Ever stood at the base of Swift Current and thought it was a "bluebird" day, only to reach the summit of Lone Peak and find yourself in a total whiteout? Honestly, Big Sky weather is a bit of a local legend—and not always for the right reasons. If you're looking at a generic big sky mt forecast on your phone, you're likely getting the data for the town or the meadow, which is about as useful as a screen door on a submarine when you're trying to figure out if the Tram is going to run.
The reality of 11,166 feet is that the atmosphere doesn't care about your vacation plans. Right now, for Thursday, January 15, 2026, the current temperature is sitting at 19°F with a northwest wind at 7 mph. But that "feels like" temperature? It's a brisk 9°F. If you’re heading out for some night turns or a late dinner at the Village, keep in mind we’ve got mostly cloudy skies and a 10% chance of snow. It’s the kind of chill that sneaks under your shell if you aren't layered up.
The 10-Day Reality Check
Most people check the weather once and call it good. That's a mistake. In the Northern Rockies, the "standard" forecast is really just a polite suggestion from a computer in Maryland. Here is what the next week actually looks like based on the latest data.
Today, Thursday, January 15, we hit a high of 37°F under sunny skies, but the night is bringing a shift. Expect light snow later with a low of 11°F. The wind is picking up too, gusting from the northwest at 15 mph.
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Tomorrow, Friday, January 16, things cool down significantly. We’re looking at a high of only 20°F and a low of 10°F. It’ll be partly sunny, so the views will be there, but that 11 mph wind will bite. Saturday looks like the winner for the weekend with a high of 32°F and clear skies, followed by a very stable Sunday at 24°F.
If you’re planning further out:
- Monday, Jan 19: Partly sunny, high of 27°F, low of 10°F. Calm winds at 4 mph.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: Cloudier day, high of 31°F. Chance of snow bumps up to 20% overnight.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: This is our next real weather window. Light snow during the day and snow showers at night. High of 27°F.
Why Your App Is Probably Lying To You
Microclimates. That’s the word of the day. Big Sky isn't just one "place" when it comes to weather. You have the Meadow Village (the "bottom"), the Mountain Village (the "middle"), and the Summit (the "oh boy").
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The temperature difference between the base and the top can be 20 degrees or more. Sometimes, we even get temperature inversions where it's actually warmer at the summit than in the parking lot. You’ll be sweating at the top of the Tram and shivering in the lift line at Six Shooter.
Current humidity is sitting at 79% tonight, which is high for Montana. That usually means the snow will feel a bit "stickier" than the usual cold-smoke powder we brag about. When you see a big sky mt forecast mentioning "light snow" with 20% probability, like we see for Wednesday the 21st, that often translates to a few inches of fresh "dust on crust" at the top, even if the town stays dry.
Snow Depth and What It Means
As of mid-January 2026, the mountain is in great shape.
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- Base Depth: Hovering around 30 to 44 inches depending on where you measure.
- Acres Open: 5,182 out of 5,850. Basically, the whole playground is open.
- Recent Trends: We’ve seen about 8 inches of new snow in the last 7 days. It’s not a "dump," but it’s enough to keep the groomers soft.
How to Actually Read the Wind
Wind is the true boss at Big Sky. If the northwest winds exceed 30 or 40 mph, the high-altitude lifts—especially the Tram—start to get twitchy. Tonight’s wind is a gentle 7 mph from the northwest, but earlier today it was hitting 15 mph.
When you see "northwest" in the forecast, it means the wind is hitting Lone Peak's shoulder. This can create massive drifts in the Gullies but can also scour the ridge lines down to the rock. You want to look for those low-wind days, like Sunday the 18th (4 mph), if you’re planning to tackle the technical terrain.
Packing for the 2026 Season
Forget the heavy, single-layer parka. You’ll regret it. The UV index is currently low (0 or 1), but the high-altitude sun is still brutal on your skin. Even on a "cloudy" Tuesday, you’re getting hit with reflected rays from the snow.
- The Base Layer: Merino wool is king. Synthetic is fine, but wool doesn't smell like a locker room after two days of hiking the Headwaters.
- The Mid: A light "puffy" or a heavy fleece.
- The Shell: Needs to be windproof. Period.
- Goggles: Bring a low-light lens. With "mostly cloudy" conditions becoming the norm over the next few days, you’ll need the contrast to see the bumps.
Honestly, the best way to handle the Big Sky MT forecast is to check it the morning of, then look out the window, and then pack an extra layer anyway. The mountain makes its own rules.
Actionable Next Steps:
Keep a close eye on the Friday morning update. With the high dropping from 37°F to 20°F in 24 hours, the surface is going to firm up fast. If you're skiing Friday, stick to the groomed runs in the morning to let the sun soften things up, or head over to the Madison side where the trees might offer some protection from that northwest wind. Saturday is looking like your best bet for a "Bluebird" day, so make sure your batteries are charged for photos at the summit.