If you look at the raw data for the Birmingham AL metro population right now, you might think you’re seeing a city in a bit of a stalemate. It’s weird. On one hand, you’ve got these headlines about people fleeing the city center, but then you look at the metro-wide numbers and they’re actually ticking upward.
Honestly, it’s a tale of two Birminghams.
As of early 2026, the Birmingham-Hoover Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is hovering around 1,125,000 to 1,130,000 people. That’s not a massive spike, but it is growth. Specifically, the metro area saw an increase of about 6,000 to 7,000 people over the last recorded year, which is a steady, if not explosive, 0.5% to 0.9% climb. But here is the kicker: while the metro area grows, the city of Birmingham itself has seen its population dip below 195,000 for the first time in decades.
The Suburban Shift and Birmingham AL Metro Population Dynamics
So, where is everyone going? They aren't leaving Alabama; they’re just moving to the edges. If you drive twenty minutes south into Shelby County, you’ll see exactly what’s happening. Towns like Chelsea, Helena, and Calera are exploding.
It’s basically a massive game of musical chairs.
- Jefferson County (the core) has been losing residents via domestic migration—about 2.9 per 1,000 people recently.
- Shelby County and St. Clair County are catching those same people.
- International migration is actually the secret weapon keeping the numbers in the black. Without people moving in from outside the U.S., Jefferson County's numbers would look a lot bleaker.
Thomas Spencer, a researcher at the Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama (PARCA), has pointed out that this isn't just a Birmingham thing—it’s a trend across many older Southern industrial hubs. People want new roofs. They want the 2026 version of a "smart home" in a neighborhood that didn't exist five years ago.
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Why the Birmingham AL Metro Population Still Matters
You’ve probably heard people say Huntsville is the "new" Birmingham. And yeah, Huntsville is growing faster. It’s got the rockets and the tech. But the Birmingham AL metro population remains the largest in the state by a long shot. It’s more than double the size of the Huntsville metro area.
Why does that matter? Infrastructure and influence.
The economic engine here is still massive. We’re talking about UAB (University of Alabama at Birmingham), which employs over 28,000 people. You’ve got Regions Financial, Alabama Power, and a healthcare corridor that serves the entire Southeast. When you have a million people in one area, the "gravity" of the market stays strong, even if the growth isn't as flashy as Nashville or Atlanta.
The Real Estate Reality
Real estate in the metro is a bit of a puzzle right now. In late 2025 and into 2026, we’ve seen interest rates stabilize around 6.2%. It’s not the 3% we saw during the pandemic, but it’s enough to keep the market moving.
The median home price in the city of Birmingham is surprisingly affordable—around $155,000 to $160,000—but the suburbs are a different story. In places like Mountain Brook or Vestavia Hills, you’re looking at figures that would make your head spin. This price gap is actually pushing more young professionals to look at "revitalization" areas like Avondale or Woodlawn, even if the census data hasn't fully caught up to that "vibe shift" yet.
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Breaking Down the Demographics
If we look at who is actually living here in 2026, the diversity is shifting. The city of Birmingham is roughly 67% Black, but the broader metro area is much more of a mosaic.
- Age Gaps: The metro has an aging population in the inner suburbs (Mountain Brook, Homewood) and a younger, family-oriented surge in the outer ring (Chelsea, McCalla).
- Education: About 30.7% of city residents have a bachelor's degree, but that number jumps significantly when you include the "over the mountain" suburbs.
- Natural Change: Here’s a sobering fact—deaths have actually outnumbered births in several parts of the metro recently. This "negative natural change" is why migration is so critical for the population's survival.
It's kinda wild to think that the city's future depends so heavily on people moving in from other countries and other states, rather than just growing from within.
What People Get Wrong About the Growth
Most people think "no growth" means "dying." That’s just not true here. Birmingham is maturing.
We’re seeing a shift from "quantity" to "quality." The city might not be adding 20,000 people a year like Austin, but the jobs being added are high-value. The tech scene at Innovation Depot and the expansion of the UAB Medical District are attracting specialists who spend money.
The "Magic City" got its name because it grew like magic during the iron and steel boom. Today, the magic is more about the service sector and specialized manufacturing. Mercedes-Benz and Honda are still huge players in the surrounding counties, providing the kind of blue-collar stability that other metros have lost.
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Practical Steps for Staying Informed
If you're looking at the Birmingham AL metro population because you’re thinking of moving here or investing in property, don't just look at the city limits. Look at the "Ring Counties."
Check the building permits in Shelby and St. Clair. Those are the leading indicators of where the population will be in five years. If you're looking for a "deal," the western side of the metro is seeing more industrial investment, while the south remains the residential king.
Keep an eye on the 2026 Census Bureau mid-year estimates. These will be the first "clean" looks at the post-pandemic migration patterns without the "noise" of the 2020-2022 era.
Ultimately, Birmingham isn't shrinking—it's just spreading out. The metro is a sprawling, complex organism that is far more stable than the headlines about city-center declines might lead you to believe.