Horse racing is a game of inches, but honestly, it’s mostly a game of geometry. If you've ever stood on the rail at Pimlico Race Course, you know exactly what I mean. The dirt there has a specific kind of memory. When the black eyed susan draw is announced every May, the room goes quiet because everyone—from the big-shot trainers to the guys betting their lunch money—knows that a bad post position is basically a death sentence for a three-year-old filly.
The George E. Mitchell Black-Eyed Susan Stakes isn't just a "Friday race." It is the de facto second jewel of the Filly Triple Crown. It’s 1 1/8 miles of grueling, tactical warfare. And the battle starts long before the gates open. It starts at the draw.
The Brutal Reality of the Black Eyed Susan Draw
Post positions aren't just numbers. They are the difference between a clean trip and eating kickback for nine furlongs. At Pimlico, the first turn comes at you fast. If a filly draws the far outside—say, post 10 or 11—she has to work twice as hard just to avoid being hung out wide.
Think about the physics. A horse stuck in the "parking lot" has to sprint early to get over. If she doesn't, she’s losing significant ground on every turn. That’s why the black eyed susan draw is so nerve-wracking. You want the rail, but you don't want to be pinned against it.
The "sweet spot" at Pimlico for this race is historically posts 2 through 5. It gives the jockey options. You can see the speed to your outside, and you aren't immediately squeezed by the "pinch" that often happens at the start when the outside horses dive for the lead.
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What the 2025 Draw Taught Us
Look at the most recent running. In May 2025, we saw a masterclass in how to handle a specific draw. The track was sloppy—a mess, really—after a massive storm delayed the race by over an hour.
Margie’s Intention, the eventual winner, drew post 3. That was a gift. Jockey Flavien Prat didn't panic when she broke inward and brushed against Princess Aliyah. Because he was toward the inside, he could immediately settle, save ground, and wait for the gaps.
Compare that to the fillies stuck on the outside that day. They were essentially spinning their wheels in the mud while Margie's Intention was "grinding" (as Prat called it) along the shortest path possible. She won by three-quarters of a length. If she had drawn post 9? She likely loses.
Why Trainers Obsess Over Post Positions
If you talk to a trainer like Brad Cox or Todd Pletcher, they won’t tell you they’re scared of a draw. They’re too professional for that. But they will talk about "trip mapping."
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- The Speed Horse: If a horse like Paris Lily draws inside, she has to go. There’s no choice. If she misses the break, she’s buried.
- The Stalker: These are the horses that benefit most from the black eyed susan draw. They want to sit 3 or 4 lengths off the lead. A middle post is their playground.
- The Closer: They just need to avoid being fanned five-wide at the quarter pole.
History is littered with champions who overcame bad draws, but they are the exception. Hall of Famers like Serena’s Song (1995) or Silverbulletday (1999) had the raw talent to win from anywhere. Most fillies don't. They need the geometry to work in their favor.
The Legend of Silverbulletday
In 1999, Silverbulletday didn't just win; she set the stakes record at 1:47.83. People still talk about that race like it happened yesterday. She was so dominant that her post position almost didn't matter, but Bob Baffert still breathed a sigh of relief when she drew comfortably.
When a horse is that much better than the field, the draw is a formality. For the other 99% of the horses in the history of the Black-Eyed Susan, the draw is their destiny.
Historical Trends You Can’t Ignore
Let’s talk stats. Since 1976, the win percentages for certain posts at 1 1/8 miles at Pimlico show a clear bias. The inside isn't always the "golden rail" people think it is, especially if the track is tiring.
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However, the win rate for the 1-hole is significantly higher than for post 10. It’s not just a trend; it’s a mathematical reality of left-handed dirt racing. The horse in the 1-hole travels the fewest feet. Period.
How to Read the Draw for Your Next Bet
When the next black eyed susan draw rolls around, don't just look at the morning line odds. Look at the styles.
- Check the "Early Speed" (E): Find the horses that want the lead. If three of them are drawn next to each other in posts 1, 2, and 3, expect a "suicide pace." They will burn each other out.
- Look for the "Lone Closer": If a closer draws the rail, it's risky. They can get trapped behind a wall of tired horses.
- The Tactical Outside: Sometimes, a horse with a bit of speed drawing outside is actually good. It allows the jockey to see the whole field and choose when to drop in.
The Black-Eyed Susan is a race of prestige. It has produced 23 champions. It is the "counterpart" to the Preakness for a reason. But for the fillies, the road to the winner's circle is paved with the numbers pulled out of a blind draw.
If you're looking for an actionable edge, wait for the post-draw interviews. Listen to the jockeys. If they sound relieved, it's because they know they just got a 2-length head start without even running a step.
Next time you’re handicapping the Friday card at Pimlico, pull up the track map. Visualize the run to the first turn. If your favorite horse is stuck in the 12-hole, maybe it’s time to look at the "grinder" sitting comfortably in the 4-post.
Actionable Insights for the Next Race:
- Track the Weather: If rain is in the forecast, the inside rail often becomes a "trap" where the mud is deepest. Look for horses drawn 4-7 who can stay in the middle of the track.
- Jockey History: John Velazquez has won this race five times. He knows the Pimlico turns better than almost anyone. If he gets a good draw, he’s almost impossible to beat.
- Distance Pedigree: This is a 9-furlong race. Many fillies are "stopping" at a mile. A good draw saves enough energy to handle that extra eighth of a mile.