If you just look at the standings, you’d think the Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay game is a foregone conclusion. On one side, you have the Lightning—a perennial powerhouse, a well-oiled machine led by Jon Cooper, and a team that basically treats the playoffs like a secondary home. On the other, the Chicago Blackhawks are still navigating the turbulent waters of a massive rebuild, leaning heavily on a 20-year-old kid to carry the franchise on his shoulders.
But hockey is weird.
Seriously. Last time these two met on October 23, 2025, the Lightning were heavy favorites. They were at home in the Benchmark International Arena. They had Nikita Kucherov feeding passes like he has eyes in the back of his head. And they lost. Ryan Donato decided to play hero, netting two goals—including the dagger with just 54 seconds left—to lead Chicago to a 3-2 upset. It’s those kinds of moments that make this specific cross-conference rivalry way more interesting than the "dynasty vs. rebuilder" narrative suggests.
The Connor Bedard Factor and the "New" Chicago
Everyone talks about Connor Bedard. It’s hard not to. He’s 20 years old and already looks like he’s playing a different sport than half the guys on the ice. In the 2025-26 season, he’s been a human highlight reel. We’re talking about a kid who has already put up 47 points in 35 games this year.
But here’s the thing: Chicago isn't just the Bedard show anymore.
The Blackhawks have quietly built a supporting cast that actually shows up. Tyler Bertuzzi has been a massive addition, bringing that "sandpaper" style of play that the team desperately needed. He’s currently sitting at 22 goals, leading the team. Then you have the youth movement beyond just the #1 pick. Frank Nazar is starting to look like a legitimate NHL center, and Spencer Knight—who Chicago took a chance on—has been a revelation in net. Knight’s high-danger save percentage is hovering around .884, which is elite by any metric.
When you watch the Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay matchups lately, you see a Chicago team that isn't afraid to get physical. They aren't just trying to survive; they’re trying to dictate the pace. It’s a far cry from the team that was getting blown out 6-1 every other night just two seasons ago.
Why Tampa Bay is Still the Standard
Despite that October slip-up, the Tampa Bay Lightning are still the "big bad" of the Atlantic Division. They currently sit at 29-13-4. That’s a 102-point pace. Nikita Kucherov is doing Kucherov things, leading the league in assists and sitting at 69 points through 42 games. Honestly, it’s a joke how easy he makes it look.
The Lightning’s roster is a lesson in consistency.
- Jake Guentzel: Since signing that massive seven-year deal, he’s been their most consistent goal-scorer. He’s got 20 goals already and is a lock for the Olympics.
- Victor Hedman: The captain. Still playing 24+ minutes a night and making it look like a casual skate in the park.
- Andrei Vasilevskiy: He’s "The Big Cat." Even when he has an off night, he’s capable of stealing a game with 40 saves.
The Lightning aren't just talented; they’re smart. They’ve been through the wars. They know how to exploit a young team’s mistakes. In their last few games, they've been focusing on a heavy forecheck that forces defensemen like Alex Vlasic and Kevin Korchinski to make split-second decisions under immense pressure.
Head-to-Head: The Stat Nerd Corner
If we’re being real, the history between these two is dominated by Tampa. Historically, the Lightning have a winning record against Chicago in the regular season. But the gap is closing.
| Statistic (2025-26 Season) | Tampa Bay Lightning | Chicago Blackhawks |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Per Game | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Power Play % | 23.3% | 20.0% |
| Penalty Kill % | 81.5% | 78.2% |
| Record | 29-13-4 | 19-21-7 |
The Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay dynamic is basically a clash of styles. Tampa wants to slow things down, set up their lethal power play, and let their veterans pick you apart. Chicago wants to turn it into a track meet. They want Bedard and Nazar flying through the neutral zone at 22 mph.
What to Watch for in the Next Matchup
The two teams meet again on January 23, 2026. This is a massive game for both. Tampa is trying to fend off a surging Florida Panthers team for the top spot in the Atlantic. Chicago is hovering just below .500, trying to prove they belong in the conversation for a Wild Card spot in the West.
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Keep an eye on the goaltending duel. If Spencer Knight starts for Chicago, he’s going to face a barrage of shots from Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel (who, by the way, used to play for Chicago and always seems to play with a chip on his shoulder against them). Hagel is having a career year with 42 points. He’s fast, he’s mean, and he knows exactly how to frustrate the Blackhawks' defensive structure.
Also, look at the faceoff circle. Chicago has been struggling there—sitting at about 47%. Against a team like Tampa, which wins 51% of its draws, losing the puck on the opening of a power play is a death sentence.
Misconceptions About the Rivalry
Most people think this is a "nothing" game because the teams are in different conferences. Wrong.
Because of the schedule, they only play twice a year. Every game counts. For the Lightning, losing to a "rebuilding" team is a stain on their record that affects home-ice advantage in the playoffs. For the Blackhawks, beating a team like Tampa is the ultimate litmus test. It proves that the "plan" is actually working.
People also assume Chicago is a one-line team. It’s not. Their third line, featuring guys like Jason Dickinson and Nick Foligno, is one of the hardest-working units in the league. They might not score 30 goals, but they make life miserable for guys like Anthony Cirelli.
Actionable Insights for the Next Game:
If you’re betting or just watching for fun, here is what actually matters:
- Track the First 10 Minutes: Chicago tends to start hot but fades. If they don't score early, Tampa’s depth usually takes over by the second period.
- Special Teams is Everything: Tampa has a top-10 power play. If Chicago takes more than three penalties, they lose. Period.
- The Hagel Factor: Brandon Hagel is a "Blackhawk killer." Watch his ice time; when he's on with Point, they are almost impossible to stop in transition.
- Bedard’s Shot Volume: In games where Bedard has 5+ shots on goal, Chicago’s win percentage jumps by nearly 20%.
The Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay matchup isn't just another game on the calendar. It’s a glimpse into the future of the NHL versus the established gold standard. Whether you're a fan of the Original Six or the Florida powerhouse, this is the kind of hockey that reminds you why the regular season actually matters.
Check the local listings for the January 23rd game; it’s likely going to be on ESPN or the FanDuel Sports Network depending on your region. Keep an eye on the late injury reports for Seth Jones, as his presence on the blue line is the only thing keeping Chicago's defensive structure from collapsing against Tampa's elite forecheck.