Honestly, if you're still looking at the Big East through the lens of three years ago, you're basically watching a different sport. The 2025-2026 season has been a absolute fever dream. We’ve got Rick Pitino trying to turn Queens into the center of the basketball universe, Dan Hurley somehow keeping the UConn machine humming after losing half his roster, and a bottom-tier that looks like a weekly trap for anyone who doesn't show up.
Most big east basketball projections you’ll see right now are just regurgitating preseason polls. But look at the actual floor. We are halfway through the conference slate in January 2026, and the "experts" are already sweating. St. John's was picked to win the league by the coaches, but they've got UConn breathing down their necks with a 17-1 overall record. It’s chaotic. It’s loud. It’s exactly what this conference is supposed to be.
The St. John's vs. UConn Heavyweight Bout
Let’s be real: everyone wanted to see if Pitino could actually do it. After winning the Big East Tournament last year, the Red Storm didn't just stand pat. They went out and grabbed arguably the most talented transfer class in the country. Zuby Ejiofor has turned into an absolute monster down low, averaging 15.8 points and leading the league in second-chance opportunities. He’s essentially a vacuum for offensive rebounds.
But there’s a catch.
While the Johnnies are sitting pretty at the top of many big east basketball projections, their offense can be kinda wonky. They take a massive amount of mid-range shots. In a world obsessed with the three-ball, Pitino is zagging. Sometimes it looks brilliant, like when they dropped 90+ in four straight games early on. Other times, it feels like they’re fighting uphill.
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UConn, on the other hand, is just... UConn. Despite losing key pieces to the NBA, they’ve reloaded. Alex Karaban is playing 33 minutes a night and acting as the tactical glue. Then you have the freshman, Braylon Mullins, who is playing like he’s been in the league for five years. The Huskies are currently projected as a 1-seed in almost every bracketology update, including Mike DeCourcy’s latest.
The Messy Middle: Creighton, Providence, and the Bubble
If you want to find the real drama, look at Omaha. Creighton is in a weird spot. They’ve got the talent—Josh Dix and Jackson McAndrew are legit—but they’ve stumbled in games they shouldn't have. They recently went into a stretch where they couldn't afford to drop a single game against the bottom half of the conference just to keep their NCAA bid alive.
Then there’s Providence. Kim English has the Friars playing some of the grittiest defense in the country. Jason Edwards is a bucket-getter, averaging over 17 points a game. They were picked fourth in the preseason, and they've mostly lived up to it, but they lack that "knockout punch" some of the top-tier teams have.
And don't even get me started on Villanova.
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The Kevin Willard era is officially in "rebuild mode." They were picked 7th. They’re playing 7th. They’ve got a bunch of transfers like Devin Askew (at his fifth school!) and some talented freshmen like Acaden Lewis, but the chemistry isn't there yet. They’re a dangerous out at the Pavilion, but they aren't the Villanova of the Jay Wright era. Not yet.
Individual Stars Carrying the Weight
When you dig into the stats, some of the names topping the leaderboards are a bit surprising. It’s not just the blue-bloods.
- Jason Edwards (Providence): 17.2 PPG. He’s the engine that keeps the Friars relevant.
- Michael Ajayi (Butler): This guy is a rebounding machine. 12.1 boards per game. That is insane for a league this physical.
- Silas Demary, Jr. (UConn): 6.1 assists. He’s the reason the Huskies’ offense looks so fluid.
- Budd Clark (Seton Hall): He’s trying to carry the Pirates on his back, averaging 20 points and 5 assists, but the supporting cast just isn't there this year.
Why the Current Projections Might Be Lying to You
The biggest mistake people make with big east basketball projections is ignoring the "Madison Square Garden Factor." Come March 11th, the regular-season standings usually go out the window.
We’re seeing a lot of "Quad 1" and "Quad 2" talk right now. The Big East currently only has about four teams projected to make the Big Dance—UConn, St. John's, Creighton, and maybe Marquette or Providence. That’s low for this league. The NET rankings have been unkind because the bottom of the conference (DePaul, Seton Hall) has struggled more than usual.
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But watch out for Georgetown. Ed Cooley has them at 18 wins already. They have KJ Lewis and Malik Mack in the backcourt, and they are starting to look like the "team nobody wants to play" in the first round of the conference tournament.
What to Watch Moving Forward
If you're betting on how this shakes out, keep an eye on the injury reports. Villanova is waiting on Devin Askew to get fully healthy. Creighton needs Jackson McAndrew to stay on the floor.
The battle for the regular-season title is basically a two-horse race between the Red Storm and the Huskies. St. John's has the home-court vibes in NYC, but UConn has the pedigree. Honestly, it might come down to their head-to-head matchup at the end of the month.
Actionable Insights for Big East Fans
- Stop overvaluing the preseason poll. St. John's was the favorite, but UConn’s efficiency numbers (KenPom) are actually higher.
- Watch the "Last Four In" lists. Creighton and Marquette are living on the edge. Every road game in this league is a potential season-killer.
- Focus on the glass. Teams like St. John's (with Ejiofor) and Butler (with Ajayi) are winning games purely on second-chance points. If you can't rebound in the Big East, you can't win.
- Value the veteran guards. In March, the teams with senior backcourts like Xavier (with Richard Pitino’s new system) or UConn tend to survive the chaos better than the freshman-heavy squads.
The road to the 2026 Final Four definitely runs through the Big East, even if the national media is obsessed with the SEC or Big Ten right now. There is no tougher environment than a Tuesday night in Omaha or a Friday night at the Garden. Strap in, because the second half of this season is going to be a bloodbath.