What’s Actually Happening with Brown Forman?
Honestly, if you’ve been watching the brown forman stock price lately, it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster—and not the fun kind. As of January 14, 2026, the stock is hovering around $27.24 for the Class B shares (BF.B), having clawed back some ground after a rough patch that saw it dip toward ten-year lows.
It’s weird. You’d think the company behind Jack Daniel’s—literally the most famous whiskey on the planet—would be bulletproof. But the market has been punishing them. Hard. We’re talking about a stock that was trading near $50 not that long ago and is now struggling to keep its head above $26.
Why the disconnect?
Well, it’s a mix of things. You’ve got the "sober curious" movement picking up steam, weird trade disputes with Canada that tanked sales up north, and the fact that everyone and their mother seems to be switching to Tequila or Ready-to-Drink (RTD) cans. Brown-Forman is trying to pivot, but when you’re a 155-year-old giant, turning the ship takes time.
The Numbers Nobody Wants to Talk About
If we look at the fiscal 2026 first-half results that dropped recently, the "reported" net sales were down about 4%. That sounds small, but in the world of high-stakes spirits, it’s a siren. Operating income slid 9% too.
Basically, the company is fighting on two fronts.
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First, the "used barrel" business—which sounds boring but usually makes them a ton of money—cratered by over 60%. Apparently, when the world stops buying as much whiskey, nobody needs the old barrels to age other stuff in.
Second, the Jack Daniel’s family is seeing some fatigue in the US. People are still buying it, obviously, but volume is lower. The bright spot? Their "New Mix" RTD brand in Mexico is absolutely exploding. We’re talking 30% organic growth. But can a canned cocktail in Mexico offset a whiskey slump in Tennessee? The market isn't convinced yet.
Breaking Down the Dividend Aristocrat Status
One thing that keeps the brown forman stock price from totally falling off a cliff is their dividend history. They’ve paid a quarterly dividend for 82 years. They’ve increased it for 42 years straight.
In November 2025, they bumped the quarterly payout by 2% to $0.2310 per share. It’s a small raise, but it’s a signal: "We aren't going anywhere."
- Current Yield: Roughly 3.4% to 3.5% depending on the day.
- The "A" vs "B" Shares: Most people trade BF.B, but the Brown family keeps the voting power with the BF.A shares.
- Buyback Program: They authorized a $400 million share repurchase through October 2026. This is basically the company saying they think the stock is cheap.
Why Analysts are So Divided Right Now
If you ask five different Wall Street analysts about the brown forman stock price, you’ll get six different answers. Some, like the folks at Morgan Stanley and Citi, have been leaning toward "Sell." They’re worried about the GLP-1 (weight loss) drugs making people drink less and the general slowdown in premium spirits.
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On the flip side, Deutsche Bank recently nudged their price target up to $30.
There's this tug-of-war between the "Value" crowd and the "Growth is Dead" crowd. The Value guys point to the P/E ratio, which is currently sitting around 15.7x. For a consumer staple giant that usually trades at a massive premium, that’s actually "cheap" in historical terms.
But is it a "value trap"?
That's the $12 billion question. If younger generations continue to ditch hard liquor for THC drinks or non-alcoholic gin, the "old" valuation metrics don't matter much.
The "Tariff" Elephant in the Room
We can't talk about this stock without mentioning the geopolitical mess. In 2025, trade tensions—especially with the EU and Canada—created huge headaches.
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The EU has a history of targeting American whiskey with retaliatory tariffs whenever there’s a trade spat about steel or airplanes. It’s annoying. It’s also expensive. When a bottle of Jack costs 25% more in Berlin because of a tax fight, people buy something else.
The company is also navigating a massive restructuring. They laid off over 600 people in early 2025 to lean out the operations. It’s a "tough love" phase for the business.
How to Handle the Volatility
If you're thinking about jumping in, you need to realize that the brown forman stock price isn't going to double overnight. This is a "wait and see" play.
Watch the Tequila portfolio (Herradura and el Jimador). Tequila is still the darling of the spirits world, but even that category has slowed down as the market got flooded with celebrity brands. Brown-Forman needs Herradura to start carrying more weight if the whiskey sales stay flat.
Also, keep an eye on the "Emerging Markets." Brazil and Türkiye have been huge growth drivers lately. If those markets can sustain 20%+ growth, they might just save the bottom line while the US and Europe figure themselves out.
Actionable Steps for Investors
Don't just stare at the ticker symbol all day. If you're looking at Brown-Forman for your portfolio, here is what actually matters:
- Check the Inventory Levels: Look at the next earnings report to see if "distributor inventories" are going up or down. If distributors are stocking up, it means they expect demand. If they're cutting back, expect more pain.
- Monitor the RTD Space: The Jack Daniel's and Coca-Cola canned collab is a massive deal. If that starts gaining real traction in Europe and Asia like it has in the Americas, it changes the growth profile of the company.
- Mind the "A" vs "B" Spread: Sometimes the Class A shares (BF.A) trade at a weird discount or premium to the Class B (BF.B). If you're a long-term holder who doesn't care about daily liquidity, sometimes the "A" shares offer a slightly better entry point.
- Watch the Dollar: Since they get a huge chunk of sales from overseas, a super-strong US Dollar actually hurts them when they convert those Euros and Pesos back into greenbacks.
The bottom line? Brown-Forman is a legacy company going through a mid-life crisis. The brown forman stock price reflects a lot of fear right now, but for a patient investor who believes Jack Daniel’s will still be on shelves in 2050, this might just be the best entry point in a decade. Just don't expect a smooth ride.