Football is a funny business. One minute you’re the king of Florida, throwing 41 touchdowns and setting franchise records that make Tom Brady’s tenure look like a warm-up act. The next? You’re staring at an 8-9 record, watching the playoffs from your couch, and wondering why your offensive coordinator just got handed a pink slip.
Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are currently in that weird, uncomfortable "what now?" phase. Honestly, after the 2024 season, we all thought the script was written. Mayfield was the comeback kid. He was the guy who proved Cleveland and Carolina wrong. But 2025 was a brutal reminder that in the NFL, "happily ever after" usually lasts about fifteen minutes.
The collapse was weirdly specific. Tampa started the year 5-1. They looked like world-beaters. Then, Week 7 in Detroit happened, and the wheels didn't just come off—they disintegrated.
The 2024 Masterclass vs. The 2025 Reality Check
To understand why the Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers partnership is at a crossroads, you have to look at the math. In 2024, Baker was basically a glitch in the matrix. He joined Drew Brees, Joe Burrow, and Aaron Rodgers as the only QBs in history to hit 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns while completing over 70% of their passes.
It was elite. It was also, as it turns out, probably unsustainable.
2025 saw those numbers dip across the board.
- Passing Yards: 3,693 (down from 4,500)
- Touchdowns: 26 (down from 41)
- Interceptions: 11
- Rushing Yards: 382 (a career high, surprisingly)
He was still a top-10 quarterback by most volume metrics. He still had that "offensive lineman in a QB's body" energy, stiff-arming defenders and screaming at his own sidelines to wake up. But the efficiency vanished. The Bucs went from the fourth-highest-scoring offense in the league to a unit that struggled to find the end zone against the Saints and Falcons when the season was on the line.
That $100 Million Security Blanket
Money talks, but in Tampa, it's currently shouting. Last summer, the Bucs did something that raised a lot of eyebrows: they reworked Baker’s contract to fully guarantee his 2026 salary.
Basically, they gave him $30 million in "we trust you" money.
This brings his total guarantees up to roughly $80 million. It’s a massive commitment for a guy who just led a team to a losing record, but it shows that the front office isn't blaming Baker for the 2025 slide. They’re blaming the system. Or specifically, they're blaming Josh Grizzard, the offensive coordinator who lasted exactly one season before being fired on January 8, 2026.
Mayfield is now staring down his ninth play-caller since entering the league. Nine. That’s a lot of different terminologies to learn for a guy who just wants some stability.
Why the Todd Monken Rumors Matter
Right now, the big talk in Tampa is a potential reunion with Todd Monken. He’s the guy who worked with Baker in Cleveland and most recently spent time with Lamar Jackson in Baltimore.
If the Bucs pull this off, it’s a clear signal. They want to return to the aggressive, vertical passing game that made 2024 so fun. Grizzard’s offense felt a bit safe. It relied heavily on yards after the catch (YAC) and short-area accuracy. While Baker is good at that, he’s better when he’s allowed to be a bit of a gunslinger.
What People Get Wrong About Baker's Leadership
There’s this narrative that Baker is "difficult" or "too loud." If you talk to the guys in the Tampa locker room, it’s the exact opposite.
Even during the three-game losing streak late in 2025, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were vocal about having his back. Mayfield’s a "guy's guy." He’s the first one to take the blame in a press conference—which he did repeatedly after the Week 15 loss to Atlanta—and the last one to leave the facility.
He’s also about to be a "boy dad," which he shared in a private gender reveal recently. He’s maturing. He’s 30 now. The chip on his shoulder is still there, sure, but it’s less about "proving the haters wrong" and more about not wasting the back half of his career.
The 2026 Outlook: Sink or Swim
The Buccaneers have a roster that is too good to be picking in the top 10. They’ve got Jalen McMillan emerging as a legitimate threat, Tristan Wirfs anchoring the line, and a defense that—while leaky at times—still has teeth.
But Todd Bowles is on a seat that is essentially a frying pan at this point. If the 2026 season starts with another mid-season collapse, the "Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers" era might end with a total regime change.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you're a Bucs fan or just tracking Baker's career, here is what actually needs to happen for this to work:
- Hire a "Baker-Centric" OC: Whether it's Monken or a dark horse candidate, the system has to match Baker's quick processing and deep-ball placement. No more conservative play-calling on 3rd and short.
- Fix the Air Yards: In 2024, Tampa was 29th in average air yards per attempt. They played small ball. To compete with the heavy hitters in the NFC, they have to start taking the top off the defense again.
- Rachaad White and Bucky Irving Balance: The run game improved drastically in 2024 but got predictable in 2025. Keeping Baker clean means keeping the defense honest with that two-headed monster in the backfield.
Baker isn't a bridge quarterback anymore. He’s the franchise. The contract says so, the locker room says so, and his 2024 tape says so. Now, he just has to go out and prove that 2025 was the fluke, not the other way around.
The next few months of coaching hires will tell us everything we need to know about whether the Bucs are actually "all in" or just stuck in expensive limbo. Stay tuned to the coordinator search—it’s the only thing that matters right now.