Football is tribal. If you walk into a pub in Madrid and mention the 2024 results, you’re going to get a very different reaction than if you brought it up in a Manchester coffee shop. It’s wild. For decades, the Ballon d'Or winners were basically undisputed icons of the game—think Bobby Charlton or George Best—but lately, the whole thing has turned into a massive, global argument that never seems to end.
Honestly, the trophy itself is just a bit of gold-plated pyrite on a pyrite base, but the weight it carries in the "Greatest of All Time" conversation is massive. We’ve moved past the era where a player just had to be good; now, they need a narrative, a PR machine, and usually, a Champions League trophy sitting in their cabinet to even stand a chance.
Why the Ballon d Or winners list looks so different lately
For a long time, the list was dominated by two guys. You know the ones. Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo basically turned a prestigious individual award into a personal 15-year game of tennis. Between 2008 and 2023, they combined for 13 trophies. That’s not just dominance; it’s a total eclipse of an entire generation of talent. Guys like Xavi, Andres Iniesta, and Wesley Sneijder probably wake up in a cold sweat thinking about 2010.
But things changed. The 2024 ceremony in Paris felt like a fever dream. Rodri, the Manchester City midfield anchor, took the trophy home, and the football world collectively lost its mind. Real Madrid boycotted the event because Vinícius Júnior didn't win. It was petty. It was dramatic. It was exactly what modern football has become. Rodri winning was a win for the "purists"—the people who actually watch defensive transitions and appreciate a tactical foul—whereas Vini Jr. represents the flair and the highlight reels that dominate social media.
The Messi-Ronaldo "Tax"
There's this thing I call the "Messi-Ronaldo Tax." Basically, for over a decade, if you weren't one of those two, you had to perform at a level that was literally superhuman just to be considered. Look at Robert Lewandowski in 2020. The man was a goal-scoring machine for Bayern Munich. He won everything. Then, COVID-119 happened, France Football cancelled the award, and he was left with nothing but a "sorry about that" shrug from the organizers. Then in 2021, Messi won again, and even Messi himself admitted on stage that Lewandowski deserved one.
It’s kinda funny how the criteria shifts. Some years it’s about "individual brilliance." Other years, the voters decide it’s all about "team trophies." This inconsistency is why fans get so worked up. If it's about trophies, why didn't Jorginho win in 2021 after winning the Champions League and the Euros? If it's about raw stats, why did Erling Haaland lose out in 2023 after breaking every record in the Premier League?
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How the voting actually works (and why it's flawed)
The process is actually pretty straightforward, but the humans involved make it messy. A group of 100 journalists from the top 100 FIFA-ranked nations get a ballot. They pick their top five.
The problem? Bias.
It’s human nature. If you’re a journalist from a country where one specific player is a national hero, you’re probably going to lean that way. Or, if you’re heavily influenced by the massive marketing budgets of the big Spanish clubs, that plays a role too. France Football tries to keep it tight by focusing on three main pillars:
- Individual performance and decisive character.
- Team performance and achievements.
- Class and fair play.
That last one, "class and fair play," is basically the "don't be a jerk" clause. It’s been used to explain why certain players with disciplinary issues or controversial public personas might slip down the rankings even if they’re incredible on the pitch.
The shift to a season-based calendar
One of the best things they did recently was changing the timeline. It used to be based on the calendar year—January to December. That was stupid. Football runs from August to June. It made no sense to judge a player based on the second half of one season and the first half of another. Now, the award aligns with the European season. This change was first implemented for the 2022 award, which Karim Benzema won in a landslide. And honestly? No one argued with that one. Benzema in 2022 was probably the most "undisputed" winner we've seen since Kaká in 2007.
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The "Forgotten" Era and the Midfield Renaissance
We spent so long looking at strikers that we forgot how to value the engine room. Luka Modric breaking the streak in 2018 was a huge deal. People forget how much backlash there was. "He only scored a few goals!" they cried. But if you watched Croatia’s run to the World Cup final, you saw a masterclass in game management.
Rodri’s win in 2024 follows that same logic. He’s the first defensive midfielder to win it since... well, ever, really, depending on how you categorize players like Matthias Sammer (who was more of a sweeper). It signals a shift. The voters are starting to look at the "invisible" work. Rodri went over 70 games unbeaten for club and country. That’s a stat that shouldn't be possible in modern, high-intensity football.
The SNUBBED Club
Every year, there’s a "robbery."
- Thierry Henry (2003): He had 24 goals and 20 assists in the Premier League. He lost to Pavel Nedvěd.
- Wesley Sneijder (2010): He won the treble with Inter Milan and dragged the Netherlands to a World Cup final. He didn't even make the top three.
- Franck Ribéry (2013): He won everything with Bayern. He came third. He’s still vocal about how much that hurt today.
The reality is that the Ballon d'Or is as much about "moments" as it is about consistency. One massive goal in a Champions League semi-final is worth more to a voter than ten goals against a bottom-tier league side in November.
What's next for the golden ball?
We are officially in the "Post-God" era. Messi is in Miami. Ronaldo is in Saudi Arabia. The vacuum they left is being filled by a group of players who are incredible but perhaps lack that singular, mythical aura—at least for now.
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Lamine Yamal is the name on everyone’s lips. The kid is 17 and already ranking in the top 10. Jude Bellingham has the "it" factor. Kylian Mbappé has the talent but seems to be struggling with the weight of expectation at Real Madrid. The next few years of Ballon d Or winners will likely be a revolving door. We might return to the 1990s style where we had a different winner every single year—Ronaldo, Sammer, Zidane, Rivaldo, Figo, Owen.
That’s actually better for the sport. The predictability of the 2010s was impressive, but it was also a bit boring.
Actionable Insights for the Modern Fan
If you want to actually understand who might win the next one, stop looking at the TikTok highlights. Start looking at these three things:
- The "Big Game" Metric: Did the player perform in the Champions League quarter-finals or later? If they disappeared in the big moments, they aren't winning. Period.
- International Tournament Weight: In years with a World Cup or Euros/Copa América, the international trophy usually acts as a tie-breaker. Unless you’re Erling Haaland and your country doesn't qualify, you better show up for your national team.
- Injury Resilience: The best ability is availability. Players who miss three months of the season with a hamstring injury almost never win, regardless of how good they were when they were fit.
The Ballon d'Or is flawed, beautiful, and deeply frustrating. It’s a popularity contest judged by experts, a statistics war fought with emotions. But at the end of the day, it’s the only individual trophy that truly makes a player a legend in the history books. Just don't expect the arguments to stop anytime soon. To get a real sense of the legacy, you have to look at the full timeline of winners and see how the game evolved from the technical rigidity of the 60s to the physical monsters we see on the pitch today.