Honestly, if you had told anyone in La Paz a year ago that the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) would basically evaporate by the time the Bolivia elections 2025 results were finalized, they’d have called you crazy. For twenty years, MAS wasn’t just a party; it was the sun the entire Bolivian political solar system orbited around. But the results are in. The era of Evo Morales and Luis Arce is officially over, and the guy standing on the balcony now is Rodrigo Paz Pereira.
It wasn't even close in the end.
Paz, a centrist senator from Tarija, secured a decisive victory in the October 19 runoff. He pulled in 54.6% of the vote, leaving the conservative former president Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga in the dust with 45.4%. It’s a massive shift. We’re talking about a country that has been a bastion of the South American left for two decades suddenly pivoting to a "popular capitalism" model. If you're looking for the TL;DR version of the Bolivia elections 2025 results, it's this: the people were tired of being broke, and they chose a middle-of-the-road fix over a hard-right shock to the system.
The Night the Leftist Dynasty Crumbled
The first round back in August was the real shocker. Nobody—and I mean absolutely nobody in the polling industry—saw Paz coming. He was hovering at maybe 8% or 9% in the weeks leading up to the vote. Then the actual numbers hit. Paz took 32%, Tuto Quiroga took 27%, and the MAS candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, basically vanished with a humiliating 3.2%.
Why did it happen?
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The infighting between Evo Morales and current President Luis Arce didn't just bruise the party; it decapitated it. When the courts finally blocked Morales from running, he didn't throw his weight behind a successor. Instead, he told his followers to spoil their ballots. And they did. Nearly 20% of the first-round votes were null or blank. That’s a staggering number of people essentially saying, "If I can't have Evo, I'll burn the whole thing down."
But while the MAS faithful were busy crossing out their ballots, the rest of the country was looking at their wallets. Inflation was creeping toward 18%. Gas lines were miles long. The dollars had simply run out. In that climate, Paz’s "Capitalism for All" slogan didn't sound like a corporate takeover; it sounded like a lifeline.
Why Rodrigo Paz Won (and Why Tuto Lost)
You’ve gotta wonder how a guy who was polling in single digits ended up with the sash. It wasn't just his name, though being the son of former President Jaime Paz Zamora certainly helped with the older crowd. It was his running mate, Edman Lara.
Lara is a former police captain who became a TikTok sensation after getting fired for calling out corruption. He’s the anti-politician. While Tuto Quiroga sounded like a 1990s IMF textbook, Lara spoke the language of the street. He talked about "cleaning the house" and "ending the kickbacks." In a country where the informal economy makes up about 80% of the workforce, that message resonated way more than Tuto’s talk of austerity and structural adjustments.
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The Vote Breakdown
- Rodrigo Paz (PDC): 54.6% - Strongest in the highlands and middle-class urban centers.
- Tuto Quiroga (LIBRE): 45.4% - Won the lowland strongholds like Santa Cruz and Beni but couldn't bridge the gap elsewhere.
- The "Evo Factor": Millions of rural voters who used to be the MAS backbone either stayed home or drifted toward Paz’s pragmatic center.
Paz managed to do something the Bolivian opposition hasn't done in 20 years: he looked "safe." Tuto Quiroga, for all his experience, carries the baggage of the old-school conservative elite. People feared he would slash every social program in sight. Paz, on the other hand, promised to keep the social safety net while opening the door to foreign investment. He’s a bridge-builder, or at least he played one very well on TV.
What Happens Now? The Reality Check
The party's over, and the hangover is going to be brutal. Paz was inaugurated on November 8, and his "to-do" list is basically a nightmare. The Bolivia elections 2025 results gave him a mandate, but they didn't give him a magic wand.
First, there’s the lithium. Bolivia has the largest reserves on the planet, but they’ve been sitting under the salt flats for years because of legal and political gridlock. Paz wants to bring in the big players—U.S. and European firms—to finally get the stuff out of the ground. But the local communities in Potosí aren't just going to hand over their land because a new guy is in the Palacio Quemado.
Then there’s the debt. We're looking at a $40 billion hole. The new administration is already talking to Washington about a $1.5 billion cooperation deal, which would have been unthinkable under the MAS. It’s a 180-degree turn in foreign policy. Out with China and Russia, in with the U.S. and the EU.
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The "Guarantee" of Edman Lara
Keep an eye on the Vice President. Edman Lara has already said—publicly, mind you—that if Paz doesn't deliver on his anti-corruption promises, he’ll be the first one to turn against him. That’s not exactly the kind of "unified front" most presidents want, but it’s what the Bolivian public demanded. They didn't just vote for a new government; they voted for a watchdog.
The legislature is also a mess. Paz’s Christian Democratic Party (PDC) is the largest group, but they don't have an outright majority. They have 49 seats in the 130-member Chamber of Deputies. To get anything done, they’re going to have to cut deals with Tuto’s LIBRE party and Samuel Doria Medina’s Unity alliance. It’s going to be "politics by exhaustion."
Actionable Steps for the Road Ahead
If you're watching Bolivia for business or travel, here’s how the Bolivia elections 2025 results actually affect you:
- Watch the Exchange Rate: The new administration is likely to move toward a more flexible exchange rate. If you’re holding Bolivianos, keep a very close eye on the Central Bank’s first few moves in early 2026.
- Energy Sector Opportunities: With Paz looking to deregulate, the "Junior Mining" and "Renewables" sectors are about to get a lot more interesting. The legal framework for lithium is expected to be overhauled by mid-2026.
- Monitor the Chapare: This is Evo Morales's home turf. While he lost the election, he still controls the coca growers. Any major unrest or protests against the new government will start here.
- Visa and Trade Policy: Expect a loosening of travel restrictions and import tariffs. Paz has pledged to slash the red tape that has made bringing goods into Bolivia a nightmare for decades.
Bolivia just took a massive leap into the unknown. It’s not just a change in leadership; it’s a total reimagining of what the country is supposed to be. Whether "popular capitalism" can actually fix twenty years of structural decay remains to be seen, but for the first time in a generation, the people of Bolivia feel like they’ve actually changed the channel.