Honestly, if you've lived in Central Texas for more than five minutes, you know the drill. You wake up needing a parka and by lunch you're considering turning on the AC. It’s weird. It’s Austin. Right now, looking at the Austin Texas 15 day forecast, we are staring down a classic January roller coaster that’s going to make getting dressed a daily gamble.
We are currently sitting in a bit of a dry spell. According to recent U.S. Drought Monitor data from early January 2026, most of the I-35 corridor is stuck in "moderate" to "severe" drought. That’s why these upcoming rain chances feel like such a big deal, even if they're just light showers.
The Immediate Outlook: Sun, Then Shivers
Today, Saturday, January 17, is basically a "chamber of commerce" day. It’s sunny with a high of 55°F. But don't let the sun fool you into thinking it's warm. The wind is coming out of the north at 16 mph, making that 55 feel more like 43.
If you're heading out to Zilker or walking the trail at Lady Bird Lake tomorrow, Sunday is actually looking better. We're jumping up to 62°F. The wind flips to the southwest, which usually brings in that slightly warmer, "sticky" air we’re used to.
Here is the quick breakdown of the next few days:
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- Monday, Jan 19: High of 64°F, low of 37°F. Mostly cloudy.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: A bit of a dip. High only hits 55°F.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: This is our first real "wet" day. We've got a 35% chance of rain with a high of 63°F.
The humidity is going to spike to around 85% on Wednesday. It’s that damp, heavy Austin cold that feels like it gets into your bones. It’s not a downpour, just enough to make the roads slick and the sky look like a wet wool blanket.
Why the Back Half of January Gets Tricky
As we move into the second week of this forecast, things get even more "Austin." We see a spike toward 69°F by Friday, January 23, before another front tries to push through.
Historically, January is our coldest month. While places like the Northeast deal with feet of snow, we deal with "ice anxiety." We aren't seeing a repeat of the 2021 "Uri" disaster in this specific window, but the lows are consistently hovering near freezing—specifically around 32°F to 33°F on Jan 25 and 26.
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Rain is the Wildcard
The drought is the elephant in the room. Jordan Darensbourg at KVUE recently noted that the Hill Country isn't getting the moisture it needs. The Austin Texas 15 day forecast shows a few "rain events" on Jan 25, 26, and 28. These aren't tropical deluges. We’re looking at precipitation totals ranging from 0.35 to 0.78 inches.
It’s enough to help the cedar trees (and our allergies), but not enough to "bust" the drought.
How to Actually Prepare
Forget what the thermometer says; watch the wind direction. When it’s from the North, add a layer. When it’s from the South, you can probably leave the heavy coat in the car.
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By the end of the month, specifically Jan 28 and 29, temperatures are forecasted to drop back into the 40s and 50s for highs. Nighttime lows will sit right at 37°F. It's basically "soup weather" for a solid three-day stretch.
- Check your pipes: We aren't seeing a hard, multi-day freeze, but those 32°F nights mean you should at least cover the outdoor faucets.
- Hydrate your plants: Counterintuitively, plants need water before a cold snap to help them survive the dry, biting winds.
- Cedar Fever is real: With rain chances increasing and then clearing out, the pollen counts are going to explode. Keep the Flonase handy.
The big takeaway? Expect the "Yo-Yo effect." One day is 69°F, the next is 44°F. That’s just January in Travis County. Stay weather-aware, especially around the 26th when the rain and the cold temps try to sync up.
Keep an eye on the dew point. When it drops into the 30s like it's supposed to this weekend, the air is incredibly dry. That makes the "feels like" temp significantly lower than the actual reading. Trust the "feels like" more than the high/low numbers on your phone.