You're sitting at a semi-circle of green felt, the air smells vaguely of expensive filtration and desperation, and the dealer just slid a 6 and a 10 in your direction. You’ve got 16. The dealer is showing a 7. Your heart does that weird little skip because you know, statistically, you’re probably screwed. This is the moment where blackjack when to hit becomes less of a math problem and more of a test of nerves. Most people panic. They stand because they’re terrified of seeing a face card and busting, or they hit blindly because they think they "have to" get closer to 21. Both of those people are usually wrong.
Blackjack isn't about getting 21. It’s about beating the dealer.
If you want to survive a night at the tables without losing your shirt, you have to stop playing by "feel." Feel is what buys the casino a new chandelier. You need to understand the brutal reality of the math behind the cards.
The Absolute Basics of Blackjack When to Hit
Let's get one thing straight: the house has an edge for one reason and one reason only—you have to go first. If you bust, you lose, even if the dealer eventually busts too. That’s the "hidden" tax of the game.
So, when do you take another card? Generally, you’re looking at your total versus the dealer's "upcard." If the dealer has a 7, 8, 9, 10, or Ace, they are in a strong position. They are likely to end up with a high total. If you have anything less than a 17, you basically have to hit. Standing on a 15 or 16 against a dealer's 7 is a slow death. Sure, you might stay in the game for another thirty seconds, but you’re handing the casino your money on a silver platter.
On the flip side, if the dealer is showing a 4, 5, or 6, they are "weak." They are more likely to bust. In these scenarios, you can afford to be conservative. You don’t need a 20 to win; you just need to not be the one who goes over 21 first.
The 16 vs. 10 Nightmare
This is the most common "bad" hand in the game. You have 16. The dealer has a 10. Honestly, it’s a loser’s hand. Whether you hit or stand, the odds are against you. But if you're playing the long game—the way pros like Edward Thorp (the father of card counting) laid out in Beat the Dealer—you hit.
Why? Because even though you’re likely to bust, you have a slightly better chance of winning by hitting than by standing. When you stand on 16 against a 10, you lose about 75% of the time. If you hit, you lose about 70% of the time. That 5% difference might not seem like much in a single hand, but over a lifetime of play, it’s the difference between a fun hobby and a drained bank account.
Soft Totals Change Everything
A "soft" hand is any hand containing an Ace that can still be counted as 11 without busting. These are your best friends. If you have a Soft 17 (Ace-6), you should always hit or double down. You literally cannot bust with one card. If you draw a 10, your 17 just becomes a 7, and you hit again. There is no mathematical reason to stand on a Soft 17, yet I see people do it every single weekend at the local tribal casinos. They think 17 is "good enough." It isn't. Against most dealer cards, 17 is a losing hand.
The Strategy for Hard Totals
A hard total is a hand without an Ace, or an Ace that must be counted as 1.
- 8 or less: Always hit. No exceptions. You can't bust, so improve that hand.
- 9: Hit if the dealer has a 2 or a 7 through Ace. If they have a 3, 4, 5, or 6, you should actually be doubling down.
- 10 or 11: These are your power hands. You usually want to double down here, but if the dealer has an Ace and you have a 10, just hit.
- 12: This is the "awkward" hand. Hit if the dealer has a 2 or 3. Stand if the dealer has a 4, 5, or 6. If the dealer has a 7 or higher, hit.
- 13 through 16: These are the "Stiff Hands." If the dealer shows a 2 through 6, stand. If the dealer shows a 7 through Ace, hit.
Why the Dealer’s Upcard Dictates Your Life
You have to realize that the dealer is a robot. They have no choice. In most casinos, the dealer must hit on everything 16 or below and stand on 17. Some casinos make the dealer hit on a "Soft 17," which actually gives the house a slightly better edge.
Because the dealer's moves are predictable, your moves must be too. If the dealer is showing a 5, their chances of busting are roughly 42%. If you have a 13, your chance of busting if you hit is about 38%. It is a game of shifting percentages. You aren't playing against a person; you're playing against a deck of 52 (or 416, if it's an 8-deck shoe) objects.
Surrender: The Tool You’re Ignoring
Many modern tables allow for "Late Surrender." If you have that 16 against a dealer's 10, and the casino allows surrender, do it. You give up half your bet and keep the other half. Most players are too proud to surrender. They think it’s "giving up."
It’s not giving up. It’s smart risk management. If you know you have a 75% chance of losing the full bet, wouldn't you rather lose 100% of half the bet instead? It’s basic math. Real pros love the surrender option because it flattens the variance.
Common Misconceptions That Kill Your Bankroll
People love to talk about "flow" or "the guy at the end of the table taking the dealer's bust card." Let's be clear: that is nonsense.
The "Third Base" player (the last one to act before the dealer) cannot "ruin" the deck. The cards are random. While their decision might affect the outcome of one specific hand, in the long run, it’s just as likely to help you as it is to hurt you. Don't get angry at the tourist who hits on a 15 against a 6. They’re playing badly, sure, but it doesn't statistically change your win rate over time.
Another big one: "The dealer is due to bust." No. The deck has no memory. Each hand is its own statistical event, especially with continuous shuffling machines (CSMs). If you see a CSM at a table, the game is basically a giant slot machine. Hit and stand according to basic strategy, but don't expect "patterns" to emerge.
How to Practice Without Losing Cash
You shouldn't be learning blackjack when to hit while you’re actually betting $25 a hand. That’s an expensive education.
- Use a Strategy Card: They are legal in almost every casino. You can literally hold a small plastic card at the table that tells you exactly what to do. If a dealer tells you that you can't, they’re usually wrong, but just ask politely.
- Apps: There are a million free blackjack trainers. Use one that alerts you when you make a "sub-optimal" move.
- Low Stakes: Find a $5 table or use an online simulator.
Actionable Steps for Your Next Session
If you’re heading to the casino tonight, do these three things:
📖 Related: Roblox God Mode Script: Why Most Players Never Get It Working
- Memorize the "12 vs. 2 or 3" rule. It’s the one most people mess up. You hit a 12 against a 2 or 3. You stand on 12 against a 4, 5, or 6.
- Never take Insurance. It’s a side bet that the dealer has a 10-value card under their Ace. Unless you are counting cards and know the deck is rich in 10s, insurance is a sucker bet with a high house edge.
- Watch the table rules. Look for "3 to 2" payouts for Blackjack. If the table pays "6 to 5," walk away. The "6 to 5" payout increases the house edge by about 1.4%, which makes it almost impossible to win in the long run, regardless of how well you know when to hit.
The goal isn't to win every hand. That's impossible. The goal is to make the mathematically "correct" decision every single time. If you do that, you reduce the house edge to less than 0.5%. At that point, you’re just waiting for a lucky streak to put you in the black.
Focus on the soft hands. Don't be afraid to hit that 16 when the dealer is showing a 7 or higher. Don't be afraid to stand on a 13 when the dealer is showing a 4. It feels counter-intuitive to stand on a low number, but in blackjack, sometimes doing nothing is the strongest move you can make. Keep your head, keep your strategy card handy, and stop letting "gut feelings" dictate your bankroll.