It used to be a foregone conclusion. You’d look at the CONMEBOL standings, see Brazil sitting comfortably at the top with a massive goal difference, and basically ignore the rest of the calendar. That’s not the case anymore. Honestly, watching Brazil World Cup qualifying matches lately has become a stressful experience for fans who are used to dominance. The yellow shirt doesn't seem to carry the same psychological weight it once did in places like Asunción or Montevideo.
The road to the 2026 World Cup—to be held across the US, Mexico, and Canada—should have been easier. With the tournament expanding to 48 teams, South America now gets six direct spots and one inter-confederation play-off berth. Statistically, it is almost impossible for Brazil to miss out. Yet, the performances have been so disjointed that the conversation isn't about if they qualify, but rather how far the standards have fallen.
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The Post-Tite Identity Crisis
Tite was often criticized for being too pragmatic or "European" in his tactical approach, but he provided a stability that now looks like a luxury. Since he stepped down after the 2022 quarter-final exit in Qatar, the Brazilian Football Confederation (CBF) has looked, frankly, a bit lost. They spent a year chasing Carlo Ancelotti, only for the Italian to renew his stay at Real Madrid. That left Brazil in a weird limbo.
Fernando Diniz stepped in as an interim while managing Fluminense simultaneously. His "relationist" style—which ignores traditional positional play in favor of grouping players near the ball—was a radical shift. It worked for a couple of games against smaller sides, but then the wheels came off. Losing to Uruguay was bad. Losing to Colombia was worse. But losing to Argentina at the Maracanã? That was a historic low point. It was the first time Brazil had ever lost a home World Cup qualifier. Ever.
Dorival Júnior has since taken the reigns, bringing a more traditional structure, but the spark is still missing. The fluidity we expect from a Brazilian side feels replaced by a heavy, nervous energy.
Vinícius Júnior and the Leadership Gap
There is a glaring paradox at the heart of the current squad. At the club level, Brazilian players are dominating. Vinícius Júnior is arguably the best winger in the world, a Ballon d'Or caliber talent who terrifies La Liga defenders. Rodrygo is a tactical Swiss Army knife for Real Madrid. Bruno Guimarães runs the midfield in the Premier League.
But put them in the national team during Brazil World Cup qualifying stints, and something changes. Vinícius, in particular, has struggled to replicate his Madrid form. Part of this is tactical; at Madrid, he has a defined system and a telepathic connection with his teammates. With Brazil, he often looks isolated on the left touchline, forced to beat three defenders just to get a cross in.
Then there’s the Neymar factor.
Whether you love him or hate him, Neymar has been the gravitational center of the Seleção for over a decade. Even when he wasn't at 100%, he attracted defenders, creating space for everyone else. His long-term ACL injury left a vacuum that nobody has quite filled. Richarlison has struggled with form and mental health hurdles, and while Endrick is a phenomenal prospect, putting the weight of a nation on an 18-year-old’s shoulders is a big ask.
Why the Rest of South America Caught Up
It’s not just that Brazil got worse; the rest of the continent got significantly better. The "gap" has vanished.
- Tactical Sophistication: Coaches like Lionel Scaloni (Argentina), Marcelo Bielsa (Uruguay), and Néstor Lorenzo (Colombia) have built modern, high-pressing machines. They don't fear Brazil anymore.
- Physicality: The modern CONMEBOL qualifier is a war of attrition. Teams like Paraguay and Ecuador have developed incredibly disciplined defensive structures that thrive on frustrating Brazil's creative players.
- The European Migration: Almost every starter for Ecuador or Uruguay now plays in a top-five European league. The "mystique" of playing against guys from PSG or Liverpool is gone because they are teammates at the club level.
When Brazil travels to Quito to play in the altitude, or goes to Barranquilla in the stifling heat, they are meeting teams that are tactically prepared to exploit Brazil's current lack of a clear Plan B.
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The Numbers Don't Lie (But They Are Ugly)
If you look at the middle of the qualifying cycle, the table tells a story of uncharacteristic vulnerability. Brazil found themselves hovering in the middle of the pack—4th, 5th, even 6th at various points. For a nation that treats anything less than 1st as a crisis, this is unthinkable.
The defense, once anchored by the legendary pairing of Marquinhos and Thiago Silva, has looked porous. Transition defense has been the Achilles' heel. When Brazil loses the ball in the final third, they are getting carved open on the counter-attack. It happened against Uruguay, where Darwin Núñez and Nicolas de la Cruz looked like they were playing against a youth team at times.
Can the Seleção Fix It Before 2026?
Fixing the Brazil World Cup qualifying slump isn't just about picking the right players; it's about settling on a philosophy. Dorival Júnior needs to decide if he wants to play the "Brazilian way" with total freedom, or if he needs to embrace the rigid defensive structures that win international tournaments nowadays.
The emergence of Savinho and the continued growth of Lucas Paquetá in midfield provide some hope. There is also the "Endrick Factor." The youngster has a knack for scoring big goals in small windows of time. If he can transition from a "super-sub" to a reliable number nine, it changes the entire geometry of the attack.
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The reality is that Brazil will qualify. The format is too forgiving for them not to. But the goal isn't just to be at the World Cup; it's to win it. And based on the qualifying rounds we've seen so far, they are miles behind the likes of France, Spain, or even a rejuvenated Argentina.
What to Watch for in the Next Windows
If you are following the remaining fixtures, keep an eye on these specific tactical shifts:
- The Midfield Pivot: Watch if Dorival sticks with a double-pivot of André and João Gomes or moves toward a more creative setup. Brazil often looks "stuck" in the middle, unable to progress the ball vertically.
- The Fullback Problem: Historically, Brazil had Cafu, Roberto Carlos, or Dani Alves. Now, the fullback positions are the weakest link. The lack of overlapping runs is making the wingers' jobs twice as hard.
- Home Crowds: The relationship between the fans in Brazil and the national team is at an all-time low. If they can't start winning convincingly at home, the pressure will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
To truly understand where this team is headed, stop looking at the FIFA rankings. They are deceptive. Instead, look at the "Big Chances Created" metric in their away games. If Brazil continues to rely on individual moments of magic rather than structured chance creation, they will likely struggle against any European powerhouse in 2026.
For those betting or analyzing these matches, the "Under" on total goals is becoming a more frequent trend for Brazil games. The flair is gone, replaced by a gritty, often frustrating struggle for rhythm.
Track the integration of the "Olympic Generation" players. Guys like Vanderson or Murillo (at Nottingham Forest) might be the defensive solutions needed to shore up a backline that has looked aging and slow. The transition from the Neymar era to the Vini/Rodrygo era is proving to be the most difficult "changing of the guard" in the history of Brazilian football.