Honestly, if you only looked at the scoreline from the last time Aston Villa vs Nottm Forest cropped up on the calendar, you’d think it was just another routine day at the office for Unai Emery. A 3-1 win at Villa Park on January 3, 2026. Seems straightforward, right? But football is rarely that kind to the people playing it, and it certainly wasn't that simple for Forest's keeper, John Victor, whose afternoon ended in a way that’ll probably haunt his highlight reel for a decade.
Villa Park was freezing. The kind of cold that gets into your bones before the first whistle even blows. Everyone expected Villa to come out swinging after that 4-1 thumping they took from Arsenal just days before. They did. But for 45 minutes, it felt like Nottingham Forest—now under Sean Dyche—had brought a brick wall and parked it right on the edge of the penalty area.
The Chaos Behind the Scoreline
People keep talking about Villa's dominance, and yeah, 73% possession is a lot. It's basically keeping the ball for yourself and refusing to share. But it took a moment of pure, unadulterated individual brilliance from Ollie Watkins to break the deadlock. It was his 250th appearance. Imagine that. You've played 250 games for a club and you mark it by turning on a sixpence and smashing a 20-yard rocket into the top corner in first-half stoppage time.
That goal changed everything. It broke Forest's spirit just enough for John McGinn to sneak in a second right after the break.
But then things got weird.
Forest isn't a team that just rolls over anymore. Morgan Gibbs-White—who is basically the heartbeat of that squad—pulled one back with a dink over Emi Martínez that was honestly filthy. Suddenly, it’s 2-1. The crowd gets twitchy. You can feel the tension. Then came the "moment." John Victor, the Forest keeper, had a complete brain fade. He rushed out 30 yards from his goal to deal with a ball he had no business chasing. McGinn just rounded him and rolled it into an empty net.
📖 Related: Serie del Caribe 2025 Standings: What Really Happened in Mexicali
To make it worse? Victor got injured in the process. He left the pitch in tears. It’s the sort of thing that makes you feel for a player, even if you’re a die-hard Villa fan.
Why the Tactical Shift Matters
Sean Dyche bringing his brand of "maximum efficiency" to Forest has changed the dynamic of this fixture. It’s no longer the wide-open, 5-5 draws we saw back in the Championship days of 2018. Remember that game? Tammy Abraham scoring four and the game still ending level? That was madness.
Now, Aston Villa vs Nottm Forest is a chess match. Emery wants control; Dyche wants a scrap.
- Villa’s High Line: They play so high up the pitch it’s practically suicidal if the opposition has pace.
- Forest’s Low Block: Dyche has them sitting deep, waiting for the one mistake that lets Elanga or Gibbs-White loose.
- The Midfield Engine: John McGinn isn't just a captain; he's a nuisance. He’s the guy who wins the balls nobody else wants to touch.
Villa is chasing the Champions League spots, currently sitting third in the table behind Arsenal and City. Forest? They’re 17th. They are fighting for their lives, four points clear of the drop. That desperation makes them dangerous. You saw it in December 2024 when they snatched a 2-1 win at the City Ground with a 90th-minute winner from Anthony Elanga. They know how to hurt Villa.
What History Actually Tells Us
Most people think Villa has always had the upper hand, but the head-to-head is closer than the "Big Club" narrative suggests. Out of 133 meetings, Villa has 61 wins and Forest has 40. But look at the last few years. Before this 3-1 win, Forest had actually been a bit of a bogey team for Emery.
There was that 2-0 Forest win in late 2023 where Villa looked completely toothless. Then the 2-1 at the City Ground in late '24. If you’re betting on this game based on prestige alone, you’re doing it wrong. Forest thrives on being the underdog in this specific rivalry.
✨ Don't miss: Emma Navarro Age: What Most People Get Wrong About the Rising Tennis Star
The introduction of guys like Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo at the back has given Forest a physical presence they lacked for years. They aren't just getting bullied anymore. Even in the 3-1 loss, they had 10 shots. They weren't just spectator-adjacent; they were in the fight until that goalkeeping howler killed the game.
The Douglas Luiz Factor
Seeing Douglas Luiz come off the bench for Forest at Villa Park was... surreal. The Villa faithful gave him a warm welcome, but you could tell it felt off. He was such a massive part of Villa's rise under Emery. Now, he's part of a Forest midfield trying to claw its way out of a relegation scrap.
Football moves fast. One season you’re a hero in claret and blue, the next you’re wearing the Garibaldi red and trying to spoil the party.
What to Watch Next Time
If you’re looking ahead to the return fixture at the City Ground in April, keep an eye on the injury report. Forest is hurting. Chris Wood is out for months. Taiwo Awoniyi is trying to find fitness. Without a focal point up top, they're relying heavily on Gibbs-White to do everything.
Villa, on the other hand, looks like a machine that only breaks when they play the absolute elite. They've won 11 home games in a row. That’s a club record. But away from home? They can be got at.
Actionable Insights for the Return Leg:
- Watch the First 15: Villa tends to score in bursts. If Forest can survive the first quarter of an hour without conceding, the frustration starts to build in the Villa ranks.
- Target the Right-Back: Emery is still looking for a permanent solution there. If Forest can get Elanga isolated against whoever is filling that gap, they’ll create chances.
- The "Victor" Psychological Effect: If John Victor is back in goal, watch how high he plays. That mistake in January wasn't just a physical error; it was a tactical one.
- Set Pieces: Dyche teams live and die by the dead ball. Villa has looked shaky defending corners recently, and that’s exactly where Milenkovic is most dangerous.
The rivalry between Aston Villa vs Nottm Forest is one of those classic Midlands battles that doesn't get the global hype of a North London Derby, but the tension is just as thick. It’s about history, European Cups, and two fanbases that genuinely believe they belong at the top table.
Keep an eye on the January transfer window. Emery wants another attacker. Dyche needs a striker. Whoever wins that arms race will likely dictate how the April meeting goes.
For now, Villa has the bragging rights, but in the Premier League, that usually lasts about five minutes before the next crisis hits.