If you’ve spent any time looking at a long-term chart of the BP stock price history, you probably noticed it looks less like a steady climb and more like a heart rate monitor during a thriller movie. One minute it’s the king of the FTSE 100, and the next, it’s fighting for its life after a disaster or a geopolitical meltdown.
Honestly, it’s a weird stock. You have people who have held it for forty years for the dividends, and then you have the younger crowd who won’t touch it because of the "Beyond Petroleum" marketing that didn't exactly pan out as planned. Basically, to understand where BP is going in 2026, you have to look at the scars it’s picked up over the last few decades.
The 2000s: From "Beyond Petroleum" to the Brink
Back in 2000, BP was riding high. They’d just merged with Amoco in what was basically the biggest industrial merger ever at the time. They were rebranding. Out went the old shield, and in came the "Helios" sunflower logo. The message? We’re an energy company, not just an oil company.
The stock price liked the vision. In early 2000, BP was trading around $50 to $60 on the NYSE. It felt safe. It was the "widows and orphans" stock—the kind of thing you buy and forget about while the checks roll in. But the mid-2000s brought the first cracks. The 2005 Texas City refinery explosion was a localized tragedy, but for investors, it was the first sign that maybe the "cost-cutting" that fueled those high stock prices had a dark side.
The 2010 Deepwater Horizon Crash
Then came April 20, 2010. If you were holding BP stock then, you remember the stomach-flip. Before the Macondo well blowout, the stock was sitting comfortably at roughly $59. Within two months, it had plummeted by 55%, bottoming out near $27 in June 2010.
The trading volume during that crash was insane. We’re talking over 700 million shares moving in a single day in New York, compared to the usual 30 million. People weren't just selling; they were fleeing. For a while, there was actual talk that BP might go bankrupt or get swallowed by Shell or Exxon. They didn't, obviously, but they had to sell off about $38 billion in assets just to cover the cleanup and legal bills.
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The Lost Decade and the COVID Cliff
After 2010, the BP stock price history became a story of "the recovery that never quite happened." While the S&P 500 was off on a historic bull run, BP spent years stuck in a range between $30 and $50. Every time it looked like it was breaking out, oil prices would tank or a new multi-billion dollar settlement would hit the books.
Then 2020 happened.
The pandemic didn’t just hurt BP; it broke the old model. In March 2020, as the world locked down and oil prices briefly went negative, BP’s share price crashed to around $17. That was a level not seen since 1994.
Key Stat: In 2020, for the first time since World War II, BP did the unthinkable: they cut the dividend. It wasn't just a trim; they slashed it by 50%.
For income investors, this was a betrayal. It fundamentally changed how the market valued the company. It wasn't the "safe" play anymore. It was a "transition" play, and transitions are messy.
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The Russia Exit and the 2022 Surge
By 2022, things were looking up again. Post-pandemic demand sent oil prices screaming past $100 a barrel. But then Russia invaded Ukraine. BP had a massive 19.75% stake in Rosneft, the Russian state-controlled oil giant. Almost overnight, BP announced they were walking away.
That "walking away" cost them a $24.4 billion write-down. It was the largest single financial hit any company took from the Russia exit. Surprisingly, the stock didn't crater as hard as you’d think. Investors actually cheered the moral clarity, and the underlying profits—fueled by high oil prices—were so massive ($27.7 billion that year) that the Rosneft loss felt like a one-time bruise rather than a broken bone.
Where we are now: BP in 2025 and 2026
Fast forward to today, January 2026. The stock is currently hovering around $34 to $36 on the NYSE. It’s a strange spot to be in. On one hand, the company has pivoted back toward oil and gas after realizing the "green" transition was hurting their returns. On the other, they’re still dealing with the baggage of their "transition" business impairments.
Recent Performance at a Glance
- 2024 Return: Roughly -14% (a rough year for refining margins).
- 2025 Return: +21% (a solid bounce-back as they refocused on high-margin oil).
- Current Dividend Yield: Around 5.7% to 6.2%, depending on the day.
Most people get BP wrong because they think it’s a "dead" company. It’s not. It’s an ATM. In 2024 alone, even with lower profits, they generated over $27 billion in operating cash flow. They’re using that cash to buy back their own shares at a clip of about $750 million every quarter. This reduces the number of shares in existence, which—theoretically—makes your shares more valuable over time.
The 2026 Outlook: What to Watch
If you’re looking at the BP stock price history to predict the future, you have to look at their "Strategic Reset." Last year, the board basically said, "Okay, we’re going to spend $10 billion a year on oil and gas through 2027 and scale back the low-carbon stuff."
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Is it working? Sorta. They just activated a massive five-field deal in Iraq with reserves of about 9 billion barrels. The cost to get that oil out of the ground is around $3 a barrel. When Brent crude is at $65, that is a massive profit margin.
But there’s a catch. Just this week, BP warned of a $5 billion impairment charge for Q4 2025. It’s the "classic BP" move—one step forward, one expensive write-down back. This is why the stock trades at such a low valuation compared to American giants like Exxon. Investors just don't fully trust the management yet.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you’re considering BP in your portfolio right now, don't just look at the price chart. The price is often a distraction from the actual value being returned.
- Focus on the Buybacks: BP is aggressively shrinking its share count. If the company stays profitable, each remaining share owns a bigger piece of the pie.
- Watch the Dividend Coverage: At a 6% yield, it’s attractive, but make sure the "payout ratio" stays healthy. If they keep having to write down billions in "transition" assets, that dividend could feel the heat again.
- The Valuation Gap: Right now, BP is trading at a significant discount to its "fair value" based on discounted cash flow (some analysts say it's 50% undervalued). However, a stock can stay "undervalued" forever if people don't want to buy it.
- Geopolitical Hedge: BP is basically a proxy for global stability. If things get worse in the Middle East, the stock likely goes up. If a peace deal happens in Ukraine and Russian oil floods back, the price might sag.
Basically, you’ve got to decide if you’re okay with the "BP Rollercoaster." It’s a high-yield play with a lot of historical baggage, but for those who can stomach the $5 billion "surprises," the cash flow remains one of the strongest in the business world.
Next Steps:
- Check the 4Q 2025 earnings report (due in early February 2026) specifically for the "net debt" figure—if it’s falling toward $20 billion, that’s a huge win.
- Compare the P/E ratio of BP against Shell; if the gap is wider than 15%, BP might be the better "value" play despite the headaches.