It is early 2026, and if you look at the Boeing stock ticker, things finally look… okay. Maybe better than okay. At the start of January, shares were sitting at roughly $227, and they've already climbed toward $248. That is a two-year high. For a company that spent the last half-decade as the punching bag of the aviation world, this feels like a glitch in the matrix.
But here is the thing. Most people looking at the numbers think this is just a lucky bounce or a "meme stock" recovery. They’re wrong. The real story isn't about the charts; it is about the guy sitting in the captain's chair in Seattle. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg has been on the job for about a year and a half now, and he is doing something his predecessors didn't: he's actually acting like an engineer.
The Engineer in the Corner Office
You have to understand the baggage Kelly Ortberg inherited. When he took over in August 2024, Boeing was a mess. Debt was piling up like snowdrifts. The FAA had a hard cap on how many planes they could build. Relationships with the unions were basically toxic.
Ortberg didn't do the usual corporate thing. He didn't stay in some glass tower in Arlington, Virginia. One of his first big moves? He packed his bags and moved to Seattle.
It sounds like a small PR stunt. It wasn't. By basing himself near the factory floors, he signaled that the era of "financial engineering" was over. Honestly, it was about time. Ortberg spent 35 years in aerospace, starting as an engineer at Texas Instruments before running Rockwell Collins. He knows how a plane is built, not just how to read a balance sheet.
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Why 2026 is Different
People keep asking: why is the stock surging now?
Basically, the "big rocks" are starting to move. Just this week, Boeing reached a tentative labor agreement with the SPEEA union for the Wichita plant—that's the old Spirit AeroSystems facility they finally bought back. It includes a 20% wage pool increase over the next few years and a $6,000 bonus. It’s expensive, sure. But it buys stability.
Then there's the production side. In October 2025, the FAA finally lifted the production cap on the 737 MAX. Boeing is now cleared to push toward 42 jets a month. They’re even talking about hitting 47 by this summer.
- 737 MAX 10: Currently in phase two of flight testing as of January 9, 2026.
- 787 Dreamliner: Production is ramping toward 10 per month.
- The Spirit Merger: Completed in late 2025, bringing key supply chain elements back under Boeing’s roof.
It’s not all sunshine, though. The 777X is still a headache, with deliveries pushed to 2027. And that engine de-icing issue? It’s still a hurdle for the MAX 7 and 10 certifications. But for the first time in years, the company is hitting its internal milestones rather than making excuses.
What Most People Miss About the Strategy
If you listen to the talking heads on CNBC, they talk about "free cash flow." And yeah, Boeing is finally expected to be cash-flow positive this year—to the tune of a few billion. That’s a huge swing from the $10 billion loss they posted recently.
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But the real "Ortberg Effect" is about "travelled work."
That’s an industry term for when a plane moves down the assembly line with parts missing. It’s a nightmare. It leads to mistakes. Ortberg has been obsessed with killing it. On recent calls, he’s noted that they’ve cut travelled work by 50%. This isn't sexy stuff that makes for a great TikTok, but it’s the difference between a door plug staying on and… well, you know.
The "New Boeing" Reality Check
We shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. Boeing is still carrying massive debt. The debt-to-equity ratio is still looking pretty grim, and they’re way more leveraged than Airbus.
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Also, the FAA isn't just going away. They are practically living in the factories now. Every time a bolt is turned, there's a regulator watching. Ortberg has embraced this, which is a total 180 from the old "we know better" attitude that got the company into this hole.
The competition hasn't stopped, either. While Boeing actually outsold Airbus in 2025 (1,173 net orders to 889), Airbus still has a massive lead in actual deliveries. Boeing is playing catch-up in a very expensive game.
Actionable Insights for 2026
If you're watching Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg and wondering what happens next, keep your eyes on these specific markers:
- Watch the MAX 10 Certification: This is the big one. If the FAA signs off by mid-2026, it opens the floodgates for deliveries to airlines like United and Ryanair.
- Monitor the Cash Flow: Look for "sustainably positive" numbers in the Q1 and Q2 reports. If they can stay in the black while ramping production, the turnaround is real.
- Union Peace: The Seattle SPEEA contract expires in October 2026. This will be the ultimate test of Ortberg’s "new culture." If they can avoid a strike there, the path is clear.
- Inventory Liquidation: Boeing still has a bunch of "glacier" planes—finished aircraft sitting in storage. Watch how fast they can get those into customers' hands.
The story of Boeing under Kelly Ortberg isn't a "miracle recovery." It’s a slow, grinding return to basics. It’s boring, it’s technical, and it’s exactly what the company needed.
The meme-stock crowd might be looking for a quick flip, but the real value is being built on the factory floor in Renton and Everett. If you want to understand where Boeing is going, stop looking at the stock price for a second and start looking at the delivery schedule. That's where the real truth lives.
Next Steps:
You should check the upcoming February 4 earnings report for the latest delivery guidance on the 787 program. You might also want to track the FAA's daily registry for any updates on the MAX 7 icing solution.