You’ve probably seen the headlines or heard the whispers at the coffee shop in Scottsdale or a diner in Tucson. Politics in Arizona is basically a high-speed chase that never ends. Just when we thought the dust had settled after the 2024 cycle, the gears started turning again. If you’re trying to keep track of the Arizona House special election scene, honestly, it’s a lot.
Most people assume "special elections" are just smaller versions of the big dance in November. They’re not. They are frantic, high-stakes sprints often triggered by something unexpected—a resignation, a death, or a sudden career pivot to a higher office. In 2025, we saw this play out in a massive way with Congressional District 7, and the ripples are still hitting the shores of the state legislature as we head into 2026.
Why the Arizona House Special Election Cycle is Different This Year
Arizona law is pretty specific. Under A.R.S. § 16-222, if a vacancy hits a U.S. House seat, the Governor has a tight 72-hour window to pull the trigger on a special election schedule. We saw this in action when the late Representative Raúl Grijalva passed away. Governor Katie Hobbs didn't waste time, setting a special primary for July 15, 2025, followed by the special general on September 23, 2025.
That wasn't just a "fill-in-the-blank" vote. It was historic. Adelita Grijalva, Raúl's daughter, stepped up and secured a resounding victory with nearly 69% of the vote. She didn't just win; she became the first Latina to represent Arizona in Congress. That’s the kind of shift that changes the gravity of a room.
But here is where it gets kinda messy for the state house. When big names move up to the big leagues in D.C., it creates a vacuum back home.
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The "Musical Chairs" Effect
Think about it. When a state representative decides to run for a vacant Congressional seat, they often have to resign or at least shift focus. This leaves a hole in the Arizona House of Representatives. Currently, the balance in the state house is razor-thin: 33 Republicans and 27 Democrats. In a chamber of 60, every single seat is a fortress.
You've got people like David Schweikert, who initially looked at re-election for District 1 but then decided to jump into the Governor’s race for 2026. That one move sent a shockwave through the local GOP. Now, you’ve got state reps like Joseph Chaplik and potentially Matt Gress looking at that seat. If they move, their state house seats become the next battleground.
What Most People Miss About Special Election Turnout
Basically, special elections are won by the people who remember to show up.
In the District 7 special election last September, turnout was roughly 23%. That is low. Like, "forgot to set the alarm" low. But for a special election? That’s actually where the "ground game" becomes everything. When only one in four voters shows up, a dedicated group of 5,000 people can carry a candidate across the finish line.
Breaking Down the Candidates and the Stakes
Let’s look at the names floating around for the upcoming shifts. In the 1st Congressional District (which influences the local house races), the field is getting crowded. On the Republican side, you have:
- Joseph Chaplik: A current state rep who knows the legislative halls.
- Jay Feely: Yes, the former Arizona Cardinals kicker.
- Gina Swoboda: The chair of the AZ GOP.
On the Democratic side, Jonathan Treble and Amish Shah are putting up serious fundraising numbers. Jonathan Treble alone reported raising over $1.7 million by late 2025. That is "special election" money on steroids.
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The Logistics: How You Actually Vote
If you’re living in a district facing a special election, the rules feel the same but the deadlines are tighter. For the 2026 cycle, the Arizona Secretary of State has already laid out the map.
- Voter Registration: You usually need to be registered 29 days before the election. For the March 10, 2026, local elections, the deadline is February 9.
- Early Voting: Arizona loves its mail-in ballots. If you’re on the Active Early Voter List (AEVL), you’re golden. If not, you’ve got to request that ballot about 11 days before the polls open.
- Independent Voters: This is a big one. Arizona has an open primary law. If you’re registered as an Independent, you can actually pick which party’s ballot you want to cast. You don't have to join the party; you just have to choose for that specific day.
Misconceptions That Could Cost a Seat
There’s this idea that "special elections don't matter because the regular election is coming anyway."
That's a trap.
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In a state where the legislature is divided by just a handful of votes, a special election can flip the majority for a full session. That means different laws on housing, different budgets for schools, and a completely different vibe at the Capitol in Phoenix.
Also, don't assume the incumbent's party will always hold the seat. While District 7 remained safely Democratic with Grijalva, many state-level seats in Maricopa County are "toss-ups" according to the Cook Political Report. District 1 and District 6 are currently leaning Republican but are considered highly competitive.
Actionable Insights for Arizona Voters
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, don't just wait for a postcard to show up in your mailbox.
- Check your registration now. Seriously. Go to the Arizona Secretary of State’s website or AZMVDNow. If you moved from Tempe to Mesa, you might be in a different district and not even know it.
- Follow the money. Look at the FEC filings for Congressional races or the Secretary of State filings for legislative ones. If a candidate is raising millions in a "special" year, they aren't just playing; they're aiming for a long-term seat.
- Watch the "Statement of Interest" filings. Candidates have to file these before they even start collecting signatures. It’s the earliest "tell" for who is actually running.
The Arizona House special election landscape is basically the preamble to the 2026 general election. It’s where the parties test their messaging, where new stars like Adelita Grijalva are born, and where the balance of power is actually decided. Don't let the "special" label fool you—these are the races that set the stage for everything else.
To stay fully prepared, mark your calendar for the August 4, 2026 primary. Even if a special election isn't currently triggered in your specific neighborhood, the vacancies happening now will dictate who ends up on your ballot next summer. Keep an eye on the state house vacancy reports from the Governor's office; they are the best early warning system for a special election in your backyard.