If you’ve been watching the bank of nova scotia stock price lately, you’ve probably noticed it’s doing a bit of a tightrope walk. As of mid-January 2026, the stock is hovering around $73.45 on the NYSE (or about C$102.18 on the TSX). It’s a weird spot to be in. On one hand, the bank just came off a surprisingly strong 2025 where they actually beat a lot of the gloomy predictions analysts were throwing around. On the other, there’s this lingering "wait and see" vibe because of their heavy exposure to Latin America and the shifting political landscape.
Honestly, Scotiabank is the "different" child of the Big Five Canadian banks. While the others are doubling down on the U.S. or staying comfy in Canada, BNS has its fingers in Mexico, Chile, and Peru. That’s been a headache for years, but 2026 feels like the year we find out if that bet finally pays off or if it’s just more of the same.
Why the bank of nova scotia stock price is suddenly moving
For a long time, Scotiabank was the laggard. You probably remember it being stuck in the mud while RBC and TD were hitting record highs. But something changed in late 2025. CEO Scott Thomson basically told everyone they were done playing defense. They cut about 3,000 jobs, exited a few markets that weren't making money, and started focusing on "client primacy."
Basically, they stopped trying to be everything to everyone and started trying to be profitable.
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The market liked it. In the last 90 days, we’ve seen a return of nearly 14%. That’s massive for a stodgy old bank. When they reported their Q4 2025 earnings in December, they hit an adjusted EPS of $1.93, beating the $1.33 consensus by a mile. Revenue was up 15% year-over-year. That kind of momentum is what's keeping the bank of nova scotia stock price near its 52-week high of $74.97 right now.
The Mexico Factor: A Double-Edged Sword
Let's talk about Mexico because that’s where the real drama is. Scotiabank is leaning into the "Trump doctrine" and the "Monroe Doctrine." They think that as the U.S. focuses more on the Western Hemisphere, Mexico is going to explode with growth.
But it’s not all sunshine. The USMCA trade agreement is up for review on July 1, 2026. That’s a huge "if" hanging over the stock. If those trade talks go south, Scotiabank’s international earnings could take a hit. Right now, they’re projecting double-digit earnings growth for 2026, but that assumes the Mexican economy doesn't go into a tailspin.
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Dividends: The Safety Net
If you’re holding BNS, you’re probably doing it for the dividend. You've gotta love that 4.3% to 4.4% yield. They just hiked it to C$1.10 per share, with the next payment hitting accounts on January 28, 2026.
Is it safe? Yeah, looks like it. Their payout ratio is sitting around 74%—higher than some peers, but totally manageable given their recent earnings beats. They’ve paid a dividend every year for nearly two centuries. They aren't going to stop now.
What the Analysts are Whispering (and Yelling)
There’s a massive split in opinion right now.
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- The Bulls: Some analysts, like those at RBC, have boosted their price targets to $97.00 (CAD), citing the bank's massive ROE improvement—it’s now around 12.5% and they’re aiming for 14%.
- The Bears: Morningstar is a bit more cautious. They raised their fair value estimate to C$92, but they still think the stock is a bit overvalued at current prices. They’re worried about "over-earning" in their capital markets division, which had a monster 2025 that might be hard to repeat.
Morningstar’s logic is that while the bank is doing great right now, trading income and investment banking fees might drop by 8-10% in 2026. If that happens, the bank of nova scotia stock price might struggle to break through that $75 USD resistance level.
Looking Ahead: The 2026 Roadmap
If you’re trying to figure out where the bank of nova scotia stock price goes from here, keep an eye on February 24, 2026. That’s the estimated date for their Q1 earnings.
If they show continued strength in their Canadian Banking and Wealth Management segments—which grew earnings by 18% and 30% respectively last year—the stock could fly. But if we see "provisions for credit losses" (the money they set aside for bad loans) start to spike in Mexico or Chile, expect a pullback.
Practical Steps for Investors
- Watch the USMCA Headlines: Any news about trade friction between the U.S. and Mexico will move this stock faster than an earnings report.
- Reinvest the Dividends: With a 4.3% yield, DRIP-ing (Dividend Reinvestment Plan) those shares is a proven way to compound value while the price stays volatile.
- Monitor the P/E Ratio: BNS is currently trading at a P/E of around 17.5. That’s a bit "rich" compared to its historical average of 11-12. If the earnings growth doesn't materialize, that multiple will contract, and the price will follow.
- Check the February 24th Report: Look specifically at the "International Banking" net income. If it’s flat, the growth story is in trouble. If it’s up, the turnaround is real.
Scotiabank is no longer the "safe and boring" Canadian bank. It’s a growth play disguised as a dividend stock. Whether that’s a good thing depends entirely on your stomach for international volatility.