Honestly, if you had told anyone in La Paz back in 2023 that the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) would basically evaporate by the end of 2025, they would’ve called you crazy. But here we are. The bolivia election results 2025 didn't just change the president; they ripped up the entire political script that's been running for twenty years.
It’s official now. Rodrigo Paz Pereira, a centrist senator and the son of a former president, is the man in the big chair. He pulled off a victory that was, frankly, a massive shock to the system.
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The Numbers That Broke the Status Quo
Let’s look at the hard data from the October 19 runoff because it’s wild. Rodrigo Paz (Christian Democratic Party - PDC) grabbed 54.53% of the vote. His rival, the conservative former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, finished with 45.47%.
Paz won in six out of the nine departments. He even flipped places like La Paz and Cochabamba—territories that used to be "MAS or death" zones. Meanwhile, the ruling party, which has dominated Bolivia since 2006, barely registered. Their candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, got a pathetic 3.2% in the first round. It was a total collapse.
Why Did the MAS Empire Crumble?
You can’t talk about the 2025 results without talking about the civil war between Luis Arce and Evo Morales. It was ugly. Arce, the incumbent, dropped out in May 2025 because his approval ratings were in the basement. Fuel was gone. Dollars were impossible to find. People were tired of waiting in line for bread and diesel.
Then you have Evo. He tried everything to run again, but the Constitutional Court basically told him "no" for the last time. He responded by calling for a boycott.
"Some 20% of the electorate—roughly 1.2 million people—cast null or blank ballots. Morales called this a victory, but in reality, it just cleared the path for the opposition to walk right through the front door."
The "Surprise" Factor: Who is Rodrigo Paz?
Nobody saw Paz coming. Early in 2025, he was polling at like 8%. He’s the son of Jaime Paz Zamora, so he’s got the pedigree, but he played the "outsider" card brilliantly.
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His secret weapon? Edman Lara.
Lara is a former police captain who became a TikTok star by filming himself calling out corruption within the force. He was Paz’s running mate, and he brought a massive "anti-establishment" energy to the ticket. While Tuto Quiroga was talking about IMF bailouts and heavy austerity, Paz and Lara were talking about "popular capitalism"—basically making it easier for the average street vendor or small business owner to get credit without the government breathing down their neck.
What Happens Now?
Paz took office on November 8, 2025, and he’s inherited a mess. Here’s the reality of what Bolivia is looking at right now:
- The Debt Bomb: The country is sitting on about $42 billion in debt.
- Fuel Crisis: Bolivia still imports about 90% of its diesel. Paz has promised to end the subsidies, but doing that without causing a riot is going to be like defusing a bomb with a toothpick.
- A Split Congress: The PDC has the most seats (49 in the Chamber of Deputies), but they don’t have a majority. Paz has to play nice with Tuto’s "Libre" alliance and Samuel Doria Medina’s "Unity" party just to pass a budget.
- The Evo Shadow: Morales is still out there. He’s currently in the Chapare region, surrounded by supporters, while an arrest warrant hangs over his head for some pretty serious allegations.
How This Affects the World (and Lithium)
If you're looking at this from outside Bolivia, the big word is Lithium.
Under the MAS, the state-run YLB was incredibly protective. Paz is moving in a different direction. He wants to open up the "Lithium Triangle" to more foreign investment, particularly from the U.S. and Europe, though he’s keeping the Chinese and Russian deals on the table for now. It’s a pragmatic shift. He basically said, "Ideology doesn't put food on the table," and that's the mantra of this new administration.
Actionable Steps for Navigating the New Bolivia
If you are an investor, a traveler, or just someone following Latin American geopolitics, here is what you need to keep an eye on in the coming months:
- Monitor the Exchange Rate: Watch the "parallel" dollar market in La Paz. If the gap between the official and black-market rates starts to shrink, Paz’s "popular capitalism" is actually working.
- Watch the Chapare: Any move by the police to arrest Evo Morales could trigger massive roadblocks. If you're traveling to Cochabamba or Santa Cruz, check the "mapa de transitabilidad" daily.
- New Mining Tenders: Expect the Ministry of Energy to announce new bidding rounds for the salt flats in Potosí by mid-2026. This will be the first real test of Paz's openness to the private sector.
The 2025 election wasn't just a change in leadership; it was the end of an era. The "Process of Change" is over, and the "Paz Era" has begun. Whether he can actually fix the economy remains to be seen, but for the first time in two decades, the air in Bolivia feels different. Sorta hopeful, definitely nervous, but definitely different.