It’s January 2026. The dust from "Black Monday" hasn’t even settled yet, and the NFL landscape looks… jarring.
Honestly, if you took a snapshot of the league right now, you’d see a massive void. Mike Tomlin, the guy who basically defined consistency for nearly two decades in Pittsburgh, is gone. He stepped down after 19 seasons. Think about that. Most of the players in this year’s draft were in diapers when he took the job.
With Tomlin out, and the recent firings of Raheem Morris in Atlanta and Mike McDaniel in Miami, the league is staring at a reality that feels like a step backward. It’s weird. We’re in an era where diversity is talked about in every single boardroom, yet the actual sidelines are looking thinner than ever.
As of this week, there are only three Black head coaches left standing in a 32-team league: Aaron Glenn with the Jets, Todd Bowles in Tampa, and DeMeco Ryans in Houston. That’s it. For a league where roughly 67% of the players are Black, the math just feels broken.
The Glass Ceiling Nobody Wants to Admit
People love to point at the Rooney Rule. It’s the NFL’s go-to shield whenever the hiring numbers get criticized. Created in 2003 and named after the late Dan Rooney, the rule was supposed to fix the "old boys' club" mentality by requiring teams to interview minority candidates for top jobs.
But here is what most people get wrong: the rule doesn't guarantee a job. It guarantees a conversation.
Sometimes those conversations feel real. Other times? They feel like a checkbox. Remember the Brian Flores lawsuit? That blew the doors off the idea that every interview is conducted in good faith. Even now, in 2026, the league has tightened the rules—requiring two in-person interviews with external minority candidates—but the results are still swinging like a pendulum.
One year we celebrate a "record" of six or seven Black head coaches, and the next, we’re back down to three. It’s a cycle of "one step forward, two steps back" that makes fans and players alike pretty cynical.
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The "One and Done" Phenomenon
There’s this unspoken pressure that Black head coaches feel. You can see it in the data. Historically, Black coaches have often been hired into "bridge" situations—teams that are already crashing and burning.
If they don’t turn the ship around in 12 months? They’re out.
Look at David Culley or Lovie Smith in Houston a few years back. They were basically hired to take the hits while the franchise rebuilt, then discarded as soon as the "real" candidate was ready. It’s a brutal way to run a career. Statistics have actually shown that Black coaches often need a higher winning percentage just to keep their jobs compared to their white counterparts.
It’s not just about getting the job. It’s about the "leash." How much room do you have to fail? In the NFL, that leash seems remarkably short for Black leaders.
Where the Pipeline Clogs Up
If you want to understand why there aren't more Black head coaches in the NFL, you have to look at the "Coordinator Problem."
The NFL is currently obsessed with "offensive gurus." Everyone wants the next Sean McVay—a young, energetic play-caller who can turn a quarterback into a superstar. For a long time, Black coaches were funneled into defensive roles or "player motivation" roles.
- The Quarterback Connection: Most head coaches come from the offensive side, specifically the QB room.
- Defensive Bias: Many of the most talented Black coaches, like Aaron Glenn or Vance Joseph, are defensive specialists. In today's NFL, that’s almost a disadvantage during hiring season.
- The Networking Gap: Owners tend to hire people they "know" or people who look like the guys they've had success with before. It’s human nature, sure, but it’s also a barrier.
Basically, if you aren't calling plays for a top-10 offense, your chances of getting that "expert" label from an owner are slim. We're starting to see a shift, but it’s slow. Very slow.
The 2026 Coaching Carousel: Who is Next?
Right now, there are nine openings across the league. NINE.
The pressure is on. The NFL knows the optics are bad. With names like Aaron Glenn and Ejiro Evero constantly topping the "most prepared" lists, there’s no excuse of a "lack of talent."
Vance Joseph is out there. Matt Burke is making waves. The candidates exist. The question is whether owners are willing to look past the "offensive guru" trend and hire the best leader of men.
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Because let’s be real: coaching isn’t just about X’s and O’s. It’s about managing a locker room of 53 millionaires and keeping them moving in the same direction. Mike Tomlin did that better than almost anyone in history, and he did it without ever having a losing season for nearly two decades. If that isn’t the blueprint, what is?
Real Actionable Steps for the League
If the NFL actually wants to fix this—and not just put out PR statements—a few things need to happen.
- Fix the Coordinator Pipeline: Teams need to intentionally place diverse candidates in "QB Coach" and "Offensive Coordinator" roles earlier in their careers.
- Transparency in Interviews: The league needs a way to audit whether an interview was "sham" or legitimate.
- Owner Accountability: At the end of the day, it’s 32 owners making these calls. If the numbers don't move, the pressure needs to stay on the people signing the checks.
The 2026 hiring cycle will be a massive litmus test. Will we see the number of Black head coaches climb back up to five or six? Or will the "And then there were three" headline become the new permanent reality?
Keep an eye on the Raiders and the Falcons this month. They’ve been vocal about their processes, but as any NFL fan knows, talk is cheap. The wins—and the hires—are all that matter.
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For anyone following this, the next move is clear: watch the coordinator hires this month. The guys getting the big "OC" jobs today are the ones who will be leading franchises in 2028. If that pipeline stays homogenous, the head coaching ranks will too.