Honestly, if you’d told a casual investor a year ago that the stock price of asml would be knocking on the door of $1,400 by early 2026, they might’ve called you a dreamer. But here we are. Just a few days ago, on January 16, 2026, ASML Holding N.V. hit an all-time closing high of $1,358.57. It didn't just crawl there; it sprinted, briefly touching a day high of $1,375.37.
The Dutch giant finally crossed that psychological $500 billion market cap threshold. It's a massive deal.
Why is this happening now? Basically, it’s the "TSMC effect." When the world’s biggest foundry, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, announces they’re jacking up their 2026 capital expenditure to somewhere between $52 billion and $56 billion, everyone knows where a huge chunk of that cash is going. It’s going to Veldhoven. It's going to the only company on the planet that can build the machines needed to make AI-capable chips.
✨ Don't miss: Where's My CT Refund: Why Your Connecticut Tax Money Is Actually Taking So Long
Why the Stock Price of ASML is Defying Gravity Right Now
For a while, people were worried. Back in late 2024 and through 2025, there was this lingering "China anxiety." The U.S. and Dutch governments were tightening the screws on export licenses, and everyone wondered if ASML could survive a "significant decline" in Chinese revenue. Management even admitted they expected China sales to drop from 36% down to maybe 20% by the end of 2026.
That sounds scary. It’s not.
What the market realized—and what's driving the stock price of asml today—is that the "AI Supercycle" is more than just hype. It's an infrastructure arms race. While demand for older, "Deep Ultraviolet" (DUV) machines in China might be cooling off because of those trade curbs, the demand for "Extreme Ultraviolet" (EUV) systems is absolutely insatiable. These aren't your average pieces of equipment. We're talking about machines the size of a double-decker bus that cost roughly $380 million a pop.
The High-NA Era is Actually Here
We've moved past the experimental phase. In late 2025, Intel finally finished acceptance testing for its first "High-NA" (High Numerical Aperture) EUV systems. This is the tech required for the 2-nanometer node and whatever comes after it.
- Intel is betting the farm on these to reclaim the manufacturing crown.
- Samsung reportedly took delivery of its own High-NA units in early January 2026.
- TSMC is ramping up spending because they can't afford to be second.
It’s kind of wild to think about. ASML has a literal monopoly on the most important tool in the modern global economy. If you want to build a chip that can run a massive LLM, you have to go through them. There is no Plan B. This "non-substitutable" nature is why analysts like Srini Pajjuri from RBC Capital just slapped a $1,550 price target on the stock. They see a path where the earnings per share (EPS), which sat around €24.24 recently, could continue to climb as these high-margin High-NA machines start shipping in volume.
The Geopolitical Tightrope and Investor Sentiment
Is it all sunshine and rainbows? Kinda, but with asterisks.
The valuation is a bit rich for some. ASML is trading at a forward P/E that makes value investors sweat—often north of 40x. Compare that to a sector average closer to 23x, and you see why some people get nervous. But you’re not paying for a "standard" hardware company. You’re paying for the gatekeeper of the digital age.
Realities of the China Slowdown
We have to talk about the "normalization" of China revenue. In 2024, Chinese firms were panic-buying DUV machines before the bans fully kicked in. That created a massive revenue spike that was never going to last. Now, as we move through 2026, that "hole" in the order book is being filled by the West and Taiwan.
Interestingly, Morgan Stanley recently upgraded their price target from €1,000 to €1,400. They aren't worried about the China dip because they see the "best-case scenario" where chipmakers accelerate spending even more to keep up with generative AI demand. It’s a shift from "maybe AI is a bubble" to "we need to build the factories now, regardless."
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception is that ASML follows the same cycle as your average laptop or smartphone manufacturer. It doesn't.
When you look at the stock price of asml, you're looking at a lead-lag indicator. Because these machines take months (sometimes years) to build and calibrate, the company’s "bookings"—the orders they’ve taken but haven’t shipped yet—are the real pulse of the company. In Q3 2025, they reported net bookings of €5.4 billion. That’s a massive backlog.
Even if the world buys fewer iPhones next month, TSMC and Intel are still going to buy these lithography machines because they are building for 2027, 2028, and 2030. They can't just turn the faucet off.
Key Factors to Watch in Early 2026
- The January 28 Earnings Call: This is the big one. Management has promised more details on the 2026 outlook. If they confirm that net sales won't fall below 2025 levels despite the China headwind, expect another leg up.
- Share Buybacks: The old €12 billion program didn't quite finish by the end of 2025. Word on the street is a new buyback program might be announced this month. That’s usually a signal that management thinks the stock is still a good deal.
- The 2nm Transition: As foundries move to 2nm production, the "litho-intensity" (basically how much of the chipmaking cost goes to lithography) goes up. This is a direct margin booster for ASML.
Actionable Insights for the Road Ahead
If you’re watching the stock price of asml as a potential entry point, don't just stare at the daily ticker. It’s too volatile for that. Instead, pay attention to the capex guidance from the "Big Three": TSMC, Intel, and Samsung.
If their spending stays at record highs, ASML’s floor remains incredibly solid.
Also, watch the High-NA rollout. Any delays in "High Volume Manufacturing" (HVM) for these machines could cause a short-term pullback. On the flip side, if the yields on those machines are better than expected, the upside is significant.
Honestly, the "smart money" isn't looking at whether ASML sells a few more DUV units in 2026. They're looking at whether High-NA becomes the industry standard by 2027. Right now, all signs point to "yes."
Keep an eye on the January 28, 2026 earnings report for the official word on that new share buyback program. If management follows through with a multi-billion euro commitment, it suggests they aren't just riding the AI wave—they're building the board everyone else is surfing on.
Check the specific delivery timelines for the "EXE:5200" series machines. These are the newer versions of High-NA. If delivery schedules for these systems accelerate, it’s a strong indicator that the "clouding" visibility management mentioned back in late 2025 has cleared up. Monitor the "Installed Base Management" revenue as well; as more machines are deployed globally, the recurring service and upgrade revenue becomes a much larger, more stable part of the pie, currently hovering around €2 billion per quarter.