You've probably heard that if you don't like the weather in Texas, you should just wait five minutes. In Austin, that's not just a cliché—it's a survival strategy. Looking at the Austin TX 30 day forecast right now, we’re staring down a classic Central Texas seesaw.
One day you're wearing shorts at Zilker Park, and thirty-six hours later, you’re wrapping your outdoor pipes because a "Blue Norther" decided to scream down I-35.
Honestly, the next month is going to be a bit of a ride.
We are currently transitioning out of a weak La Niña pattern. This typically means our winters are drier and warmer than the historical average, but that doesn't mean we are safe from the occasional arctic blast. If you look at the data from the National Weather Service, we’re entering that specific window in late January and early February where the "big freezes" usually happen. Think back to 2021 or even the ice storm of 2023. Those weren't anomalies; they were part of the February tradition here.
The Immediate Outlook: Fires and Freezes
Right now, the most pressing thing on the radar isn't rain—it's the lack of it. We are under a Red Flag Warning this weekend. It sounds dramatic because it is. When the humidity drops into the teens and the wind gusts hit 30 mph, the cured winter grasses around Travis County become literal tinder.
But wait, there's more.
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Tonight, we’re looking at a legitimate hard freeze. Temperatures are expected to tumble into the mid-20s. If you live out in the Hill Country or near Bergstrom (KAUS), you might even see the upper teens. It’s a dry cold, which is better than the "bone-chilling" dampness we get sometimes, but it’s still enough to kill your lantana if you don't cover it.
The good news? This cold snap is a "blink and you'll miss it" event. By Sunday afternoon, we’re back in the 50s. By Monday? 60s. It’s enough to give anyone a sinus headache.
Why the Austin TX 30 Day Forecast is Hard to Predict
Predicting weather in Central Texas for a full month is basically like trying to guess which food truck will have the shortest line on a Saturday—you can make an educated guess, but a lot can change.
Austin sits right on the edge of several different climate zones. We get the dry air from the West Texas deserts, the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and the cold fronts from the Great Plains. When those three meet over Lady Bird Lake, things get interesting.
Rainfall and the "Drought Guard"
Usually, January is our driest month. We average about 1.7 inches of rain for the whole month. However, the long-range models are showing a slight shift.
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- Mid-to-Late January: We have a disturbance moving in from Mexico around Tuesday. This could bring the first "wetting rain" we’ve seen in weeks. Most of it will likely stay east of I-35, but we’re crossing our fingers for some accumulation.
- Early February: Historically, this is when the "clash of the air masses" happens. We see an increase in cloud cover—about 44% of the time, the sky will be overcast.
- Late February: We start seeing a 19% chance of wet days. The moisture finally starts returning as the Gulf of Mexico wakes up.
Misconceptions About Austin Winters
Most newcomers think Austin doesn't have a winter. Tell that to anyone who lived through the 2021 blackout. While our "average" high is 62°F in January, the range is wild. We've had days in February hit 99°F (back in 1996), and we've had nights hit -2°F.
The 30-day outlook suggests we will stay mostly above those extremes this year, but the "volatility" is the real story.
You should also know about the "Bergstrom vs. Camp Mabry" difference. Camp Mabry is in the middle of the city, surrounded by asphalt. It stays warmer. Austin-Bergstrom is in a low-lying valley to the southeast. It can be 10 degrees colder at the airport than it is downtown. If the forecast says 32°F, and you live in Del Valle, you’re looking at 22°F. Plan accordingly.
What to Expect Each Week
Week 1 (Current - Jan 23): The theme is "The Big Swing." After the hard freeze this weekend, we’ll see a steady climb. Mid-week brings that rain chance. It won't be a washout, but keep the umbrella in the car just in case. Highs will settle in the mid-60s.
Week 2 (Jan 24 - Jan 31): Models are leaning toward a "Zonal Flow." This is fancy meteorologist talk for "boring." Expect consistent temperatures, lots of sun, and very little drama. It’s prime hiking weather. Highs around 65°F, lows in the 40s.
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Week 3 (Feb 1 - Feb 7): This is the danger zone. Historically, the first week of February is when the jet stream likes to dip low and bring down the arctic air. While no "Ice-pocalypse" is currently showing on the long-range GFS or ECMWF models, this is the window where you should keep an eye on the local news.
Week 4 (Feb 8 - Feb 15): The transition begins. We’ll likely see more humidity. The mornings will be foggy and "gray," that classic Austin winter gloom that doesn't burn off until 2 PM.
Actionable Steps for the Next 30 Days
Don't let the "sunny" icons on your weather app fool you into being unprepared.
- Check your tire pressure now. Those 30-degree temperature drops cause the air in your tires to contract, and your "low pressure" light will inevitably come on the second you’re running late for work.
- Hydrate your trees. We are in a drought. Even though it's cold, trees need water to survive the freezes. Give them a deep soak on the days it's above 50 degrees.
- Prepare for Cedar Fever. It’s peaking. Even if you think you don't have allergies, the Ashe Juniper pollen counts are astronomical right now. Keep your windows closed during those windy "Red Flag" days.
- Service your HVAC. We’re about to switch from "Heat" to "AC" and back again three times in a single week. Make sure your capacitors are ready for the workout.
Basically, the Austin TX 30 day forecast is telling us to stay flexible. We’re likely looking at a warmer-than-average month overall, but with at least two sharp cold fronts that will remind you exactly why we keep the heavy coats in the back of the closet.
Keep your plants covered during the overnight freezes this weekend, and keep an eye on that Tuesday rain—it might be the only moisture we get for a while.