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Recruiting is a weird, volatile business. One day you’re the priority target for a national powerhouse, and the next, a coaching change three time zones away completely reshuffles your entire deck. That’s basically the story of Brady Smigiel Ohio State football recruiting. For a long minute there, it looked like the California gunslinger was destined for Columbus. He had the frame, the ridiculous stat sheet, and a direct line to the Buckeyes' coaching staff.
Then the coaching carousel started spinning.
Smigiel, the 6-foot-5 standout from Newbury Park High School, eventually signed with Michigan in December 2025. Yeah, that Michigan. The rivals up north. It’s a bitter pill for some fans to swallow, especially since the Buckeyes were actually the ones who helped trigger his decommitment from Florida State earlier in the cycle. But if you want to understand why Ohio State didn't close the deal on one of the most prolific passers in California history, you have to look at the "Chip Kelly factor."
The Chip Kelly Connection and the Offer That Changed Everything
Ohio State officially entered the mix for Brady Smigiel in February 2024. It wasn’t a random offer. Chip Kelly, who had just joined Ryan Day’s staff as offensive coordinator, had been tracking Smigiel since his days at UCLA. Kelly knew the kid. He’d seen the tape of Smigiel carved up defenses in Ventura County.
When Kelly moved to Columbus, he made Smigiel his very first quarterback offer. That carries weight. Being "the guy" for a guy like Chip Kelly is a massive selling point for a high school junior. At that time, Smigiel was technically committed to Florida State, but the Buckeyes started chipping away at that pledge immediately.
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The momentum peaked in January 2025. Kelly actually flew out to California to visit the Smigiel family at their home. It worked. Within days of that visit, Smigiel backed off his commitment to Mike Norvell and the Seminoles. The path to Ohio State looked wide open. He was a top-50 prospect with a pro-style game that fit exactly what Ryan Day wanted to do.
But then, the NFL came calling for Kelly. When Kelly left the Buckeyes to take the offensive coordinator job with the Las Vegas Raiders, the primary bridge between Smigiel and Ohio State collapsed.
Why the Buckeyes Moved On to Luke Fahey
College football doesn't wait for anyone to grieve a missed recruit. Once it became clear that Smigiel’s interest was tied specifically to Kelly’s system, Ohio State pivoted. Honestly, the Buckeyes' quarterback room was already crowded with talent like Julian Sayin and Air Noland. They didn't need to beg a kid to come to Columbus if the fit wasn't 100% there anymore.
The staff shifted their focus toward other West Coast targets, eventually landing a commitment from Luke Fahey out of Mission Viejo. Fahey, a four-star prospect in his own right, officially signed with the Buckeyes in July 2025. While he might not have the "video game numbers" Smigiel put up at Newbury Park, the coaching staff viewed him as a better long-term fit for the post-Kelly offensive structure.
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Breaking Down Brady Smigiel’s High School Production
To understand why the hype was so high, you just have to look at what Smigiel did at the prep level. We’re talking about historical numbers here. By the time he finished his junior season, he had already surpassed 11,000 career passing yards.
- Freshman Year: 3,479 yards, 46 touchdowns.
- Sophomore Year: 4,222 yards, 52 touchdowns.
- Junior Year: 3,521 yards, 49 touchdowns (with only 3 interceptions).
He wasn't just a stat-padder, either. Smigiel led Newbury Park to a CIF Southern Section championship and won State Player of the Year honors twice. He’s a massive human being—6-foot-5 and over 200 pounds—with the kind of deep ball that makes scouts drool. But recruiting isn't just about talent; it’s about timing.
The Michigan Flip: A Rivalry Twist
The most ironic part of the Brady Smigiel Ohio State football recruiting saga is where he ended up. After the Ohio State interest cooled following Kelly's departure, Michigan smelled blood in the water. Sherrone Moore and his staff stayed persistent. They sold Smigiel on being the face of their 2026 class.
On December 3, 2025, Smigiel officially signed his National Letter of Intent with Michigan.
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For Ohio State fans, seeing a target they once coveted head to Ann Arbor is never fun. However, the Buckeyes' 2026 class remains one of the best in the country. They’ve focused heavily on the defensive side of the ball and skill positions, currently holding a top-5 national ranking with cornerstone pieces like five-star wideout Chris Henry Jr. (who, coincidentally, also plays high school ball in California).
What This Means for the Future of Ohio State’s QB Room
If you're worried about the Buckeyes' future under center, don't be. Ryan Day has proven he can develop elite quarterbacks regardless of who is calling the plays. While Smigiel is a "what if" story, the reality is that the Buckeyes' roster is built to withstand these types of recruiting shifts.
The 2026 cycle is far from over, but the quarterback spot is locked in with Fahey. The staff is now putting all their energy into surrounding him with elite protection and targets.
Actionable Insights for Following the 2026 Cycle
If you want to stay ahead of the curve on how this class finishes out, keep an eye on these specific areas:
- Watch the Offensive Line: With Smigiel off the board, the Buckeyes are prioritizing "big men" like Max Riley and Sam Greer to protect whoever wins the QB battle in 2026.
- Monitor the Transfer Portal: Even with high school signees, Ohio State frequently uses the portal to add veteran depth. If Fahey needs more time to develop, expect a senior transfer to bridge the gap.
- Keep an eye on the California Pipeline: Despite missing on Smigiel, Ohio State still has massive influence in the Golden State. Their pursuit of players like Khary Wilder shows the West Coast remains a primary hunting ground.
The Brady Smigiel story is a reminder that in the NIL and coaching carousel era, a verbal commitment is basically just a "maybe" until the ink is dry on the NLI. Ohio State lost a battle for a big-armed Californian, but in the grand scheme of their 2026 recruiting efforts, they’ve already moved on to the next elite prospect.