Honestly, if you missed the latest clash between the Red Wolves and the Trojans, you missed the kind of Sun Belt chaos that makes college hoops so addicting. We aren't just talking about a mid-major game in a half-empty gym. We're talking about a high-stakes battle for conference positioning that shifted the entire vibe of the standings in January 2026.
Arkansas State walked into their home court at First National Bank Arena on January 7th and basically told Troy that their five-game winning streak didn't mean a thing. It was a loud 86-74 victory for the Red Wolves. If you’re a Troy fan, it was a frustrating night of "what ifs." If you’re pulling for A-State, it was the Christian Harmon show.
The Night the Red Wolves Took Over
Going into this game, everyone was talking about Troy. They had the momentum. They had the "it" factor. Then the ball tipped, and Arkansas State’s defense started flying around like they had six guys on the court.
Christian Harmon was the absolute soul of this win. He dropped 18 points, but it wasn't just the volume; it was the timing. Every time Troy tried to chip away at the lead, Harmon seemed to find a pocket of space beyond the arc. He went 4-of-8 from deep. When a guy is shooting 50% from three-point land on that kind of volume, your defensive game plan usually goes out the window pretty fast.
But Harmon didn't act alone. Chandler Jackson was a nightmare for Troy's guards to stay in front of. Jackson finished with 17 points, doing a lot of his damage at the charity stripe where he went 8-of-10. That's the stuff that kills a comeback—consistent, boring, efficient free throws.
Why Troy Couldn't Close the Gap
Troy led for exactly 2 minutes and 2 seconds of the entire game. That is a brutal stat. You've got to wonder if the travel or the atmosphere in Jonesboro just got to them early. They were in a hole almost immediately, and while Theo Seng played out of his mind, it just wasn't enough to drag the rest of the roster across the finish line.
Seng was a beast. Let’s give credit where it’s due:
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- He finished with a career-high 23 points.
- He missed only three shots all night (10-of-13).
- He hauled in 8 rebounds.
If Seng had a little more help from the perimeter, we might be talking about a Troy win. Instead, the Trojans' starting backcourt struggled to find any rhythm. Victor Valdes, who has been a pillar for them all season, had one of those "burn the tape" kind of nights, shooting 1-of-10 from the field. You can't have your primary scorers going cold in a hostile road environment and expect to win.
The Strategy Breakdown: Paint vs. Perimeter
Arkansas State’s coach, Bryan Pannone, clearly told his guys to attack the paint early to open up the shooters. It worked. By the time Troy adjusted to the drives from Jackson and Matt Hayman, the kick-out passes to Harmon and Jaxon Ellingsworth were already in flight.
Ellingsworth was the X-factor. Coming off the bench, he provided 14 points and matched Harmon with four triples of his own. When your bench is producing that kind of efficiency, you’re nearly impossible to beat. Arkansas State finished the game shooting 40% from three as a team. In college basketball, 40% is usually the "magic number" for a win.
Troy, on the other hand, relied heavily on Thomas Dowd. He played 36 minutes—the most of anyone on the floor—and finished with a double-double: 14 points and 10 rebounds. He also had 4 blocks, which was a career high. Dowd is arguably the most versatile defender in the Sun Belt right now, but even he couldn't be everywhere at once.
Current Sun Belt Standings Impact
This game wasn't just about bragging rights. It flipped the script on the West Division.
Before the tip-off, Troy was sitting pretty at the top. After the 86-74 loss, both teams found themselves at 3-1 in conference play. It’s a logjam. James Madison is still the beast of the East, but the West is currently a three-way fistfight between Troy, Arkansas State, and Southern Miss.
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The Red Wolves moved to 11-5 overall, while Troy dropped to 10-6. What’s wild is the "Points For" average. Both these teams are top-3 in the conference for scoring. They play fast. They want to get 75+ shots up. When you get Arkansas State vs Troy basketball on the schedule, you aren't going to see a slow, 50-48 grind. You're going to see a track meet.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Matchup
There’s this weird narrative that Arkansas State is just a "shooter's team." People think if you stop the three, you stop the Wolves. That wasn't true on January 7th.
They won this game because of rebounding.
A-State out-rebounded Troy 44 to 30. That’s a massive gap. In a game decided by 12 points, giving up 14 more rebounds than you take is a death sentence. Jalen Hampton didn't score much (only 2 points), but he grabbed 7 boards and played stellar post defense. He did the dirty work that allows the stars to shine.
Also, don't sleep on the bench depth. Troy’s bench only contributed 16 points. Arkansas State got 30 from their reserves. In the grueling month of January, when legs start getting heavy, that depth is the difference between a mid-tier finish and a deep run in the Sun Belt tournament.
Key Stats That Actually Mattered
- Field Goal Percentage: Arkansas State hit 44.8% while Troy struggled at 41.5%.
- Free Throws: A-State made 22-of-29. Troy made 11-of-18. You do the math—that’s an 11-point difference right there in a 12-point game.
- The 12-0 Run: Late in the first half, Arkansas State went on a tear that turned a tight 2-point game into a double-digit cushion. Troy never got the lead back under 10 for the entire second half.
Looking Ahead: The Rematch and Beyond
So, where do they go from here?
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Troy has to find a way to get Victor Valdes back in a groove. He's too good of a player to stay down for long, and their offense stagnates when he isn't a threat. They’ll be looking at the return game on their home floor in Alabama as a chance for redemption.
Arkansas State has to prove this wasn't a fluke. Winning at home is one thing; doing it on the road in the Trojan Arena is a different beast entirely. They have the shooters, they have the size in Dioramma and Hampton, and they have the confidence.
If you're betting on the Sun Belt Championship, these are two of the four teams you need to be watching. The level of play in Jonesboro showed that the gap between the "power" conferences and the Sun Belt is shrinking. The athleticism on the floor was undeniable.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts:
- Watch the Glass: In the next matchup, check the rebounding totals at the 10-minute mark of the first half. If Troy is keeping it even, they’ll likely win. If A-State is +5 or more, it’s going to be a long night for the Trojans.
- Target the "Third Scorer": Both teams have established stars. The winner of these matchups is usually determined by whether someone like Jaxon Ellingsworth (A-State) or Cooper Campbell (Troy) has a breakout night.
- Free Throw Consistency: Keep an eye on Troy's percentage. Shooting 61% from the line is a recipe for disaster in close conference games. They need to get that closer to 70% to survive the February stretch.
Keep an eye on the injury reports heading into late January, but for now, Arkansas State holds the crown in this rivalry. They played the smarter, more physical game, and they have the record to prove it.