You’ve heard the joke a thousand times: "But it's a dry heat." Well, today in Arizona, we’re dealing with the January version of that—the dry cold. Honestly, it’s the kind of morning where you step outside and the air feels so crisp it almost snaps.
If you’re waking up in Phoenix or anywhere across the Valley today, Saturday, January 17, 2026, you’re likely staring at a bright, clear sky. But don’t let that golden sunshine fool you into thinking it's t-shirt weather just yet. While we’re seeing a current temperature of 62°F as of mid-morning in Phoenix, the early birds definitely felt that overnight low of 48°F.
The arizona weather forecast today is basically a masterclass in desert fluctuations. We’re tracking a high of 75°F for the Phoenix area, which sounds like perfection, right? It is, but there’s a slight breeze coming in from the southeast at about 4 mph that keeps the shade feeling a bit sharper than the thermometer suggests.
The statewide split: Flagstaff vs. The Valley
It’s kinda wild how one state can have two completely different personalities on the same Saturday. Up in Flagstaff, the National Weather Service is tracking a weak cold front that's dropping temperatures just a few degrees and bringing in some locally breezy northeast winds.
If you’re heading north for some mountain air, be ready. We’re looking at daytime highs that are struggling to hit 58°F in some parts of northern Arizona, with a bone-chilling overnight low of 26°F expected. That’s a massive 32-degree swing. Basically, if you aren't dressing in layers, you’re doing Arizona winters wrong.
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Why the humidity matters right now
Humidity is sitting at a measly 24% to 28% depending on where you are in the state. For most of the country, that sounds like a dream. For us, it means your skin probably feels like parchment and you’re drinking twice as much water as usual.
Because the air is so dry, it doesn't hold onto the day's heat. The second that sun dips behind the White Tank Mountains or the Superstitions later this afternoon, the temperature is going to crater.
What to expect for the rest of Saturday
The UV index is hitting a 3 today. It’s "moderate," but in the desert, a 3 can still sneak up on you if you’re out hiking Camelback or hitting the golf course.
- Precipitation: Absolutely zero. There is a 0% chance of rain (or snow, even in the high country) for the remainder of today.
- Wind: Light and variable. We saw about 2 mph from the east this morning, shifting to about 4 mph from the southeast later. It's not enough to ruin a patio brunch, but enough to move the napkins around.
- Visibility: Crystal clear. You can see for miles, which makes it a top-tier day for photography or just staring at the Four Peaks.
Is this "normal" for January?
Actually, we're trending a little bit above the long-term averages. Usually, Phoenix sees a max of 19°C (about 66°F) in January. Hitting 75°F today puts us well above the "standard" winter afternoon.
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High pressure is the big boss of our weather right now. According to the latest Area Forecast Discussions from the NWS Phoenix and Tucson offices, this strong high pressure is parked right over the region and isn't planning on moving until at least the middle of next week. That means dry conditions and "hovering" temperatures are the name of the game for the next few days.
Actionable steps for your Arizona Saturday
Don't let the 75°F high fool you into being unprepared for the evening. If you're heading out to an outdoor dinner or a Suns game later, bring a medium-weight jacket. The "dry cold" is real, and the drop from 75°F to the high 40s happens faster than you'd think.
Also, keep an eye on your hydration. With humidity this low, you’re losing moisture just by breathing. If you’re hitting the trails, double your usual water intake.
Check your tire pressure if you're driving between the Valley and the High Country. Those 30-degree temperature swings can actually trigger your TPMS light because of the air density changes. It’s a classic Arizona winter move that catches people off guard every time.
Stay out in the sun while it lasts—Sunday is looking just as clear, with those above-normal temperatures sticking around for the first half of the work week.