Honestly, if you've been watching the Avenue Supermarts Ltd stock price lately, you might feel like you're trying to read a map in the middle of a monsoon. One day the headlines scream about "record profits," and the next, the stock is taking a 1.4% dip because of something as abstract as "staples deflation."
It's confusing.
As of January 16, 2026, the stock closed at ₹3,775.70 on the NSE. To put that in perspective, we are quite a distance away from the 52-week high of ₹4,949.50. It feels like the market is having a massive argument with itself. On one side, you have the "DMart is the king of retail" crowd, and on the other, folks are worried that Quick Commerce (QC) apps are eating Radhakishan Damani's lunch.
The Q3 Reality Check
The recent Q3 FY26 results, dropped on January 10, were actually pretty decent—if you look at the raw numbers. Consolidated net profit jumped 18.3% to ₹856 crore. Revenue climbed to ₹18,100.88 crore.
But here’s the kicker.
The market didn't throw a party. Why? Because while the profits looked shiny, the Avenue Supermarts Ltd stock price has been haunted by "Like-for-Like" (LFL) growth. LFL basically tells us how much more money the old stores are making compared to last year. In Q3, that number was 5.6%. Last year? It was over 8%.
That’s a slowdown. You can't hide it.
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Anshul Asawa, the CEO-designate who is taking over from the legendary Neville Noronha on February 1, 2026, mentioned that staples deflation played a role. Basically, when prices for basic groceries like oil or pulses go down, DMart's total revenue growth looks smaller even if they're selling the same amount of stuff.
The Changing of the Guard
Speaking of management, we’re seeing a massive shift at the top. This isn't just a tiny tweak. Neville Noronha is stepping down after decades of building this empire.
- Anshul Asawa (ex-Unilever) becomes CEO on Feb 1, 2026.
- Sachin Jaolekar takes over as VP of FMCG.
- Dastgir Shaikh moves in as VP of General Merchandising.
When a company as disciplined as Avenue Supermarts changes its entire leadership structure, investors get twitchy. It’s natural. People wonder if the "Damani Way"—that laser focus on low costs and owning your own real estate—will stay the same under the new guard.
Quick Commerce: The Elephant in the Room
You've probably used Zepto, Blinkit, or Swiggy Instamart. They're fast. Scary fast.
For a long time, the thesis was that DMart was safe because people go there for "monthly missions"—big shopping trips for heavy bags of rice and flour. But the lines are blurring. When a QC app can deliver a 5kg bag of sugar in 10 minutes, the "DMart trip" starts to look like a lot of work.
Brokerages like Nuvama and JM Financial have been cautious. They've pointed out that DMart’s revenue per square foot has been mostly flat. That's a sign that the stores aren't getting "denser" with shoppers. In fact, JM Financial recently cut their target price for the stock to ₹3,950.
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On the flip side, Motilal Oswal is still banging the drum for a ₹4,600 target. They believe the "Everyday Low Price" (EDLP) model is an indestructible fortress.
Is the Avenue Supermarts Ltd Stock Price a Bargain?
Looking at the technicals, the stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of roughly 80x-85x. For a normal company, that’s insane. For DMart, that’s actually "sorta cheap" historically.
- 52-Week Low: ₹3,340
- Current Price: ₹3,775
- The "Bull" Target: ₹6,410 (Some high-end estimates)
- The "Bear" Target: ₹3,131
If you're a fan of Radhakishan Damani’s strategy, you see 442 stores and a plan to hit nearly 2,000 eventually. They added 10 stores this past quarter. They aren't rushing. They never do. They buy the land, they build the store, and they wait.
But the "wait" is getting harder for retail investors who see stocks like Trent (Zudio/Westside) or even some of the tech-heavy retail plays zooming past.
What You Should Actually Do
If you're holding DMart or thinking about jumping in, you've got to ignore the daily noise. The Avenue Supermarts Ltd stock price isn't going to double overnight. It’s not that kind of stock anymore.
First, watch the management transition in February. If Asawa starts talking about "aggressive discounting" or "heavy digital spends," it means the old DMart DNA is changing. That might be good for growth, but bad for the margins we've come to love.
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Second, keep an eye on the "General Merchandise" segment. Right now, it's about 23% of their revenue. This is where the big profits are—the plastic buckets, the shirts, the home appliances. If this number goes up, the stock usually follows.
Third, look at the store count in North India. DMart has always been a West/South powerhouse. Their success in the North will decide if they can truly scale to 1,500+ stores.
Basically, the stock is in a "prove it" phase. It has to prove that it can grow in a world where everyone wants everything delivered in 10 minutes.
It’s a long game. Always has been.
Actionable Insights for Investors
- Check the Pivot Levels: For short-term traders, the stock has immediate support near ₹3,716. If it breaks that, we might see the ₹3,600 levels again.
- Monitor Staples Prices: Since deflation is hurting the top line, any spike in food inflation (ironically) might actually make the revenue numbers look "better" in the next quarter.
- Watch the Delivery Play: DMart Ready (their e-commerce arm) is still a small part of the pie. Any news about them opening more "fulfillment centers" in big metros like Mumbai or Delhi is a signal they are finally taking the digital fight seriously.
- Evaluate Your Horizon: If you aren't willing to hold for 3-5 years, this volatility might be too much. The stock is currently in a "falling trend" on the short-term charts.
The best way to play this? Don't catch a falling knife. Wait for the stock to stabilize above its 200-day moving average before going "all in." In the meantime, watching how the new CEO handles the Q4 earnings in April will be the ultimate tell.