It feels like just yesterday we were watching Brian Thomas Jr. light the league on fire as a rookie. He was the next big thing. 87 catches, over 1,200 yards, and 10 touchdowns in 2024. People were calling him the second coming of Justin Jefferson. Honestly, the hype was justified. But then 2025 happened, and for a lot of fantasy managers and Jaguars fans, the floor basically fell out.
What went wrong?
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If you look at the raw numbers from this past season, it’s a bit jarring. Thomas finished the 2025 regular season with 48 receptions for 707 yards and only 2 touchdowns. That is a massive regression. We’re talking about his production being nearly sliced in half across the board. If you drafted him in the early rounds of your fantasy league, you're probably still a little salty about it.
The Brian Thomas Jr. disappearing act: Reality vs. Perception
Football is a game of context, though. It’s easy to look at a box score and say a player "got worse," but that’s rarely the whole story. In the case of Brian Thomas Jr., a few things collided at once to create a perfect storm of mediocrity.
First, let's talk about the offense. The Jaguars brought in Liam Coen to run the show, and while Coen is a bright mind, the transition wasn't exactly seamless for the receiving corps. Early in the year, Thomas was still getting his snaps—averaging around 75% of the offensive plays—but the targets started shifting. Jacksonville became a crowded house. You had Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, and even the tight end Brenton Strange eating into the target share.
Then there was the injury bug. A chest injury slowed Thomas down mid-season, and he actually missed a stretch of games between Week 10 and Week 12. Even when he came back, the chemistry with Trevor Lawrence looked... off. Kinda like they were playing two different games. Thomas was still winning on deep routes—his average depth of target (aDOT) was a healthy 14.8 yards—but the connection just wasn't clicking like it did in '24.
Breaking down the 2025 stats
To really understand the slump, you have to look at the week-to-week grind. It wasn't all bad, just inconsistent.
- Week 6 vs. Seahawks: 8 catches for 90 yards and a TD. This was the "he’s back" game that ended up being a tease.
- Week 14 vs. Colts: 3 catches for 87 yards. This showed the explosive playmaking is still there, even if the volume isn't.
- The TD Drought: After scoring in Week 1, he didn't find the end zone again until Week 6, and then didn't score again for the rest of the regular season. That hurts.
Interestingly, Thomas still managed to lead the team in yards per reception at 14.7. He hasn't lost his speed or his ability to stretch the field. The problem was more about how he was being used. PFF data shows he was actually elite when lined up in the slot, yet the Jaguars kept him pinned to the outside for the majority of his snaps. It’s one of those coaching decisions that makes you want to pull your hair out.
Why the 2026 outlook is actually better than you think
So, is Brian Thomas Jr. a bust? No. Definitely not.
If you're looking for reasons to be optimistic about 2026, start with the Wild Card game against the Bills. Even though the Jags lost 27-24, Thomas looked like his old self in flashes. He caught a 3-yard touchdown in the second quarter and showed a level of urgency we hadn't seen in months.
Coach Liam Coen has already gone on record saying that getting BTJ back on the same page with Lawrence is "Project No. 1" for the 2026 offseason. That matters. In the NFL, if the play-caller acknowledges they messed up the usage, a correction is usually coming.
Also, consider the "sophomore slump" phenomenon. It’s a cliché for a reason. Defenses spent a whole summer studying Thomas's rookie tape. They played him differently in 2025—more shell coverage, more safety help over the top. Now, the ball is back in his court to adapt.
What to watch for this offseason
If you’re tracking his progress, keep an eye on two things: his weight and his route tree. Thomas came into the league at about 209 lbs. If he adds a bit of "grown man strength" this summer, he'll be much harder to jam at the line of scrimmage.
Secondly, look for reports out of camp about him playing more "Z" or slot. If the Jaguars actually move him around the formation like a chess piece instead of just a deep threat, his floor for fantasy and real-life production is going to skyrocket. He's too talented to be a decoy.
Actionable steps for the 2026 season
If you are a fan or a manager looking at Brian Thomas Jr. for the upcoming year, here is how you should play it:
- Buy the Dip: In dynasty leagues or early 2026 mocks, his value is at an all-time low. This is the classic "post-hype sleeper" scenario. People are bored with him because he burned them last year. Use that to your advantage.
- Watch the QB Chemistry: Keep a close eye on preseason reps with Trevor Lawrence. If they are connecting on those intermediate 15-yard digs, it means the timing is back.
- Don't ignore the slot: If camp reports suggest he’s taking 30% or more of his snaps from the slot, prepare for a massive rebound. That is where he thrives against zone coverage.
The talent that made him a first-round pick hasn't evaporated. He’s still 6-foot-2, still runs like the wind, and still has those sticky LSU hands. 2025 was a humbling year, but in the long run, it might be exactly what he needed to refine his game and become a true WR1.