Scotiabank is finally moving. If you’ve been watching the BNS stock price TSX lately, you know it’s been a wild ride from the $60s to triple digits. Honestly, for years, the Bank of Nova Scotia was the "problem child" of the Big Five. It was messy. It had too much exposure to volatile Latin American markets and a stock price that moved like a glacier in January.
But things changed in 2025.
As of January 17, 2026, the stock is hovering around the $102.18 mark. It’s a massive recovery from the tariff-induced lows of early last year. The bank is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 18, which tells you investors are starting to believe in the turnaround. CEO Scott Thomson has been shouting from the rooftops about "momentum," and for once, the numbers actually back him up.
What’s Actually Driving the BNS Stock Price TSX?
Most people think bank stocks just move with interest rates. That’s only half the story here. The real catalyst has been a brutal, necessary "de-risking" strategy. Scotiabank spent decades trying to be the "International Bank," buying up assets in Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. It didn't work as well as they hoped.
Last year, they basically said "enough."
By selling off those Central American assets to Davivienda and pivotting to the U.S. with a 14.9% stake in KeyCorp, they changed their DNA. You've now got a bank that's less "emerging market gamble" and more "stable North American powerhouse." In the fourth quarter of 2025, U.S. earnings made up 16% of the total pie. That’s a huge shift. Investors love stability. They’re willing to pay a premium for a dollar earned in Ohio versus a dollar earned in Bogota.
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The Dividend Reality Check
Let’s talk about the income. Scotiabank has always been a "yield trap" in the eyes of some—high dividend, but stagnant growth.
Right now, the yield sits at roughly 4.3%.
Wait. Didn't it used to be 6%?
Yes, but that's because the stock price went up. When the price rises, the yield drops if the dividend doesn't keep pace. However, the bank just hiked the quarterly payout to $1.10 per share. For a long-term holder, that’s a rock-solid 74% payout ratio. It’s safe. It’s covered. And with the bank repurchasing nearly 11 million shares last year, there are fewer mouths to feed, making that dividend even more sustainable.
The Risks Nobody Mentions
It’s not all maple syrup and profits. Canada’s economy is hitting a weird patch in 2026. We are looking at potentially zero population growth this year because of the government's pivot on immigration.
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Why does that matter for your shares?
Fewer new people means fewer new mortgages. Fewer new credit cards. The bank is banking on "per-capita" improvements—basically getting more money out of the customers they already have. It's a tougher way to grow. Plus, there's the "CUSMA" shadow. Trade negotiations with the U.S. are looming, and if tariffs get ugly, the manufacturing heartland in Ontario takes a hit. Since BNS is heavily invested in Canadian commercial lending, they’d feel that punch immediately.
- PCLs (Provisions for Credit Losses): They are still a bit high, specifically in Mexico and Chile.
- Operating Leverage: Management hit a 3% positive leverage in 2025, which basically means they grew revenue faster than they grew expenses. They need to repeat that trick in 2026 to keep the stock above $100.
- The "KeyCorp" Factor: The U.S. expansion is expensive. If the American regional banking sector catches a cold, Scotiabank is going to sneeze.
Is It Still a Buy at $102?
If you’re looking for a quick double, look elsewhere. Canadian banks don't do that. But if you’re looking for a "re-rating" play, there’s an argument to be made.
Scotiabank is still trading at a slight discount to peers like RBC or TD when you look at historical valuations. If Thomson achieves his goal of a 14% Return on Equity (ROE)—up from the 12.5% they hit recently—the stock could easily see more "multiple expansion." Basically, the market might start valuing BNS like a premium bank rather than a discounted one.
Analysts are currently split. You've got about six "Holds" and four "Buys" on Bay Street. The average price target is creeping toward $110, but that depends entirely on the February 24 earnings report. If they miss on credit losses, expect a pullback to the mid-$90s.
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Actionable Steps for Investors
Don't just stare at the ticker. If you’re holding BNS or thinking about jumping in, here is how to play the current 2026 landscape.
1. Watch the PCL Ratio
When the Q1 2026 results drop in late February, ignore the "Adjusted Profit" headline for a second. Look at the Provision for Credit Losses. If it stays in the "high 40s to mid-50s" basis point range as predicted, the stock stays healthy. If it spikes, the "soft landing" narrative is dead.
2. Evaluate Your Geographic Exposure
If you already own a lot of U.S. banks, the "New Scotiabank" might overlap more than you think. Their 15% stake in KeyCorp means you’re now betting on the American Midwest as much as you are on the Canadian Maritimes.
3. Use the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP)
With a 4.3% yield and a stock that's finally showing price momentum, 2026 is a prime year to DRIP. Compounding works best when the underlying share price is actually moving north alongside the dividend.
4. Set a "Trailing Stop"
The stock has run up over 30% in the last year. It's okay to be a bit cautious. If you’re sitting on big gains, a trailing stop loss around 8-10% below current prices can protect your capital while leaving room for the bank to run toward $110.
Scotiabank isn't the "ugly duckling" of the TSX anymore. It’s leaner, it’s more North American, and it’s finally rewarding people who held through the lean years. Just keep an eye on those trade talks—they’re the biggest wildcard in the deck right now.