Honestly, if you watched Boise State at all in 2024, you knew Ashton Jeanty wasn't just another college back. You saw the stats. 2,601 rushing yards. 29 touchdowns. He was basically a human highlight reel that didn't know how to fall down. But now that we're sitting in January 2026, looking back at where he actually landed, the conversation has shifted from "where will he go?" to "how did the rest of the league let the Raiders get him at six?"
The Ashton Jeanty projected pick was the obsession of every draft room for months. Some scouts were terrified of his height—he’s 5'8" on a good day—while others couldn't get over the fact that he touched the ball almost 400 times in a single season. But the Las Vegas Raiders didn't care about the tread on the tires. They saw a guy who could force 54 missed tackles in a pro season and said, "Yeah, we'll take that."
The Draft Day Reality vs. The Projections
Leading up to the 2025 NFL Draft, the range for Jeanty was all over the place. Mel Kiper Jr. was banging the drum for him to go top 10, specifically to Vegas, because their run game was historically bad in 2024. They were dead last in rushing yards per game. It was ugly. Meanwhile, some "value" purists argued that you just don't take a running back that high anymore unless they’re Saquon Barkley.
The Ashton Jeanty projected pick settled at No. 6 overall.
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It was a bold move by the Raiders, especially with quarterbacks like Shedeur Sanders still on the board for some teams. But Pete Carroll—who was then pulling the strings—has always been a "run the dang ball" guy. He saw Jeanty’s 5.3 yards after contact at Boise State and realized that translated to any level.
Why Teams Passed (And Why They Regret It)
- The "Group of Five" Tax: People kept saying he only did it against Mountain West defenses. Sure, he hung 267 yards on Georgia Southern, but skeptics wondered if he could do it against the Georgia Bulldogs of the world.
- Size Concerns: Standing 5'8" and 215 pounds, he's built like a bowling ball. Some teams prefer the 6'0" "prototypical" frame of an Omarion Hampton.
- Workload: 374 carries in 2024 is a lot of hits. There was a genuine fear that his best football was already left on the blue turf in Boise.
How the Rookie Season Actually Went
Look, the Raiders' 2025 season wasn't a fairy tale. They struggled. They changed offensive coordinators mid-season. But Jeanty? He was the bright spot. He finished the year with 975 rushing yards.
He didn't hit 1,000, which made some critics chirp about him being a "bust" for a sixth-overall pick. But that's a casual take. If you look at the tape, he was running behind an offensive line that was basically a revolving door for most of the year. Despite that, he led all rookies in scrimmage yards with 1,321.
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He also became a massive threat in the passing game. He caught 55 balls. Think about that—a "power back" from Boise State leading his team in reliability out of the backfield. He had a 60-yard touchdown catch against the Texans in Week 16 that made linebackers look like they were running in sand.
"I’m proud of Ashton. It wasn’t an easy season for him," Raiders GM John Spytek said during his 2026 exit interview. "He showed up every day and worked. We’ve got to do a better job surrounding him with players that can help him."
Why His Stock is Actually Rising for 2026
If you're playing fantasy football or just following the league, Jeanty's value is higher now than it was on draft night. Why? Because he proved the contact balance is real. His 3.14 yards after contact per attempt ranked him in the top 10 of all NFL backs this past year.
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He’s not just a "homerun" hitter; he’s a "move the chains" guy. The Raiders' offense was often stagnant, yet Jeanty managed to force 57 missed tackles. That is an elite number for a rookie. He’s essentially doing what Josh Jacobs used to do in Vegas, but with a higher ceiling in the receiving game.
The Comparison Game
People love to compare him to Maurice Jones-Drew because of the height, but the way he bounces off hits is more like a modern-day Nick Chubb. He has this weird ability to get skinny in the hole and then explode into the secondary.
What’s Next for Jeanty?
The Raiders are currently in a coaching search, and whoever takes that job is inheriting a goldmine. With Brock Bowers at tight end and Jeanty in the backfield, the "skill" part of the rebuild is done. Now they just need a line that can hold a block for more than two seconds.
For the doubters who thought the Ashton Jeanty projected pick at six was too high: go back and watch the Week 17 game against the Giants. He was the only reason the Raiders were even in it. He’s a foundational piece.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
- Watch the Offensive Line Moves: If the Raiders invest in a veteran guard or a high-round tackle in the 2026 draft, Jeanty’s production will likely skyrocket to 1,200+ yards.
- Fantasy Value: He’s a "buy low" in dynasty leagues right now. People are looking at his 3.6 yards per carry and getting nervous. Don't be that guy. The volume and the talent are there.
- Scouting the "Jeanty Type": Expect more teams to look at shorter, compact backs in the 2026 draft. The success of Jeanty and even guys like Blake Corum has shifted the "ideal" RB profile back toward leverage and contact balance over pure height.
The Boise State product came into the league with a massive target on his back, and he’s spent the last several months proving that the Mountain West wasn't a fluke. He's a pro's pro. If the Raiders get the right play-caller in 2026, we aren't going to be talking about his draft slot anymore—we’ll be talking about his Pro Bowl nods.