The air in Denver just got a whole lot thinner.
You’ve probably seen the news by now. Bo Nix, the engine behind the Denver Broncos’ improbable 14-3 run and their first Divisional Round win in a decade, is done. It happened on a snowy Saturday afternoon against the Buffalo Bills, right when the city was reaching a fever pitch. On the second-to-last play of overtime, during a routine-looking QB sweep to the left, Nix’s right ankle snapped.
Basically, the season changed in three seconds.
Sean Payton confirmed the nightmare on Sunday: a fractured bone, surgery scheduled for Tuesday in Birmingham, and the rookie sensation—now a second-year vet who has started 36 straight games—is headed to the sidelines. It’s brutal. It’s the kind of sports tragedy that makes you want to turn off the TV and go for a very long walk in the Rockies.
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But here’s the thing. While fans are mourning the Nix era’s pause, the locker room is already shifting gears. Jarrett Stidham is the guy now.
The Jarrett Stidham Reality Check
People are panicking. Honestly, I get it. Nix was playing like a man possessed, throwing for 3,931 yards and 25 touchdowns during the regular season. He was the first quarterback since Patrick Mahomes to lead his team to a Championship Game in his second year. Replacing that feels impossible.
But is it?
Sean Payton doesn't think so. He’s been vocal about his "two-quarterback" philosophy since training camp. "Stiddy’s ready to go," Payton told reporters after the win. He even dropped a bit of a bomb, saying he’s seen Stidham make the Broncos’ first-team defense—a unit coached by Vance Joseph that ranked among the league's best—look "bad" in practice.
Stidham isn't some wide-eyed rookie. He’s a seventh-year pro. He’s been in Payton’s system for three years now. That matters. In the NFL, "knowing where to go with the ball" is often more important than "having a cannon for an arm," and Stidham has the mental reps to keep the plane flying.
Why the Broncos QB Change Isn't a Death Sentence
The narrative is going to be about what Denver lost. That’s easy. It’s much harder to look at what they still have.
The Broncos aren't just a one-man show anymore. This 2025-26 roster is deep. You have Courtland Sutton, who just put up 1,017 receiving yards, and Evan Engram providing a safety net at tight end. Then there’s the run game. RJ Harvey has been a revelation, and if Payton leans into a ground-heavy scheme to protect Stidham, the Broncos can still control the clock.
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Remember 1990? Probably not, unless you’re a die-hard. The Giants lost Phil Simms late in the year and Jeff Hostetler stepped in to win the Super Bowl. Payton specifically cited that example, along with Nick Foles in Philly and even his own experience with Teddy Bridgewater in New Orleans.
The system is the star. That’s the Payton mantra.
Breaking Down the Numbers: Nix vs. Stidham
If you look at the 2025 preseason—which is the last time we saw Stidham in a full-speed environment—the numbers were actually staggering. He completed 30-of-38 passes for 376 yards and four touchdowns. That’s a 143.0 passer rating.
- Bo Nix (Regular Season): 63.4% Comp, 3,931 Yds, 25 TD, 11 INT
- Stidham (Preseason Context): 78.9% Comp, 4 TD, 0 INT
Sure, it was against backups and vanilla schemes. But the accuracy is real. Stidham is 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, and arguably has a quicker release than Nix. He doesn't scramble as effectively as Nix, who had 430 rushing yards this year, but he’s "sneaky athletic" enough to move the chains on third down.
What Most People Get Wrong About Sean Payton’s Offense
The biggest misconception is that this offense requires a superstar. It doesn't. It requires a point guard.
Payton’s most successful years weren't just about Drew Brees’ arm; they were about Brees’ brain. Nix was getting there, but Stidham has actually had more time to marinate in this specific playbook. He’s been the scout team QB, mimicking Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and C.J. Stroud all year. He’s seen every look Vance Joseph’s defense can throw at him.
The challenge for the AFC Championship Game against the New England Patriots isn't "Can Stidham play?" It’s "Can the offensive line protect him?"
Nix was elite at avoiding sacks. His sack rate was among the lowest in the league (3.3%). Stidham tends to hold the ball a fraction of a second longer. If Mike McGlinchey and Garett Bolles can’t keep the pocket clean, the "Stidham Experiment" will be short-lived.
The Sam Ehlinger Factor
One detail people are missing: the backup’s backup. With Nix out, Sam Ehlinger moves into the No. 2 spot. Ehlinger hasn't thrown a meaningful pass since 2023, but he’s a gamer. If Stidham gets dinged, the Broncos are suddenly in "Wildcat" territory.
It’s a precarious position for a #1 seed.
But look at the defense. Patrick Surtain II is erase-your-best-receiver good. Zach Allen and Jonathon Cooper are wrecking games up front. If the Denver defense holds the Patriots to under 20 points—which they’ve done to most teams this year—Stidham only needs to be a "game manager."
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In Denver, that’s a dirty word. But in late January, it’s a winning strategy.
Actionable Insights for the AFC Championship
If you're betting on or analyzing this game, stop looking at the QB's jersey number and start looking at the "YAC" (Yards After Catch). The Broncos’ success next Sunday depends on short, high-percentage throws to Marvin Mims Jr. and Evan Engram.
Keep an eye on the injury report for the offensive line. If they are healthy, Stidham is fine. If they are shuffled, Denver is in trouble.
Watch the first two drives. Payton usually scripts those to build a quarterback’s confidence. If Stidham hits a couple of 10-yard out routes early, the crowd at Mile High will settle in. If he takes a sack or throws into double coverage, the "Bo Nix" chants will start, even if the kid is in a hospital bed.
The Broncos are still the favorites for a reason. They have the home field. They have the defense. And they have a head coach who has been waiting his whole life to prove he can win with "his guy" under center—even if that guy wasn't his first choice for the playoffs.
Go ahead and count them out. It's exactly where Sean Payton wants you.
The work for the AFC Championship begins tonight. Stidham has the keys to the car. Now he just has to keep it on the road.