
- Sunday - Monday, Jan 18-19: The hammer drops again. Highs settle around 21°F with consistent snow showers.
The week of January 20 continues this "rollercoaster" pattern. Tuesday looks partly sunny—a rare Buffalo winter miracle—but it comes at a price: a high of only 15°F and a low of 11°F. Basically, it’ll be beautiful to look at through a window while you’re holding a coffee, but miserable to actually exist in.
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Why This Winter Feels Different
According to experts like Jen Stanonis and the WGRZ weather team, this 2025-2026 season is being shaped by a weak La Niña. In the weather world, "weak" doesn't mean "quiet." It usually means unpredictable.
Historically, weak La Niña years in Buffalo lead to more frequent "clash" events—where warm air from the south meets the frozen north right over Lake Erie. This is why we are seeing these constant thaws followed by immediate deep freezes. The National Weather Service in Buffalo has been tracking these "reinforcing shots of cold air" that keep the lake-effect snow machine humming even when we don't have a major storm system moving through.
If you’re looking at the buffalo new york extended forecast for the tail end of the month, January 24 is already showing a return to that "rain and snow" mix with a high of 27°F. It’s a messy, gray, and very "Buffalo" end to the month.
Survival Steps for the Next 10 Days
Don't let the 37-degree days fool you into thinking winter is over. It’s just catching its breath.
Check your tires now. That transition from rain to snow on Wednesday night means black ice. If your treads are low, you’re basically driving a sled.
Clear your vents. With 4 to 8 inches of snow possible in the higher elevations (like the Boston Hills and Chautauqua Ridge) over the next 48 hours, make sure your furnace and dryer vents aren't blocked by drifts. Carbon monoxide is no joke.
Watch the "Southtowns" vs. "Northtowns" divide. This week, the southwest winds are favoring the Southtowns for the heaviest lake effect. If you’re in Orchard Park, you’re seeing a different world than someone in Niagara Falls.
Essentially, keep the shovel by the door and the gas tank at least half full. Buffalo isn't for the faint of heart in late January, but at least we’re all in it together.
Your next move: Check your local zone’s specific accumulation totals, especially if you live south of the city, as the lake-effect bands are projected to settle over the Southern Tier through Friday morning.