You’d think a matchup between two Sun Belt teams in different states wouldn't carry this much weight. But honestly, if you haven’t been watching Arkansas State vs South Alabama lately, you’re missing the weirdest, most heart-attack-inducing football in the Southeast.
It’s not Alabama-Auburn. It's not Michigan-Ohio State.
It’s better because it’s unpredictable.
Take the October 14, 2025 meeting at Hancock Whitney Stadium. South Alabama had the game in their hands. They were up 14-3 heading into the fourth quarter. The Jaguars' defense was playing lights out. Then, the wheels just fell off. Arkansas State roared back with 12 unanswered points. Clune Van Andel—a name Jaguars fans probably won't forget anytime soon—stepped up and drilled a 38-yard field goal as time expired.
Final score: Arkansas State 15, South Alabama 14. The air basically left the stadium. One second you're winning, the next you're 1-6 and staring at a six-game losing streak. That's the Sun Belt for you.
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Why the Red Wolves Keep Breaking Hearts
The Red Wolves have this annoying habit (if you’re an opponent) of hanging around. In 2024, they beat the Jaguars 18-16. In 2025, it was 15-14. Notice a pattern? These aren't blowouts. They are grinders.
Jaylen Raynor is a huge reason why.
Against South Alabama in their last meeting, he wasn't exactly surgical through the air, going 29-of-45 for 209 yards. But he’s a nightmare to tackle in the open field. He ran for 76 yards, including a 42-yard burst that set up the touchdown to Hunter Summers that brought them within two. When a quarterback can hurt you with his legs like that late in the fourth, defensive coordinators start losing sleep.
Arkansas State under Butch Jones has been a rollercoaster. They finished 2025 at 6-7, but they were 5-3 in conference play. They aren't the most talented team in the country, but they are opportunistic. They win the games they "should" lose by simply making fewer mistakes at the very end.
The Jaguar Collapse: What Happened?
South Alabama fans have a right to be frustrated. They actually outplayed Arkansas State for three quarters in 2025. Kentrel Bullock was running well (72 yards and a TD), and PJ Martin added a 27-yard score to put them in the driver's seat.
But penalties are a killer.
The Jaguars got flagged 14 times for 115 yards. You can’t win close games when you’re constantly moving yourself backward. Then there was the missed field goal. Hamilton DiBoyan had a chance to ice it with a 29-yarder with 1:50 left. He missed wide right.
If he makes that, Arkansas State needs a touchdown with no timeouts. He misses, and suddenly the Red Wolves only need a field goal.
Football is a game of inches, but sometimes it’s just a game of who blinks first. South Alabama blinked.
A History of Streaks and Oddities
If you look at the Arkansas State vs South Alabama series history, it’s a game of runs.
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- The Early Dominance: Arkansas State won the first five meetings from 2012 to 2016.
- The Jaguar Response: South Alabama flipped the script, winning five straight from 2019 to 2023.
- The Current Swing: Arkansas State has now won two in a row, both by a combined total of 3 points.
The Jaguars actually had a massive win in 2022, a 31-3 thumping that made it look like the rivalry was one-sided. But in the Sun Belt, today's blowout is tomorrow's nail-biter.
The defense for South Alabama usually features some heavy hitters. Blayne Myrick is a name that shows up everywhere on the stat sheet. He had 13 tackles in the last meeting. He’s a Sun Belt Preseason Defensive Player of the Year for a reason. But even an elite linebacker can't stop a walk-off field goal.
What to Watch Moving Forward
Looking ahead to 2026, the landscape is shifting. South Alabama is trying to find its identity after a rough 2025 campaign where they struggled to finish games. Arkansas State is trying to prove that their narrow wins weren't just luck.
Key Matchup Factors:
- The Kicking Game: Clune Van Andel is a weapon. In a league where games are decided by one or two points, having a guy who doesn't miss in the clutch is worth three wins a season.
- Discipline: South Alabama has to clean up the yellow laundry. 14 penalties in a single game is a coaching nightmare.
- Quarterback Stability: Raynor is the engine for the Red Wolves. If he stays healthy, they are a bowl team. If he’s out, the offense loses its explosive element.
Real Talk: Is This a "Real" Rivalry?
Depends on who you ask. If you ask a fan in Mobile, they’ll probably tell you they hate Troy more. If you ask a fan in Jonesboro, they’re looking at Appalachian State or Louisiana.
But the players? They feel it.
When you lose on a walk-off field goal two years in a row, it becomes personal. The 2025 game was chippy. It was loud. It felt like a rivalry.
Actionable Insights for the Next Matchup
If you’re betting on this game or just trying to win your office pool, keep these three things in mind:
- Take the Under: These two teams have a history of defensive struggles that somehow turn into low-scoring affairs. In the last four meetings, they haven't gone over the point total once.
- Watch the Red Zone: South Alabama’s defense finally got a red-zone stop (a blocked field goal) in the 2025 game. If they can improve their efficiency there, they stop the bleeding.
- The "Home" Factor is Fake: Arkansas State has won in Mobile. South Alabama has won in Jonesboro. Don't weigh home-field advantage too heavily in this specific series.
The next time these two programs meet, don't look at the records. A 1-6 team can absolutely take a winning team to the wire. It happened in 2025, and it’ll probably happen again.
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Keep an eye on the injury reports for Raynor and Bullock leading up to game day. Those two are the pulse of their respective offenses. If one is out, the entire betting line shifts.
Get ready for the next installment. It’ll probably end on a field goal. It always does.