Honestly, if you’re looking at the Bank of Nova Scotia stock price today, you’ve probably noticed something a bit weird. As of January 18, 2026, the stock (trading as BNS on the TSX and NYSE) is hovering around $102.18 CAD (or roughly $73.45 USD). On the surface, that looks pretty solid. But most people just stare at the ticker and wonder why it isn’t moving like a tech stock.
The truth? It's not supposed to.
Banking in Canada is basically a game of "who can be the most reliably boring," and Scotiabank has spent the last year trying to prove they’ve mastered that art. After a rocky period where their international bets felt a bit shaky, they’ve suddenly found their footing. It’s kinda fascinating because while everyone was obsessed with AI and high-growth tech, BNS was quietly cleaning up its balance sheet and hiking dividends.
The Numbers You Actually Care About
Let's get real for a second. You aren't just here for a price quote. You want to know if the money you put in today is going to be worth more in six months.
In fiscal 2025, which wrapped up late last year, Scotiabank posted an adjusted net income of $9.5 billion. That is a massive jump from the year before. They basically told the market, "Hey, we know we had some issues, but we're back." Their earnings per share (EPS) hit $7.09, which beat out a lot of the more pessimistic analyst predictions from early 2025.
Right now, the market is pricing BNS at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 17.5. If you compare that to the historical average for Canadian banks, it’s a little on the high side, but the market seems to be rewarding them for their recent growth in Global Wealth Management and Capital Markets. Their Global Banking and Markets (GBM) segment alone saw earnings grow by 30% in 2025. That’s not "boring bank" growth; that’s aggressive.
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Why the Dividend is Still the King
If you're buying Scotiabank, you're likely doing it for the dividend. You've probably heard that Canadian banks haven't missed a dividend payment since, like, the Victorian era. That’s basically true.
Right now, the yield is sitting around 4.3%.
They just bumped the quarterly payout to $1.10 CAD per share.
If you bought the stock back when it was dragging in the $60s, you're laughing. But even at $102, a 4.3% yield is nothing to sneeze at, especially when you consider it's "safe" money. The payout ratio—the percentage of earnings they use to pay dividends—is roughly 74%. Some analysts at Morningstar think that’s a bit tight, but Scotiabank management has been very vocal about their plan to bring that down by growing earnings faster than the dividend.
What Most People Miss: The Latin America "Problem"
Here is where it gets nuanced. Scotiabank isn't just a Canadian bank. They are the international bank of Canada. They have huge footprints in Mexico, Chile, and Peru.
For years, this was their superpower. Then, it became their anchor.
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In early 2025, currency fluctuations and political unrest in Peru and Chile made investors nervous. You saw the Bank of Nova Scotia stock price dip every time there was a headline about South American inflation. But something changed in the last quarter. CEO Scott Thomson has been pivoting. They’ve been pulling back on less profitable areas—like their recent exit from certain retail operations in Colombia—to focus on "high-velocity" capital.
Basically, they’re tired of being spread too thin. They want to be big in places where they can actually make a high Return on Equity (ROE). They’re aiming for a 14% ROE in 2026. Last year they hit 11.8%, so they still have a mountain to climb, but the trajectory is pointing up.
The 2026 Outlook: Is the Party Over?
Investors are asking if the 32% run-up we saw over the last 12 months can continue.
Probably not at that speed.
Most analysts, including those at WallStreetZen and Public.com, have a "Hold" rating on the stock right now. The consensus price target is floating around $97 USD (or roughly $135 CAD). That suggests there’s still some room to run, but the easy money has been made.
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There are two major risks to watch:
- The Canadian Housing Market: Everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop. With the Bank of Canada keeping rates around 2.25%, the "mortgage cliff" fear has subsided a bit, but the bank still has to set aside billions—roughly $4.7 billion in 2025—for potential loan losses.
- U.S. Trade Relations: Since a huge chunk of Scotiabank's strategy involves the "NAFTA corridor" (Canada-US-Mexico), any trade friction between the U.S. and its neighbors hits BNS harder than it hits, say, TD or RBC.
Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
If you’re holding BNS, honestly, there isn’t a huge reason to panic-sell. The dividend is covered, and the growth in their wealth management division is legitimate.
However, if you're looking to start a new position, you might want to wait for a "breath." The stock has had a massive 2025, and some consolidation is natural. Look for entry points if the price dips back toward the $95 CAD range.
Next Steps for Investors:
- Check the Dividend Date: The next payout is January 28, 2026. If you weren't on the books by the ex-dividend date of January 6, you've missed this round. Mark your calendar for the early April ex-dividend date instead.
- Monitor the PCL Ratio: Keep an eye on the "Provision for Credit Losses." If this number starts spiking above 60 basis points in the next earnings call, it means the Canadian consumer is starting to buckle under debt.
- Watch the Mexican Peso: Because of the bank's heavy exposure to Mexico, the USD/MXN exchange rate actually matters for your share price. A stronger Peso usually means better translated earnings for BNS.
Scotiabank has finally stopped trying to be everything to everyone. By focusing on the North American corridor and shedding the weight of underperforming international branches, they've turned the Bank of Nova Scotia stock price from a laggard into a leader. It's a "show me" story that is finally starting to show.