The numbers are in. Honestly, they aren't exactly what James Cameron probably wanted to see on his morning dashboard. While everyone else is still nursing a New Year's hangover, the theatrical landscape is shifting in ways that make the 2026 forecast look like a wild roller coaster. If you’ve been following the box office news today, you know the headline is usually about dominance. But today, the story is about the cracks in the armor of a giant.
The Blue Giant is Stumbling (Sorta)
James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash is still the number one movie in the world. It’s sitting on a global haul of $1.237 billion. In any other universe, that’s a "pop the champagne" moment. But in the world of Pandora? It’s complicated.
By this point in their runs, the first Avatar and The Way of Water were absolute juggernauts that refused to slow down. Fire and Ash is currently lagging behind its predecessors by a significant margin. Specifically, it has only earned about 66% of what The Way of Water had made at this same point in its domestic life cycle.
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Why? Maybe it’s the lack of that 13-year "nostalgia" gap. Maybe it's the 66% Rotten Tomatoes score, which is the lowest for the franchise. Or maybe audiences are just a bit tired of three-hour-plus swims in digital oceans. Cameron himself recently admitted to TVBS News that the industry is "depressed" and that they need to figure out how to make these movies more inexpensively. When the king of the "blank check" movie starts talking about budget cuts, you know the vibe in Hollywood has shifted.
The New Blood: 28 Years Later and The Bone Temple
Today, January 16, marks a major transition point. Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple officially lands in wide release. It’s the first real threat to Avatar’s four-week streak at the top.
Initial tracking suggests this gritty horror revival is going to pull in a massive audience that isn't looking for family-friendly bioluminescence. People want the rage virus. They want Cillian Murphy back. And they’re getting it. Early Friday matinee numbers show a strong turnout, particularly in urban centers where the R-rated crowd has been starving for something visceral after a holiday season dominated by Zootopia 2.
Speaking of Zootopia 2...
Disney’s animated sequel is the real "quiet" winner of the season. While Avatar grabs the headlines, Zootopia 2 has surged to $1.655 billion worldwide. It’s actually outperforming the Na'vi in several key territories, including China.
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It’s a fascinating split. One movie is a technical marvel that’s "underperforming" at a billion dollars, and the other is a talking-animal comedy that’s basically a license to print money. It proves that family audiences are the bedrock of the theater experience right now. Parents are willing to pay for the $20 popcorn if it means ninety minutes of peace, but the general adult audience is getting pickier.
The Global Wildcards
You can't talk about box office news today without looking at India. Ranveer Singh’s Dhurandhar is doing things people thought were impossible. It just crossed ₹817 crore (about $1.275 billion globally). It’s been in theaters for 43 days and is still out-earning brand-new releases like Happy Patel: Khatarnak Jasoos.
The sheer consistency of Dhurandhar is a lesson for Hollywood. It’s not just about the opening weekend anymore. It’s about the "legs." If people keep talking about a movie in week six, you’ve won. If they’re over it by week three (looking at you, Avatar), you’re in trouble.
What’s Coming Next?
The rest of January looks like a battlefield of niche hits and re-releases. We’ve got:
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- The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2026 Re-release) hitting select screens.
- Marty Supreme, the A24 darling starring Timothée Chalamet, which is hanging on with a respectable $84 million.
- The Housemaid (Lionsgate), which is quietly nearing the $100 million mark domestically.
Honestly, the "January Slump" feels a little less slumped this year. We are seeing a 15% increase in total earnings compared to this time last year. That’s a huge win for theater owners who were worried that streaming had finally won the war.
Actionable Insights for Moviegoers and Investors
If you're trying to navigate the cinema landscape this weekend, keep these shifts in mind. The industry isn't dying; it's just becoming more fragmented.
- Watch the "Drop-Off": Keep an eye on the second-weekend numbers for 28 Years Later. If it holds above 50%, expect a long theatrical run.
- The Premium Screen Battle: IMAX and Dolby Cinema screens are currently being fought over by Avatar holdovers and the new 28 Years Later release. If you want a good seat for the horror flick, book early—premium slots are limited.
- International Strength: Watch the Chinese box office for Zootopia 2. It’s on track to become one of the highest-grossing animated films of all time if the momentum stays steady through February.
- Budget vs. Result: The success of smaller films like Marty Supreme and The Housemaid shows that "medium-budget" movies are finding their footing again, providing a safer bet for studios than the $300 million gambles Cameron is known for.
The theatrical market is no longer a "one size fits all" game. It's a scrap for attention between high-concept horror, established animation, and aging sequels. Whether Avatar 3 can cross that $2 billion mark remains the biggest question of the quarter, but for today, the spotlight has officially moved to the zombies.