Baker Mayfield shouldn’t be here. Not like this. If you followed the script written for him in 2022—when he was bouncing from Cleveland to Carolina and then to a literal 48-hour cameo with the Rams—he was supposed to be a high-end backup by now. A bridge guy. Instead, he’s sitting in Tampa Bay with a hundred-million-dollar contract and a stat sheet that makes some Hall of Famers look twice.
He’s different.
The thing about Mayfield is that he’s always been better when the world decides he’s done. It’s a pattern. Walked on at Texas Tech. Walked on at Oklahoma. Won a Heisman. Got drafted first overall. Got kicked to the curb. Now, in 2026, we’re looking at a guy who didn’t just "resurge"—he evolved.
The Tampa Transformation No One Predicted
Most people still think of Baker as the fiery, sometimes erratic kid from the Browns. That guy is mostly gone. In 2024, he put up a season that was frankly ridiculous: 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns. He completed over 71% of his passes. You know how many quarterbacks have done the 4,000/40/70% triple crown? Before Baker, it was just Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Joe Burrow.
That’s the list.
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He found something in Tampa Bay that he never had in Cleveland: stability that actually liked him back. Under the heat of the Florida sun, he stopped trying to win every play with a "hero ball" throw and started dissecting defenses. He led the NFL in third-down conversion rate in 2024 at over 50%. Honestly, that’s the stat that tells the story. It isn't just about the deep shots to Mike Evans—though those are great—it’s about the grit to move the chains when everyone knows you're going to pass.
Breaking the "System QB" Myth
There’s this annoying narrative that Baker is just a product of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Look, having a future Hall of Famer like Evans helps. Obviously. But by late 2025, Mayfield hit a milestone that basically nuked the "it’s just the receivers" argument.
He has thrown touchdown passes to 48 different players in his career.
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That is the most in NFL history for a quarterback age 30 or younger. Think about that for a second. He’s done it with four different teams, multiple offensive coordinators, and a rotating door of tight ends and third-string wideouts. If he were just a "system guy," he would have washed out in Los Angeles or Charlotte. Instead, he’s making guys like Devin Culp and Rachaad White look like All-Pros in the red zone.
Why the Justin Herbert Comparisons Are Often Wrong
You can't talk about Baker without someone bringing up the "pure talent" guys like Justin Herbert. It's the classic NFL debate: the Prototype vs. the Producer.
Herbert is a machine. He's 6'6", he's got a rocket for an arm, and under Jim Harbaugh, he became a "guardian of victory" with a 2024 TD-to-INT ratio that was historically clean (23 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions). People love Herbert because he looks like what a quarterback is supposed to be in a laboratory.
But football isn't played in a lab.
While Herbert has the higher PFF grades and the "unlimited ceiling," Mayfield has the wins when it gets weird. Baker has 28 wins in just about three seasons with the Bucs. He’s won playoff games for two different franchises. In 2025, even when he was banged up and the yardage dipped to 3,693, he still dragged that team to the postseason.
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There's a nuance to Baker's game now. He isn't just a scrambler; he's a manipulator. He’s become elite at using his eyes to move safeties, a skill he honed while watching Tom Brady’s old film in the same facility. He isn't trying to be Herbert. He’s trying to be a winner, and the 2024 and 2025 seasons proved he’s figured out the formula.
The 2025 Milestones You Might Have Missed
- The 70% Club: He joined the elite ranks of high-volume, high-accuracy passers.
- The Giving Bowl: Off the field, he’s become a pillar in Tampa, leading relief efforts after the 2024 hurricanes.
- Walter Payton Nominee: He went from "locker room cancer" rumors in Cleveland to the Bucs' 2025 Man of the Year nominee.
What Really Happened in the 2025 Season
Last year was a bit of a reality check for the "Baker is Elite" crowd, but it also showed his floor. He finished top-10 in yards and touchdowns again, despite a receiving corps that was dealing with age and injuries. He even set a career-high in rushing yards (382).
He’s playing with a "nothing to lose" mentality that is dangerous for opponents. When you’ve been fired by the Browns and the Panthers, a blitz from a linebacker doesn’t seem that scary anymore.
Moving Forward: The 2026 Outlook
So, what do you do with this information if you're a fan or a fantasy manager? You stop waiting for the collapse. The "regression" everyone predicted after his 2023 "Comeback Player of the Year" finalist season never really came. He just got more efficient.
If you’re watching the Bucs in 2026, keep an eye on the pre-snap adjustments. That’s where Mayfield wins now. He’s seeing the game in slow motion. He’s signed through 2026 with a cap hit that reflects his value—over $50 million this year. The Bucs aren't paying for a "bridge." They're paying for a franchise cornerstone.
Actionable Insights for Following Mayfield's Career:
- Watch the Third Downs: Mayfield's value isn't in the 400-yard games; it's in his league-leading ability to convert on 3rd-and-7.
- Ignore the "Personality" Narrative: The "tough guy" persona is now a leadership tool, not a distraction. His 2025 Walter Payton nomination confirms his locker room standing.
- Evaluate the Context: When comparing him to Herbert or Allen, look at the roster turnover. Mayfield's ability to produce with 48 different TD recipients is a rare trait that suggests he can survive any coaching change.
- Check the Mobility: He's running more than ever in his 30s. It's not about speed; it's about the 6.9 yards per carry he averaged in 2025 to keep drives alive.