Honestly, if you’ve lived in Charm City long enough, you know the drill. You wake up to a crisp, clear sky, and by lunch, you're wondering if you should’ve brought an umbrella, a parka, or perhaps a kayak. Right now, Baltimore is sitting in that weird mid-January pocket where the weather can't quite decide if it wants to be a winter wonderland or just a damp, gray mess.
As of Friday, January 16, 2026, we’re shivering through a current temperature of 22°F. But that doesn't tell the whole story. With the wind coming out of the west at 9 mph, the real feel is a biting 11°F. It’s the kind of cold that gets into your bones the second you step off the light rail.
The Immediate Outlook: A Weekend of Transitions
The baltimore md extended weather forecast shows a pretty classic Maryland "mixed bag" over the next 48 hours. Today, we’re looking at a high of 36°F under mostly cloudy skies. There’s a slight 10% chance of snow during the day, but that jumps to 35% tonight. Don’t expect a blizzard, but don't be shocked if you see some white flakes swirling under the streetlights at the Inner Harbor.
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Saturday is where things get messy. We’re heading for a high of 45°F, which sounds nice until you realize it comes with a 35% chance of rain and snow. Basically, it’s going to be that slushy, wet "wintry mix" that makes driving on I-83 a nightmare. The low will hover around 33°F, so anything that falls will likely turn into a localized skating rink by Sunday morning.
Looking Toward Next Week
Once we clear the Saturday slush, things get significantly colder again.
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- Sunday, January 18: Light snow is back in the mix with a high of 34°F and a low of 24°F.
- MLK Day (Monday, January 19): Finally, some sun! It'll be a bright but cold 37°F.
- Tuesday, January 20: This looks like the coldest day of the stretch. We’re talking a high of only 24°F and a brutal overnight low of 15°F.
Why the "Snow Hole" Happens
Have you ever noticed how the TV meteorologists predict six inches of snow for the region, but Baltimore ends up with a quarter-inch of slush? You’re not imagining it.
Meteorologists often talk about the "I-95 corridor" as a literal weather divide. Because of our proximity to the Chesapeake Bay, we often get a "maritime influence." The water stays warmer than the land in early winter, acting like a giant space heater for the city. This often creates a "snow hole" where the suburbs to the north and west (like Towson or Owings Mills) get hammered, while downtown just gets wet.
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The Late January Wildcard
Looking further out toward the end of the month, there is some chatter among the "weather nerds" (and I say that with love) about the period between January 24 and January 26. Some long-range models are hinting at a more significant coastal system. While the current forecast for Sunday, January 25 only shows a high of 43°F with light rain and a 35% chance of snow, these systems are notoriously finicky.
If that low-pressure system tracks just fifty miles further east, we could be looking at the first real shoveling event of the season. If it stays inland, it’s just another rainy Monday.
Actionable Advice for Baltimoreans
- The Saturday Slush Factor: If you have plans in Fells Point or Canton on Saturday night, wear waterproof boots. The transition from 45°F rain to a 33°F low means the puddles will be deceptive.
- Pipe Check: With Tuesday’s low hitting 15°F, it’s a good time to make sure your outdoor hoses are disconnected. If you live in one of the older rowhomes with uninsulated north-facing walls, maybe leave a drip going in the sink.
- Layer Up: The jump from 22°F on Friday to 45°F on Saturday is a 23-degree swing. Don't pack away the heavy wool just because Saturday feels "mild"—the wind chill will return with a vengeance by Sunday night.
The bottom line? Baltimore's weather is a moving target. Keep your salt handy, your ice scraper in the car, and your expectations low.