Drafting for the Cincinnati Bengals is basically like playing a high-stakes poker game where the house occasionally changes the rules halfway through the hand. Fans in the Queen City have seen it all. We’ve lived through the era of "The Lost Decade" and the recent, almost miraculous surge to a Super Bowl appearance. If you look at bengals first round picks over the last thirty years, you’ll see a bizarre mix of Hall of Fame talent and guys who were basically out of the league before their rookie contracts ended.
Honestly, it’s a rollercoaster. You’ve got Joe Burrow on one end—a guy who literally changed the entire culture of a franchise with a single cigarette and a cannon for an arm. Then, you’ve got Akili Smith. Just saying that name in a Paul Brown Stadium (well, Paycor Stadium now) parking lot is enough to make a grown man spill his Skyline chili.
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The Great Quarterback Gamble
When people talk about the Bengals and the first round, they usually start with the quarterbacks. It makes sense. They’ve had some of the highest highs and lowest lows at that position.
In 1999, the team sat at the #3 spot. Mike Brown, the owner who famously wears many hats in the front office, turned down a "Mother Lode" trade offer from the Saints—nine draft picks!—just to stay put and draft Akili Smith. Smith had one good year at Oregon. One. He ended up starting 17 games in four years. He threw five touchdowns. Total. It was a disaster that set the franchise back years.
Fast forward to 2020. The Bengals have the #1 overall pick again. There’s no mystery. No drama. Just Joe Burrow.
The difference? Everything. Burrow was the "Sure Thing" that actually stayed sure. But even then, people forget the Bengals took a massive risk by not drafting an offensive lineman in the first round of 2021 to protect him. They took Ja'Marr Chase instead. The "Penei Sewell vs. Ja'Marr Chase" debate raged on Twitter for months. Honestly, it was exhausting. But it worked. Chase turned into a supernova, and the Bengals' strategy of "outscoring the problems" actually landed them in a Super Bowl.
Recent History: Trench Warfare
The last couple of years have been... interesting. The Bengals have shifted their focus heavily toward the lines.
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Take 2024. They went with Amarius Mims, the massive tackle out of Georgia. At 6’8”, the guy is a literal mountain. But he was also a project. He didn't have a ton of starts in college. It was a classic "bet on traits" move by Duke Tobin and Zac Taylor.
Then came 2025. The Bengals stayed at #17 and grabbed Shemar Stewart, an edge rusher from Texas A&M. If you follow the draft, you know Stewart was a polarizing prospect. He’s built like a Greek god but his college sack numbers weren't exactly mind-blowing. The Bengals are betting that their defensive staff can turn those physical tools into production.
- 2024: Amarius Mims (OT, Georgia) - Pick 18
- 2025: Shemar Stewart (EDGE, Texas A&M) - Pick 17
There’s a pattern here. They aren't just taking the "best player available" anymore. They are targeting high-ceiling athletes at premium positions. They’ve learned that in the AFC North, if you can’t block or rush the passer, you’re basically lunch meat.
The "Bust" Narrative and the Truth
Is it fair to call a pick a bust? Maybe. But context matters.
People love to dunk on John Ross (2017). Yeah, he broke the 40-yard dash record with a 4.22. And yeah, he didn't do much in Cincinnati. But the team was also transitioning, and the fit was just... weird.
Compare that to someone like A.J. Green (2011). He was the fourth overall pick and was basically a Pro Bowler from the second he stepped off the plane. Or Willie Anderson (1996), who should probably be in the Hall of Fame by now. The Bengals actually hit on their first-rounders more often than the national media gives them credit for. It’s just that when they miss, they miss big.
Remember Ki-Jana Carter? 1995. Number one overall. He tore his ACL on his third carry in a preseason game. You can’t scout for that. It was just bad luck. But that one pick defined the franchise’s "cheap" or "unlucky" reputation for a generation.
How the 2026 Draft Changes Everything
Now, looking at 2026, the Bengals are in a weird spot. After a disappointing 6-11 season in 2025, they’ve got the 10th overall pick. This is a "reset" year.
Rumors are flying that they might target a defensive tackle or maybe even another receiver if Tee Higgins isn't in the long-term plans. The cost of a top-10 pick is high—roughly $30 million over four years. For a team that is notoriously careful with its checkbook, that's a huge investment.
Most analysts, like the guys at Stripe Hype, think they’ll go defense again. The pass rush was non-existent last year. Trey Hendrickson can't do it all himself, especially as he gets older. If they don't find a way to get to the quarterback, it doesn't matter how many touchdowns Burrow throws.
Why the 10th Pick Matters
- Salary: It's an $18 million signing bonus right off the bat.
- Expectation: At #10, you aren't a "rotational piece." You have to start Day 1.
- Position Value: Do you take a "safe" interior lineman or a "flashy" edge rusher?
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception about bengals first round picks is that the team is "cheap" in the draft. That’s not really true. They spend the money required by the rookie wage scale. The real issue has historically been the size of their scouting department. For years, they had one of the smallest staffs in the league.
That’s changed. Sorta. They still rely heavily on Duke Tobin’s vision, but they’ve modernized. They use more analytics. They look at "RAS" (Relative Athletic Score) more than they used to.
But they still have their quirks. They love certain "types." They like big, long-armed defenders. They like players from big schools (SEC, Big Ten). They rarely trade up in the first round. They prefer to "stick and pick."
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Actionable Insights for Fans
If you're trying to track how the Bengals handle their top assets, keep an eye on these three things:
- The "Offset Language" Drama: The Bengals are one of the last teams to fight over offset language in rookie contracts. This often leads to late signings and missed training camp time (like we saw with Shemar Stewart). If the 2026 pick isn't signed by July, start worrying.
- The 265-Pound Rule: Historically, the Bengals almost never draft a defensive end under 265 pounds in the first round. They want "heavy" ends who can stop the run. If a "speed rusher" is linked to them, take it with a grain of salt.
- The "LSU Connection": Since Burrow arrived, there's a clear affinity for that Bayou talent. It’s not a coincidence.
The draft is the lifeblood of this team. They don't dive deep into free agency often, so these bengals first round picks have to hit. When they do (Burrow, Chase, Green), they’re a contender. When they don't (Akili Smith, John Ross), it’s a long, cold winter in Cincinnati.
Keep an eye on the 2026 NFL Combine. If the Bengals are meeting with high-end defensive tackles or "heavy" edge rushers, you’ll know exactly which way the wind is blowing. The front office is under more pressure than ever to get this right while Joe Burrow is still in his prime. There is no room for another Akili Smith. Not now. Not ever.
To stay ahead, watch the official team announcements and pay close attention to the post-draft press conferences. Duke Tobin usually lets a few "tells" slip regarding why they valued a specific trait over another.