Nigeria is a place where you wake up and the price of bread has done a "gymnastics flip" overnight. Honestly, keeping up with the economy here feels like a full-time job without the salary. But something weird just happened. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) dropped their latest report, and it’s actually saying inflation is... dropping?
You’ve probably seen the headlines screaming about a 15.15% inflation rate for December 2025. On paper, that looks like a miracle compared to the 30% nightmare we were living through just a year ago. But if you’re standing at a stall in Balogun Market or trying to buy fuel in Kano, you’re likely asking the same thing I am: "Which Nigeria are they talking about?"
The "Math Magic" Behind the New Numbers
Basically, the NBS did what they call a "rebasing" exercise. It sounds technical, but it’s mostly just changing how they grade the exam. They moved the base year from 2009 to 2024. Think of it like this: in 2009, nobody was really spending half their salary on data bundles or paying crazy amounts for solar inverter maintenance. By updating the "basket" of goods they track to match what we actually buy today, the numbers shifted.
Yemi Kale, the former big boss at the NBS, isn't exactly sold on this. He’s been vocal about how this overhaul might be masking the real "sapa" people are feeling. When the government says inflation is down to 15%, but your transport fare from Ikorodu to Island is still double what it was, there’s a massive disconnect.
The Central Bank (CBN) is staying optimistic, though. They’re projecting that by the end of 2026, we might see inflation crawl down to 12.94%. They’re banking on the "Dangote Effect"—the idea that domestic refining will finally break the back of high fuel prices.
Fuel Prices and the N950 Prediction
Speaking of fuel, the CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook has a very specific number for us: N950 per litre.
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That’s their "baseline." They expect petrol to hover around that mark throughout the year. It’s a bitter pill to swallow, especially when you remember the days of N165. However, the logic is that competition in the "midstream sector"—basically more people selling and moving fuel—will stop the price from hitting the N1,400 nightmare scenario that importers warned about.
The Dangote Refinery is currently the only thing standing between us and those imported prices. If it stays consistent, we might actually see some stability. But "stability" at N950 still means the cost of moving tomatoes from the North to the South isn't getting cheaper anytime soon.
Hunger in the North and the Funding Gap
While we’re arguing about fuel in the cities, there’s a much grimmer reality in the Northeast. The UN World Food Programme (WFP) just sounded a massive alarm. Because of aid cuts from international donors—partly due to the "America First" policies and shifting global priorities—funding has dried up.
- 15,000 people in Borno State are at "immediate risk" of catastrophic hunger.
- 13 million children across the Northeast are projected to suffer from malnutrition this year.
- The WFP can only reach 72,000 people next month. Last year, they were helping 1.3 million.
It’s a stark reminder that while the "macro" numbers look better on a spreadsheet in Abuja, the "human" numbers are breaking hearts on the ground.
Politics: The 2027 Pre-Game Has Started
It’s only 2026, but the political "jollof" is already cooking. If you thought we had a break from elections, think again.
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The big shocker recently was Abba Atiku, the son of former VP Atiku Abubakar, defecting to the APC. He didn’t just move; he pledged to support President Tinubu’s second term. In Naija politics, loyalty is a shifting sand. This move has sent ripples through the PDP, which is now frantically trying to hold "high-level consultations" with Peter Obi and the elder Atiku to form a mega-opposition.
Meanwhile, the ICPC is busy. They just declared a Chinese national, Zichao Qui, wanted for money laundering. And the EFCC? They secured an interim forfeiture of N213 billion in assets linked to former AGF Abubakar Malami. It’s a lot to process.
The AFRIMA Aftermath and the "Rema Era"
On a lighter note, Lagos just finished hosting the 9th All Africa Music Awards (AFRIMA). It wasn't just about the "shakiti bobo" and the red carpet. It was a massive flex for the economy.
Rema basically cleared the shelf. Artiste of the Year, Best Male Artiste in West Africa—you name it. Burna Boy took Album of the Year for No Sign of Weakness. What’s interesting here isn't just the trophies; it’s the money. Nigeria’s entertainment industry is now contributing nearly N2 trillion to the GDP.
We’re seeing a new crop of stars like Fola and Ayo Maff who are breaking through without the old "godfathers" of the industry. They’re using TikTok and streaming to bypass the gatekeepers. If you’re looking for where the "new money" is in Naija, it’s in the creative economy.
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What You Should Actually Do Now
Look, the news is a lot. But if you want to navigate 2026 without going broke or losing your mind, here’s the "street-smart" strategy:
- Don't be fooled by the 15% inflation stat. Your personal inflation rate depends on what you buy. If you’re still buying imported processed foods, you’re feeling 30%+. Switch to local alternatives where possible.
- Watch the fuel baseline. If the price at the pump stays near N950, logistics costs should settle. This is a good time for small businesses to negotiate long-term delivery contracts before any potential spikes.
- Creative Side Hustles. The N2 trillion entertainment industry isn't just for singers. There’s a massive demand for editors, digital marketers, and content managers. If you have those skills, the market is hungry.
- Stay Politically Neutral in Business. With the 2027 "pre-season" starting, don’t tie your business brand to a specific candidate too early. The landscape is too volatile.
The reality of breaking news in Naija is that it’s always a mix of "small wins" and "big wahala." The trick is to ignore the noise and focus on the data that actually hits your bank account.
Stay sharp. The 2026 "stabilization year" is going to be a bumpy ride, but for those who know how to read between the lines of the NBS reports, there are opportunities hidden in the chaos.
Summary of Key Economic Projections (2026)
| Metric | CBN Projection | NESG/Expert View |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 4.49% | 5.5% |
| Inflation Rate | 12.94% | 16% |
| Petrol Price | N950/Litre | N950 - N1,400/Litre |
| Exchange Rate | N1,451/$ | N1,400/$ |
Monitor the foreign exchange market closely as we approach the end of January. The removal of Nigeria from the EU's high-risk list for money laundering on January 29th is expected to ease cross-border transactions and potentially lower the cost of doing business with international partners. This is a significant window for importers and tech startups to finalize pending offshore deals.