Looking out the window in Bakersfield right now, you’d think the valley was playing some kind of elaborate prank. It’s Sunday, January 18, 2026, and while the rest of the country is basically shivering through the depths of winter, we’re sitting here with a current temperature of 51°F and a light breeze coming off the west at just 1 mph. Honestly, it’s that weird Central Valley "winter" that feels more like an early spring—unless the fog rolls in, then all bets are off.
If you’re checking the bakersfield ca weather forecast 5 day, you’re probably trying to figure out if you actually need that heavy coat or if a light hoodie will do. The short answer? Layers are your best friend this week.
Today is starting out cloudy with about a 10% chance of rain, but don't cancel your plans. The humidity is sitting at 62%, so it feels a bit damp, but things are expected to clear up. We’re looking at a daytime high of 61°F. Tonight, it drops to 45°F under clear skies. It’s a pretty standard January setup for us, really.
The Week Ahead: Sun, Clouds, and That Stubborn Valley Air
Tomorrow, Monday, January 19, is looking like the pick of the week if you like the sun. We’re bumping up to 63°F for the high, and the rain chance basically vanishes during the day. It’s going to be sunny with a 3 mph northwest wind. If you're heading out for a walk at The Park at River Walk, this is your day. Just remember that once the sun dips, it gets chilly fast; we’re looking at a low of 44°F Monday night.
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Tuesday is where things get a bit moodier. We’re expecting a high of 67°F—the warmest day of the stretch—but it’s going to be under a blanket of clouds.
Expert Note: In Bakersfield, cloud cover in January often means the Tule fog is lurking. While the forecast says "cloudy," locals know that can easily translate to "I can't see my own driveway" by 7:00 AM.
The air quality has been a bit of a struggle lately too. 23ABC’s recent updates have been highlighting poor air quality and haze, which is typical when high pressure just sits over the valley like a heavy lid. It traps everything down here with us.
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Breaking Down the Numbers
Let's talk specifics. Wednesday and Thursday keep that cloudy theme going. Wednesday, January 21, stays mild with a high of 65°F and a low of 45°F. By Thursday, we see a slight dip to 63°F, but the overnight low actually creeps up to 49°F because of the cloud cover acting like a thermal blanket.
There's a consistent 10% "background noise" chance of rain throughout the week. Is it going to pour? Probably not. But in a place that averages only about 6 inches of rain a year, even a 10% chance is enough to make people drive like they've never seen water fall from the sky before.
Honestly, the biggest thing to watch isn't the rain—it's the humidity. It’s hovering between 53% and 60% all week. That’s enough to make the 40-degree nights feel a lot sharper than the number suggests.
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Why the Valley Weather Is So Unpredictable
Most people get wrong that Bakersfield is just "hot or not." In reality, January is a transition month. We’re currently seeing a high-pressure system hanging on, which is why we're hitting the mid-60s while other places are freezing. But as that pressure starts to break down toward the end of the week, we might see some fresher air move in.
Weather experts like those at the National Weather Service in Hanford often point out that our "winter" is defined more by visibility than by snow. We don't get the white stuff, but the Tule fog is arguably more dangerous. If you're commuting on the 99 or the 5 this week, especially Tuesday or Wednesday mornings, give yourself an extra 15 minutes.
Actionable Steps for Your Week
- Check the AQI: Since the air has been "unhealthy for sensitive groups" lately, check the air quality index before you head out for a long run.
- Morning Commute: Watch for visibility drops on Tuesday. If you see the haze thickening, turn on your actual headlights, not just the daytime runners.
- Layer Up: With a 20-degree swing between day and night, you'll want a shell you can ditch by noon.
- Gardening: Soil temperatures are around 54°F. It’s a decent time for some winter pruning, but keep an eye on those overnight lows if you have sensitive citrus.
Basically, enjoy the 60s while they're here. We aren't seeing any major storms yet, but that cooling trend toward the end of the 5-day window suggests the real winter chill might be trying to make a comeback soon.