Dave Aranda is still in Waco. Honestly, for a lot of folks following the program, that’s the biggest shocker of the new year. After a bumpy 5-7 finish in 2025 and a third losing season in four years, the seat wasn't just hot—it was molten. But Baylor President Linda Livingstone and the administration opted for stability over another expensive buyout. Now, Aranda faces a puzzle that would make most coaches sweat: he has to rebuild almost the entire Baylor Bears football roster from scratch.
We aren't talking about a few holes here and there. This is a gut job. As of January 2026, the Bears are returning only five or six "official" starters from last year's squad. It’s the kind of turnover you usually see when a coach gets fired, not when one gets retained.
The Massive Exodus and Who’s Actually Left
Let’s look at the damage. The depth chart basically looks like a "Wanted" poster for new talent. Baylor lost its starting quarterback (Sawyer Robertson), its top receivers, almost the entire offensive line, and a defensive unit that struggled to stop a nosebleed last year.
Who stayed? Right tackle Kaden Sieracki is a massive pillar to build around, literally. Defensively, the cupboard isn't totally bare, but it's close. Kyland Reed (the "Rover" in Aranda's scheme) and safety Jacob Redding are the veteran voices now. Punter Palmer Williams is also back, which is good because, well, Baylor might be punting a bit while the new offense finds its rhythm.
The most painful loss might actually be on special teams. Connor Hawkins, the kicker who basically won the SMU and Kansas State games by himself, entered the transfer portal just a few days ago. Losing a reliable leg when you’re expecting to play tight, defensive-minded games is a brutal blow.
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The DJ Lagway Factor: A New Hope?
If you’re looking for the reason Aranda got another year, look no further than the quarterback room. DJ Lagway, the former five-star phenom who started his career at Florida, has committed to Baylor.
He’s the wildcard.
If Lagway is as advertised, the Baylor Bears football roster suddenly has a ceiling that goes way beyond 5-7. He brings an athleticism and arm talent that the Bears haven't seen since the RGIII or Bryce Petty eras. But one superstar doesn't make a team. He needs someone to catch the ball and, more importantly, a line that won't let him get sacked five times a game.
Addressing the Transfer Portal Influx
Aranda and his new defensive coordinator, Joe Klanderman (brought over from Kansas State), have been living in the portal. They had to. You can't play Big 12 football with true freshmen at every position. Some of the names joining the 2026 squad include:
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- Dre’lon Miller: A wide receiver transfer from Colorado. He’s played with high-level talent and brings some much-needed speed to the perimeter.
- Daniel Cobbs: A safety from Kansas State who already knows Klanderman’s system. He’s expected to start immediately.
- Hardley Gilmore: A Kentucky transfer who was the Wildcats' second-leading receiver. He’s a big-bodied target for Lagway.
- Asher Hale: An offensive lineman from South Alabama. He’s not a flashy name, but he started at right guard and is exactly the kind of "grown man" Baylor needs in the trenches.
Why the Defense Must Change (Again)
The Aranda era has been a rollercoaster on defense. In 2021, they were a brick wall. Since then? They’ve ranked near the bottom of the Big 12 in scoring defense. Aranda tried calling the plays himself last year, but it didn't stick.
Enter Joe Klanderman.
The philosophy is shifting toward a more "disruptive" 3-3-5 look. They’re moving away from the old "STAR" position and using a more traditional Nickel and Rover setup. The goal is simple: stop giving up 30 points a game. To do that, they’ve brought in guys like Garrick Ponder, an edge rusher from Southern Miss who put up 11.5 tackles for loss last season. They need him to be a menace.
The 2026 Recruiting Class: Local Flavor
While the portal is the quick fix, the high school commits are the long-term play. Aranda has leaned heavily on Texas talent for the 2026 cycle. London Smith, a wideout from right there in Waco (University HS), is the hometown hero type. Then you’ve got Ryelan Morris, a speedy back from Honey Grove, and Quinn Murphy, a quarterback from Liberty Christian who will likely sit and learn behind Lagway.
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It’s a young group. Very young.
The risk here is obvious. If the transfers don't gel and the freshmen aren't ready for the physical toll of the Big 12, it’s going to be a long autumn at McLane Stadium. But if Lagway lights it up and Klanderman fixes the leaks in the secondary, Aranda might just look like a genius for staying the course.
What to Watch During Spring Ball
The Baylor Bears football roster will be under a microscope starting in March. There are three things you should keep an eye on if you're a fan or just a degenerate gambler:
- The Left Side of the Line: With Kaden Sieracki locked in at right tackle, the battle for left tackle and left guard is wide open. If they can't protect the blind side, Lagway’s talent won't matter.
- Wide Receiver Hierarchy: Between Miller, Gilmore, and the returners, who becomes the "alpha"? Someone has to be the go-to guy on third down.
- Kicking Competition: With Hawkins gone, the job likely falls to Rhett Armstrong. Missing field goals in the Big 12 is a fast track to a losing season.
Actionable Insights for Fans:
If you're planning to follow the Bears this season, keep your expectations fluid until after the spring game. The roster is a revolving door right now. Check the official Baylor Athletics portal tracker weekly, as names are still dropping in and out. If you’re looking at win totals, wait to see how the offensive line depth shakes out in August camp before putting any money down. This team will either be a top-25 surprise or a total rebuild project—there is no in-between.