The air in Belo Horizonte usually smells like coffee and pão de queijo, but on derby day, it smells like adrenaline and gunpowder. If you haven't stood in the middle of a crowd when Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro kicks off, it is hard to explain. It's not just a game. It's a city divided by a lake, a history of class struggle, and a century-old grudge that refuses to cool down. Honestly, the tension is so thick you could cut it with a knife.
Most people look at the scoreboard and think they’ve seen the whole story. They haven't.
The 2025 Earthquake and the Road to 2026
We have to talk about what happened recently because it shifted the ground beneath everyone’s feet. In the 2025 Copa do Brasil quarterfinals, Cruzeiro didn't just win; they humiliated their rivals. A 4-0 aggregate scoreline. Just think about that for a second. In a rivalry where a 1-0 win is celebrated for months, a four-goal thumping feels like a permanent scar. Kaio Jorge became a household name—or a curse word, depending on which jersey you own—after netting twice in the second leg at the Mineirão.
The most recent official clash on October 15, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw at the Arena MRV. Ruan Tressoldi scored for Galo, and Matheus Pereira leveled it for Raposa. It was a messy, yellow-card-heavy affair that saw Kaio Jorge go from hero to villain with a red card in the 53rd minute.
That brings us to right now. January 2026.
The next big chapter is set for January 25, 2026, in the Campeonato Mineiro. It’s Round 5. The venue is the Arena MRV. Currently, Cruzeiro is sitting at the top of the table, while Atlético is chasing from third. If you're betting on this, keep in mind that Galo hasn't kept a clean sheet in six matches. On the other side, Cruzeiro’s Rayan Lelis is hitting the target more than anyone else in the league.
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Why This Rivalry is Different
You’ve got the Big Three in São Paulo and the chaos of Rio, but the Clássico Mineiro is intimate. It’s local.
Atlético Mineiro (Galo) was founded in 1908 by students. It was the "people's club" early on. Then you have Cruzeiro, born in 1921 as Palestra Itália. They were the club of the Italian colony, the working-class immigrants. During World War II, things got political. Brazil joined the Allies, and suddenly, anything "Italian" was seen as an enemy. Palestra had to change its name. It became Cruzeiro.
That shift from ethnic identity to a national powerhouse changed everything.
By the Numbers: Who Actually Rules?
Numbers in this derby are... complicated. Depending on who you ask, the stats change. Atlético fans will point to their 9-2 victory back in 1927. It's the biggest win in the history of the fixture. Cruzeiro fans? They’ll remind you of the 6-1 thrashing in 2011 that saved them from relegation and sent Galo fans into a spiral of despair.
Let's look at the "official-ish" tallies as of early 2026:
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- Total Matches: Over 500 (the exact number varies by about 20 depending on which club's historian you trust).
- Victories: Atlético generally leads with around 200+ wins compared to Cruzeiro’s 170+.
- Goals: We are looking at over 700 goals for Galo and roughly 650 for the Raposa.
The "Mineirão Era" (post-1965) was when Cruzeiro really found their teeth. With legends like Tostão and Dirceu Lopes, they dominated the late 60s. Atlético responded in the 70s and 80s with Reinaldo, the man who scored 26 goals against Cruzeiro. That record still stands. Nobody has touched it.
Tactics and the "Hulk" Factor
In the modern era, Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro is a clash of styles. Atlético has been the big spender lately. They have Hulk. Even at his age, the man is a physical anomaly. He’s the lighthouse for their offense. But in the last few derbies, he’s been frustrated. In that 2-0 loss in the Copa do Brasil, he hit the woodwork and spent most of the night arguing with the referee.
Cruzeiro, under their SAF (Sociedade Anônima do Futebol) management, has become leaner and more tactical. They don't try to outspend Galo anymore. They try to outthink them. They use a high-press system that targets Atlético's aging backline. It worked perfectly in 2025.
What to Watch for in the Next Match
If you’re heading to the Arena MRV or watching on TV, keep your eyes on the midfield transition.
- The Discipline Problem: These games almost always feature a red card. The October 2025 match had one, and the tensions from the Copa do Brasil elimination are still very fresh.
- The "New" Mineirão vs Arena MRV: Cruzeiro fans still treat the Mineirão like their cathedral, but Atlético’s move to their own stadium (Arena MRV) has changed the dynamic. It’s tighter. The noise is trapped. It’s a literal pressure cooker.
- Key Players: Watch Matheus Pereira. He is the brain of the Cruzeiro operation. For Atlético, Gustavo Scarpa needs to find his 2022 form again if they want to break down the Raposa's defense, which has been surprisingly solid this season.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
Stop looking at the league table. It doesn't matter. In a derby, the team in 10th place can easily destroy the team in 1st.
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If you are following the betting lines for the January 25th match, look at the "Under 2.5 goals" market. Even though these teams can score, the fear of losing usually leads to a very cagey first 60 minutes. Also, check the weather. Summer rain in Belo Horizonte is no joke; a heavy pitch always favors the more physical Atlético squad over the technical Cruzeiro side.
Keep an eye on the injury reports for Marquinhos and Matheus Cunha on the Cruzeiro side. Their absence in recent training sessions suggests a tactical shift might be coming. For Galo, the fitness of Guilherme Arana is everything. When he’s flying up the left wing, Atlético is a different beast. When he’s pinned back, they look stagnant.
The rivalry is alive. It’s bitter. And on January 25th, the city stops again.
Next Steps for the 2026 Season:
- Monitor the state league standings: The January derby often determines who gets the home-field advantage for the Campeonato Mineiro finals in April.
- Check the SAF financial reports: Cruzeiro's ability to sign reinforcements in the July window depends heavily on their performance in these early-year high-profile games.
- Watch the disciplinary board: Any suspensions handed out in the state league often carry over to the start of the Brasileirão, which could handicap either team's start to the national championship.