You’ve probably seen it by now. You walk into the grocery store, head toward the meat counter, and feel that tiny jolt of sticker shock. It’s not just your imagination. Beef prices are hitting record highs in 2026, and if you’re a fan of slow-smoked barbecue, the news about beef brisket prices isn't exactly a walk in the park.
Honestly, the days of finding a whole "packer" brisket for $2.99 a pound feel like a distant dream from a different decade. Right now, if you’re looking to feed a crowd or just fire up the pellet grill for a Sunday project, you’re looking at a serious investment.
What are you actually going to pay?
Let’s get straight to the numbers. If you're hitting up a big-box store like Sam's Club or Costco, you're currently seeing prices hover around $4.98 to $5.98 per pound for a USDA Choice or Prime whole brisket.
Wait.
Before you think that sounds manageable, remember that a whole brisket usually weighs between 12 and 16 pounds. You aren't just spending five bucks; you're dropping $75 to $95 on a single hunk of meat. And that’s if you’re buying the "packer" cut—the big, messy, untrimmed version.
If you prefer the "Flat" (the leaner, rectangular half), the price per pound often doubles. At places like BJ’s Wholesale, a Choice brisket flat is currently retailing for about $8.49 per pound. Suddenly, a 7-pound roast is costing you nearly sixty dollars, and you haven't even bought the charcoal yet.
Why Is Beef Brisket So Expensive Right Now?
It’s easy to blame the grocery store, but the reality is much more complicated. We are currently facing the smallest U.S. cattle herd in over 70 years. Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Association, recently noted that drought, high feed costs, and years of herd sell-offs have created a perfect storm.
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Basically, there just aren't enough cows.
And because biology doesn't care about our cravings, farmers can't just "make" more beef overnight. It takes about 30 months from the time a farmer decides to keep a heifer to when that decision actually results in more beef at the store. We’re in a cycle where supply is tight, and demand—especially for BBQ favorites like brisket—is through the roof.
The Breakdown by Store and Grade
Prices vary wildly depending on where you shop and what grade of meat you’re willing to settle for. Here is a look at the landscape as of early 2026:
Sam’s Club vs. Costco
Historically, Sam's Club has been slightly more aggressive on pricing. You can often find a Member's Mark Choice Whole Brisket for around $4.98/lb, while Costco’s Prime packers usually sit closer to $5.99/lb. It doesn't seem like much of a difference until you're at the register with a 15-pounder.
Walmart
If you’re on a budget, Walmart is often the floor. You might find Select or Choice packers for $3.50 to $4.00/lb, but the quality can be hit-or-miss. These often require much more aggressive trimming, meaning you're paying for fat you'll just throw away.
Local Butchers
This is where things get pricey. A local butcher sourcing from a specific ranch might charge anywhere from $9.00 to $12.00/lb. Why? Because they can't compete with the volume of the giants, and they’re often providing a higher-quality, grain-finished, or grass-fed product.
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Online Specialty (Snake River Farms, etc.)
For the "Wagyu" experience, you're looking at a different stratosphere. American Wagyu brisket can easily clear $12.00 to $15.00 per pound. For a full-sized brisket, you’re looking at a $200 bill.
Prime vs. Choice: Is the Extra Cash Worth It?
This is the eternal debate among pitmasters. USDA Prime has more intramuscular fat (marbling). In a long, 12-hour smoke, that fat renders down and keeps the meat moist. Choice has less marbling but is still very high quality.
Is it worth the extra $1.00 per pound?
Most experts say: yes. If you’re already committing 12 hours of your life and $20 worth of wood or pellets, saving $15 on the meat is often a "penny wise, pound foolish" move. Prime is simply more forgiving.
However, if you're braising the brisket in a slow cooker with plenty of liquid (like for Jewish Tzimmes or a classic pot roast), Choice or even Select is perfectly fine. The liquid does the work that the marbling would have done on a dry smoker.
The "Restaurant Reality"
If you think the grocery store is bad, don’t look at the menu at your local BBQ joint.
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In 2026, famous spots like Franklin Barbecue in Austin are charging upwards of $34 per pound for cooked brisket. Even your local neighborhood smokehouse is likely charging $25 to $30 per pound.
When you cook a brisket, it loses about 40% of its weight to fat rendering and moisture loss. That $80 raw brisket you bought only yields about 8 or 9 pounds of actual food. Restaurants have to cover that "shrinkage," plus labor, wood, and overhead. That’s why a three-slice plate now costs as much as a fancy steak dinner used to.
How to Save Money on Brisket Without Eating Cardboard
You don't have to give up your BBQ habit just because the market is volatile. You just have to be smarter about how you buy.
- Buy the "Packer" and Trim It Yourself: You pay a massive premium for the butcher to remove the "deckle" and square up the flat. Buy the whole, vacuum-sealed bag (Cryovac) and watch a YouTube tutorial on trimming. You'll save $3–$4 per pound.
- The Freezer Is Your Friend: Beef prices are cyclical and seasonal. They usually peak around the Fourth of July. If you see a sale in the "off" months (like late autumn), buy two and throw one in the deep freeze. Brisket stays perfectly fine in a vacuum seal for 6–12 months.
- Ground Brisket: Sometimes, the "Flat" is so expensive that it’s actually cheaper to buy a whole brisket, cook the "Point" for burnt ends, and grind the rest for the best burgers you’ve ever had.
- Check the "Sell By" Dates: Brisket is a tough cut that actually benefits from "wet aging" in the vacuum-sealed bag. If you find a brisket near its sell-by date marked down 30%, grab it. As long as the seal isn't broken and the bag isn't "puffy," it’s likely better than a fresh one.
What to Expect for the Rest of 2026
Industry analysts from Supermarket News and the USDA aren't predicting a price drop anytime soon. Supply constraints are projected to persist throughout the year. We might see some slight "rationing" at the consumer level—meaning fewer people buying briskets and more people shifting toward cheaper cuts like pork butt or chicken.
If you’re planning a graduation party or a summer blowout, budget early. The "ten-dollar-a-pound reality" that some CEOs warned about is already here for many cuts, and while brisket hasn't quite hit that average for raw whole packers yet, it's leaning that way.
To get the most out of your money, focus on technique. A perfectly cooked Choice brisket will always taste better than a ruined Prime one. Take the time to manage your fire, wrap at the right moment (the "stall"), and most importantly, let the meat rest for at least two hours. When you’re paying $90 for a piece of meat, you owe it to your wallet to get the texture right.
Actionable Steps for Your Next Cook
- Check Local Circulars: Use apps like Flipp to track brisket sales across multiple grocery stores simultaneously.
- Verify the Grade: Don't assume the highest price means Prime. Always look for the USDA shield on the packaging.
- Inspect the "Flat": When buying a whole packer, feel the thickness of the flat end. Avoid briskets that taper off into a thin, paper-like edge; that part will just turn into jerky while the rest cooks.
- Calculate the Yield: Expect to serve about 1/2 pound of cooked meat per person. For a 15-lb raw brisket, you'll end up with roughly 8 lbs of meat, enough for 16 people.