It's been a wild ride for the veteran-founded coffee company. Honestly, if you’ve been following the black rifle coffee stock price over the last few years, you know it feels more like a rollercoaster than a steady climb. As of mid-January 2026, the stock (NYSE: BRCC) is hovering right around that psychological $1.00 mark—closing at $0.98 on Friday, January 16.
It’s a bit of a nail-biter.
When a stock dips into penny stock territory, the "delisting" whispers start. But is the brand actually in trouble, or is the market just being predictably harsh on consumer-packaged goods? Let's get into the weeds of what’s actually happening with the numbers.
The January 2026 Reality Check
Earlier this week, the management team headed to the 28th Annual ICR Conference to give everyone a peek behind the curtain. The preliminary numbers for the full fiscal year 2025 are out. Basically, they hit their targets, but with a few caveats that made the market twitch.
- Revenue: Expected to be at least $395 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA: Aiming for at least $20 million.
- The Catch: A $1.4 million non-cash impairment charge.
This charge came from a formulation change—basically, they had a bunch of raw materials they couldn't use anymore. It’s not a "people aren't buying the coffee" problem, but it did shave a bit off the gross margin. They're now looking at 34.5% to 34.7% for the year.
It’s easy to get lost in the spreadsheets. However, the real story for investors isn't just a million-dollar inventory write-off. It’s about whether Black Rifle can actually pivot from being a "lifestyle brand" to a profitable beverage titan.
The Great DTC vs. Wholesale Pivot
For a long time, Black Rifle was the king of Direct-to-Consumer (DTC). They had a massive subscription base. But lately, people are buying their coffee where they buy their groceries.
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Wholesale is where the growth is. In the third quarter of 2025, wholesale revenue jumped to $67 million, up over 5%. Meanwhile, the DTC side of the house dropped by about 4%. It's a fundamental shift in how the business operates. Selling a bag of coffee on your own website is high margin, but selling a million cans of RTD (Ready-to-Drink) espresso in Walmart is where the scale happens.
Analyzing the Black Rifle Coffee Stock Price Volatility
Why is the stock sitting at a buck?
Some analysts, like those at Telsey Advisory Group, have been surprisingly bullish, keeping price targets way up in the $2.50 to $8.00 range. But the market isn't biting yet. There’s a massive gap between what the "experts" think the company is worth and what traders are willing to pay today.
The volatility is roughly 8% weekly. That’s high. If you're looking for a "set it and forget it" dividend stock, this isn't it. Black Rifle doesn't pay dividends, and they likely won't for a long time. Every spare cent is being funneled into things like their energy drink launch and expanding their "Outpost" physical stores.
The Energy Drink Gamble
In 2025, they went all-in on Black Rifle Energy. This was a massive move to compete with the likes of Monster and Celsius. It’s a $20 billion market.
Management basically told everyone to expect the energy launch to drag down margins temporarily. They were right. The costs of getting those cans onto shelves and into the hands of 12 priority markets (via their Keurig Dr Pepper partnership) was expensive.
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If the energy line takes off in 2026, the stock could see a massive correction. If it fizzles? The $1.00 support level might start looking more like a ceiling than a floor.
What the Insiders Are Doing
Usually, when a stock is down 60% over a year, you see the C-suite jumping ship. That hasn't really happened here. In late 2025, we actually saw some independent directors increasing their stakes. One director picked up 44% more stock in November.
That doesn't guarantee a turnaround, obviously. But it does suggest the people who see the internal data every day think the current black rifle coffee stock price is undervalued.
The Bull Case vs. The Bear Reality
The bulls see a brand with a cult-like following. They see the 54% All Commodity Volume (ACV)—which is a fancy way of saying they are finally getting decent shelf space in major retailers. They see a company that is finally narrowing its net losses (only $1.2 million in Q3 2025).
The bears? They see the Altman Z-Score of 1.25.
For the non-finance nerds: that’s a "distress zone" score. It implies a higher-than-average risk of bankruptcy within two years if things don't improve. They also see green coffee inflation, which has been a nightmare for every roaster on the planet. When the price of unroasted beans doubles, your margins get crushed.
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Where the Stock Goes From Here
So, what do you actually do with this information?
If you're holding BRCC, you're likely waiting for the Q4 2025 finalized earnings report, which should drop around March 2026. That will be the "moment of truth" for the energy drink rollout and the 2026 guidance.
Right now, the stock is technically "oversold" based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is sitting near 35. That often means a short-term bounce is coming. But a "bounce" and a "recovery" are two very different things.
Actionable Insights for Investors:
- Watch the $0.93 mark: This is the 52-week low. If it breaks below that, there isn't much support underneath to stop a further slide.
- Monitor the ACV numbers: If their retail distribution stalls below 60%, the growth story is essentially over.
- Keep an eye on coffee futures: If green coffee prices stay high through 2026, Black Rifle will struggle to hit that 40% gross margin target they've been dreaming of.
- Don't ignore the debt: They used an equity offering in mid-2025 to pay off their revolver debt. This was smart—it cleared the balance sheet—but it also diluted existing shareholders.
The black rifle coffee stock price is currently a bet on brand loyalty versus commodity reality. It's a speculative play, plain and simple. If they can prove the "Energy" launch wasn't a fluke, 2026 could be the year they finally move out of the penny stock basement.
For those tracking the daily moves, keep an eye on the $1.01 and $1.16 resistance levels. Breaking those would be the first sign that the "Hold" ratings from analysts might finally turn into "Buy" signals.
Next Steps for You:
Check the official Black Rifle Investor Relations page for the 10-K filing in March 2026 to see if the actual revenue matched the $395 million preliminary estimate. Also, track the 'KC' coffee futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to see if raw material costs are cooling down, which would provide an immediate tailwind for their margins.