Honestly, if you've ever spent a week in Genesee County during the winter, you know the drill. You check the Batavia New York weather forecast in the morning, see a prediction for light clouds, and by noon you're digging your Subaru out of a three-foot drift. It’s basically the wild west of meteorology.
Right now, as of Friday, January 16, 2026, the situation in Batavia is pretty classic for mid-January. We’re sitting at 21°F, but it actually feels like 13°F because of a steady 5 mph breeze coming off the southwest. It’s cloudy, gray, and looks like the inside of a Tupperware container. If you’re heading out, the daily high is only hitting 32°F, and we’re expecting a low of 13°F tonight.
The Lake Effect Reality Check
People from out of town always ask why the Batavia New York weather forecast is so hard to pin down. The answer is basically Lake Erie. Even though we aren't right on the shore like Buffalo, we get the leftovers. When that cold air screams across the relatively warmer lake water, it picks up moisture and dumps it right on top of us.
📖 Related: Bates Nut Farm Woods Valley Road Valley Center CA: Why Everyone Still Goes After 100 Years
Today, there’s a 38% chance of snow during the day and a 30% chance of snow showers tonight. It’s not a blizzard—not today—but it’s that annoying, persistent dusting that makes Route 5 a mess. Winds are expected to kick up to about 12 mph later, which means blowing snow is going to be the real headache.
What the Rest of January Looks Like
If you’re looking at the long-range outlook, don't get too comfortable. Historical data for January in Batavia shows we usually hover around a high of 31°F and a low of 18°F. This year, we’re slightly below those averages today. Experts at the National Weather Service often point out that January is the windiest month for our region, averaging over 15 mph.
👉 See also: Why T. Pepin’s Hospitality Centre Still Dominates the Tampa Event Scene
- Current Temperature: 21°F
- Today's High: 32°F
- Tonight's Low: 13°F
- Humidity: 71%
- Wind: Southwest at 5 to 12 mph
The "feels like" factor is the big killer here. With humidity at 71%, that damp cold just sinks into your bones. It’s the kind of weather where you need the heavy parka, not the light "commuter" jacket.
Surviving the Genesee County Winter
You've probably noticed that the sun is a rare guest this time of year. We only get about 7 hours of "sunny" or even partly cloudy skies in a typical January day. Most of the time, it's just 72% overcast. It’s a vibe, for sure.
✨ Don't miss: Human DNA Found in Hot Dogs: What Really Happened and Why You Shouldn’t Panic
The Farmers' Almanac and other long-range trackers suggested that the 2025-2026 winter would be "mostly mild with pockets of wild." Today is definitely one of those pockets. We aren't seeing the 5-inch-per-hour rates that hit West Seneca or Hamburg sometimes, but the 38% precip chance is enough to keep the salt trucks busy.
Pro tip for the weekend: If you're planning to travel toward Rochester or Buffalo, keep an eye on the southwest wind. That’s the direction that usually funnels the lake effect bands right into the Batavia corridor.
Next Steps for Staying Prepared:
Check your tire pressure immediately; these 20-degree drops in temperature will cause your "low pressure" light to pop on. If you’re driving late tonight, stick to the main drags like Main Street or Ellicott, as the side roads won't see the plows as frequently with the expected snow showers and 13°F low.