The 2025 NFL Draft was a fever dream for Raiders fans. When the Las Vegas Raiders officially turned in the card for Boise State's Ashton Jeanty at the No. 6 overall spot, the collective gasp from the analytics community was audible. "A running back? In the top ten? In this economy?" You know the drill.
Honestly, the draft-day drama wasn't just about Vegas. It was about the San Francisco 49ers too. Rumors had been swirling for weeks that Kyle Shanahan was eyeing a "lightning to McCaffrey’s thunder" scenario. People thought the 49ers might mortgage the future to jump up and grab Jeanty, especially with Christian McCaffrey’s injury history becoming a recurring nightmare for the Bay Area. But they didn't. They stayed put.
Now that the dust has settled on Jeanty’s rookie campaign, everyone is playing Monday morning quarterback. Did the Raiders reach? Did the 49ers miss out on a generational talent?
The Boise State Legend Meets Vegas Reality
Ashton Jeanty didn't just walk into the NFL; he bulldozed his way in. At Boise State, he was basically a video game character. We're talking about 2,601 rushing yards and 30 total touchdowns in his final season. He was 27 yards shy of Barry Sanders' all-time record.
When the Raiders took him, the vision was clear: Pete Carroll and John Spytek wanted a bell-cow. They wanted that Marshawn Lynch energy back in the building. And look, Jeanty delivered in ways the box score doesn't fully show. He finished his rookie year with 1,321 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns.
On paper, that's a home run. He broke Josh Jacobs’ franchise record for scrimmage yards by a rookie. But if you watched the games, it was a grind. The Raiders' offensive line was, frankly, a sieve for most of the year.
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By the Numbers: Jeanty’s True Impact
- Yards After Contact: A staggering 88.5% of his yards came after he was already hit.
- Missed Tackles Forced: He tied for fourth in the NFL with 71.
- Yards Before Contact: He averaged just 0.42 yards before meeting a defender.
Basically, the kid was doing it all by himself. While guys like Tetairoa McMillan (who went No. 8 to the Panthers) were catching touchdowns, Jeanty was busy fighting for his life three yards behind the line of scrimmage.
Why the 49ers Decided to Pass
There was a lot of talk about the 49ers being the "perfect" home for Jeanty. Think about it. Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme + Jeanty’s elite vision? It’s a match made in football heaven.
But the 49ers are in a weird spot. They have a roster full of expensive superstars like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. Drafting a running back high is a luxury they couldn't afford, especially when they were desperate for offensive line help and secondary depth.
The 49ers bet on their system. They bet that they could find "the next guy" in the mid-rounds, as they often do. Meanwhile, the Raiders bet on the individual. It's a classic clash of team-building philosophies. Some scouts argued that Jeanty’s style was actually too similar to McCaffrey’s—minus the elite route-running at the time. Why spend a first-rounder on a redundant skill set?
What Most People Get Wrong About the Pick
The loudest criticism of the Raiders taking Jeanty at No. 6 is that "running backs don't matter." It’s a tired trope.
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What people miss is the identity shift the Raiders were desperate for. They weren't just drafting a guy who runs the ball; they were drafting a culture. Jeanty is a "first one in, last one out" type of leader. In a locker room that has seen its fair share of drama, having a guy who just puts his head down and runs through people is worth more than the EPA (Expected Points Added) might suggest.
Also, let’s talk about the pass-catching. Jeanty was touted as a "pure" runner, but he hauled in 55 catches as a rookie. He’s not just a bruiser. He’s a three-down back who was forced to be a superhero because the Raiders didn't have a consistent threat at quarterback after the Geno Smith experiment hit some turbulence.
Comparing Jeanty to the 2025 Class
If you look back at the 2025 draft, it was actually pretty top-heavy with defensive talent.
- Mason Graham (DT, Michigan) – The "safe" pick.
- Will Johnson (CB, Michigan) – An elite lockdown corner.
- Shedeur Sanders (QB, Colorado) – The polarizing choice.
By taking Jeanty, the Raiders bypassed potentially elite defenders. Was it worth it? If you ask Raiders GM John Spytek, he’ll tell you that Jeanty’s success is tied to the 10 other guys on the field. He’s right. You can’t judge a Ferrari's speed if the road is full of potholes.
The "Luxury Pick" Argument
A lot of analysts, including Bleacher Report’s Brent Sobleski, have since argued that the Raiders should have gone with a receiver like McMillan. The logic is that receivers have longer lifespans and higher ceilings in the modern NFL.
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But the Raiders were 32nd in EPA per rush the year before Jeanty arrived. They were non-functional on the ground. You can't run a balanced offense if your running game is literally the worst in the league. Jeanty didn't just "improve" the run game; he became the run game.
What's Next for the Raiders and Jeanty?
The 2026 offseason is going to be massive for Las Vegas. They’ve already clinched the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 Draft. This is the chance to fix the mistakes of 2025.
If they use that top pick on a franchise quarterback or a generational offensive tackle like Will Campbell, Jeanty’s production will explode. Imagine him running against light boxes because defenses actually have to respect the deep ball.
Actionable Takeaways for the Offseason:
- Invest in the Interior: The Raiders need a guard who can actually pull and lead-block. Jeanty is great, but he shouldn't be breaking three tackles just to get back to the line of scrimmage.
- Diversify the Play-Calling: Whoever the new offensive coordinator is needs to use Jeanty in the screen game more often. He’s too dangerous in space to be used only on "dive" plays.
- Manage the Tread: 266 carries in a rookie season is a lot. To keep him healthy for a five-year window, they need a reliable RB2 to take the 1st-and-10 carries in the first quarter.
The "Ashton Jeanty to the Raiders" story isn't a failure, and the 49ers passing on him wasn't necessarily a mistake. It was a choice between two different ways to build a contender. As we head into 2026, Jeanty remains one of the most exciting players to watch, provided the Raiders can finally give him a "road" worth driving on.