If you’ve lived in the West Country for more than a week, you know the drill. You check the weather forecast for Bristol UK in the morning, see a bit of cloud, and by lunchtime, you’re wondering if you should have packed a snorkel or a parka. Honestly, Bristol’s microclimate—wedged right between the Cotswolds and the Mendips—is a bit of a law unto itself.
Right now, as we sit in the middle of January 2026, the city is staring down a classic Atlantic standoff. While today, Wednesday, January 14, is mostly just "grey and murky" with highs of about 7°C, there’s a much bigger story brewing for the rest of the week.
It isn't just a bit of drizzle.
The Met Office has already pulled the trigger on a Yellow Weather Warning for rain starting tomorrow morning, Thursday, January 15. We are looking at a system that could dump up to 70mm of rain in some spots across the South West. For a city that’s already been battered by Storm Goretti earlier this month, the ground is basically a sponge that can’t hold another drop.
The Immediate Outlook: What’s Hitting Bristol This Week
Tomorrow is the day to work from home if you can. The rain is expected to sweep in from the south starting around 9:00 AM. It’s one of those deep low-pressure systems that doesn’t just pass through; it hangs around like an uninvited guest.
The Met Office and the Environment Agency are already highlighting flood risks for the mid-Bristol Avon area. If you’re commuting near the river or through Southville, keep a sharp eye on those water levels.
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Breaking Down the Next Few Days
- Thursday (Jan 15): Heavy rain. Really heavy. Temperatures will hover around 8°C, but the wind chill from those southeasterly gusts will make it feel much rawer.
- Friday (Jan 16): A slight reprieve, if you call "light showers" a reprieve. It’ll actually feel a bit milder with highs of 10°C, but the dampness is going to be everywhere.
- The Weekend: Saturday looks like the pick of the bunch. We might actually see some "sunny intervals" (the rarest of Bristol sightings) before Sunday returns to the standard-issue overcast grey.
One thing that people often miss about the weather forecast for Bristol UK is how much the Severn Estuary messes with things. That massive body of water acts like a heat sink. It keeps us from getting the bone-chilling frosts they get over in the east, but it also channels wind and moisture right up the Avon Gorge.
Why Bristol’s Winter is Getting "Wetter, Not Whiter"
There is a lot of talk about a "Beast from the East" potentially hitting later in the month, but if we look at the actual data from the Met Office’s 2026 outlook, the trend is leaning toward another record-breaking year for global temperatures.
For us in Bristol, that doesn't usually mean more snow. It means more energy in the atmosphere.
Basically, warmer air holds more moisture. That’s why these "yellow warnings" are becoming a weekly occurrence rather than a once-a-season event. According to the Bristol City Pack climate data, we’re seeing a long-term shift toward these "warmer, wetter" winters. We might get fewer days where your car lock freezes shut, but we’re getting a lot more days where your basement might flood.
The Science of the "Saturated Ground" Problem
You’ll hear Dan Holley or other Met Office meteorologists talk about "saturated ground" a lot this week. It sounds like jargon, but it’s the reason why 20mm of rain on Thursday is more dangerous than 40mm of rain in August.
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When the soil is full, the rain has nowhere to go but the roads.
This leads to "flashy" river responses in the Frome and the Avon. If you're planning on using the Bristol to Bath cycle path or walking the dog near Conham River Park, be prepared for some seriously muddy—and potentially underwater—routes.
Misconceptions About Bristol Weather
A lot of people think Bristol is just as rainy as Manchester. It’s actually not! We get about 800mm to 900mm a year, which is significantly less than the North West. However, we win on "humidity."
In January, Bristol’s relative humidity often hits 94%.
That’s why 7°C in Bristol feels way colder than 7°C in London. The damp air clings to you. It’s that "gets into your bones" kind of cold that no amount of wool can truly stop.
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What Most People Get Wrong
People also assume that because we’re in the South West, we’re basically the Mediterranean.
Nope.
While Cornwall and Devon get the first taste of the Gulf Stream, Bristol is just far enough inland to lose some of that protection while still catching all the clouds. We are in a geographical "sweet spot" for grey skies.
How to Handle the Bristol Forecast Like a Local
If you are looking at the weather forecast for Bristol UK and planning your life, stop looking at the "day summary" and start looking at the radar. Apps like Netweather or the Met Office’s live rain map are your best friends here.
In Bristol, rain rarely lasts the whole day—it’s usually a series of "bands" moving through. If you can time your run to the shops between the yellow and green blobs on the radar, you’re golden.
Actionable Survival Tips for the Next 48 Hours
- Check your gutters now. With 70mm possible on Thursday, a handful of leaves in your downpipe is the difference between a dry house and a soggy ceiling.
- Charge your devices. The Met Office has specifically advised households in the South West to have a "power cut kit" ready (torches, batteries, power banks) because of the wind and rain combination.
- Avoid the "Flood Shortcuts." We all know that one road that always floods (looking at you, B4058). Don't be the person who gets their engine hydrolocked trying to save five minutes.
- Layer up for dampness, not just cold. Wear a hardshell waterproof rather than a heavy wool coat. Once wool gets wet in 94% humidity, it stays wet until March.
The long-range outlook into late January suggests a "gradual trend toward colder conditions" as high pressure tries to build over Scandinavia. This might finally dry us out, but it’ll also bring those sharp morning frosts. For now, though, keep the umbrella handy and the flood alerts on.
Stay dry out there. Keep an eye on the Environment Agency’s live feed for the River Avon, especially around the high tide marks, as the surge from the Bristol Channel can often push river levels higher than the rain alone suggests. If you’re heading out toward the airport, allow an extra 30 minutes; the fog on Dundry Hill is notoriously worse than the forecast ever lets on.