Investing in casual dining usually feels like a safe bet. People have to eat, right? But if you’ve been watching bloomin brands inc stock lately, you know the story isn't quite that simple. The company behind Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba’s Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Fleming’s has had a rough ride over the last year. Honestly, it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster for shareholders who were used to those steady quarterly checks.
Everything changed in late 2025.
The Dividend Bombshell and the Turnaround Plan
In October 2025, the Board of Directors did something that most income investors hate: they suspended the dividend entirely. For a stock that was yielding over 7% at the time, that hit like a ton of bricks. The goal, according to CEO Mike Spanos, was to reallocate that cash back into the restaurants and pay down debt. Basically, they realized they couldn't keep paying out cash while their flagship brand, Outback, was losing its edge.
The stock price reflected that pain. By the start of January 2026, bloomin brands inc stock was hovering around the $6.30 mark. It’s a far cry from the $28+ levels we saw a couple of years ago. But there’s a weird bit of optimism starting to peek through the clouds.
As of mid-January 2026, the stock has actually seen a bit of a "dead cat bounce" or maybe even a genuine recovery spark. On January 16, 2026, the stock closed at $7.67. That’s a significant jump from where it started the year, even though it's still down about 40% from its 52-week high of $12.97.
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What’s actually happening inside the kitchens?
Management isn't just sitting on their hands. They've launched a massive "turnaround strategy" that focuses almost entirely on fixing Outback. Here is the reality: Carrabba’s is actually doing great. In the third quarter of 2025, Carrabba’s saw a 4.1% jump in comparable sales. People love the pasta.
Outback, however, is the problem child.
To fix it, they’ve started cutting the menu by about 20%. They found that having too many items made the kitchen slow and the food inconsistent. They're also moving away from those "limited-time offers" that change every few weeks. You know the ones—the crazy appetizers that disappear a month later. Instead, they want to focus on "everyday value" and making sure the steaks are actually cooked right.
Leadership Shakeups and a Leaner Future
You can't change a company's culture without changing the people at the top. In August 2025, Bloomin' brought in Eric Christel as the new CFO. He came from the snacks division at Campbell’s. They also shifted the former CFO, Michael Healy, into a new role specifically focused on "Strategy and Transformation."
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It’s a clear signal to Wall Street: "We know we're in trouble, and we're putting our best people on the repair crew."
They’ve also had to make some tough calls on the physical footprint. In October 2025, they shut down 21 underperforming restaurants. Another 22 leases won't be renewed over the next few years. It’s about pruning the dead wood so the rest of the tree can grow.
- The Brazil Factor: One of the smartest moves they made was selling 67% of their Brazilian business for about $225 million. This cash was used to lower their debt-to-EBITDA ratio from 2.9x down to 2.5x. It gives them a little more breathing room with the banks.
What analysts are saying about BLMN right now
If you look at the consensus, most analysts are stuck in the "Wait and See" camp. Out of 24 analysts covering the stock in early 2026, 15 of them have a Hold rating.
There’s a huge gap in price targets, which tells you nobody is quite sure if this turnaround will stick. Some high-end estimates see the stock rebounding to $32 eventually, while the bears think it could slide back toward $6.50 if the "Remarkable Dine-In Experience" strategy fails to bring people back to the tables.
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Is Bloomin Brands Inc Stock a Buy?
Kinda depends on your risk tolerance. If you’re looking for a dividend play, look elsewhere—that tap is dry for the foreseeable future. But if you’re a contrarian who believes that Americans will always have a soft spot for a Bloomin' Onion and a decent steak, there might be value here.
The company is projecting a return to positive earnings in 2026. If they can hit their target of $0.92 per share in earnings for the full year, the current price starts to look like a bargain. But that's a big "if" in an economy where labor costs are still rising by about 3.5% a year.
Next steps for your portfolio:
If you already own bloomin brands inc stock, selling now might mean locking in a loss right as the turnaround starts to show a tiny bit of life. It’s probably worth holding through the Q1 2026 earnings report to see if the menu simplifications are actually improving restaurant-level margins. For new investors, keep a close eye on the "traffic" numbers. Comparable sales are one thing, but if the number of actual guests continues to drop, no amount of steak quality improvements will save the stock.