Honestly, if you looked at the map on election night, you probably thought you were seeing double. The Southwest has always been a bit of a wildcard, but the recent Arizona and Nevada election results have left political junkies and casual voters alike scratching their heads. We saw a massive red wave at the top of the ticket, yet a stubborn blue streak remained in the Senate races.
It's weird.
In Arizona, Donald Trump didn't just win; he cleared the field by over 5 points. That’s a massive swing from 2020. But then you look at the Senate race, and Ruben Gallego—a progressive guy who was supposed to be "too liberal" for the state—beat Kari Lake. Nevada told a similar story. Trump became the first Republican to carry the Silver State since George W. Bush in 2004, yet Jacky Rosen managed to hang on to her Senate seat.
What's actually going on in the desert? It’s not just "voter confusion." It’s a sophisticated, somewhat chaotic shift in how people in these two states view their local identity versus the national mood.
The Arizona Breakdown: Trump’s Surge vs. Gallego’s Gritty Win
Arizona is basically the capital of ticket-splitting right now. You’ve got a state that went 52.2% for Trump, giving him all 11 electoral votes, but then turned around and gave Ruben Gallego a 2.4% victory over Kari Lake.
Why the disconnect?
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Most people point to the "McCain Republican." These are the voters who might like Trump's policies on the economy or the border—which, let’s be real, was the #1 issue in the Grand Canyon State—but they couldn't stomach Lake. She spent a lot of time relitigating the 2020 election and attacking the McCain legacy. In a state that still values that specific brand of Maverick conservatism, that's a death wish.
The Latino Vote Shift
The numbers are pretty staggering here. According to exit polls and final tallies, Trump made massive gains with Hispanic men in Maricopa and Yuma counties. We're talking about a demographic that used to be a lock for Democrats. But Gallego, the son of Mexican and Colombian immigrants, ran a very different campaign than the national Democratic platform. He leaned into his veteran status and focused on "cost of living" in a way that felt authentic to the local crowd.
He ended up with about 93,000 more votes than Kamala Harris did in the state. Think about that. Nearly 100,000 people walked into a booth, picked the Republican for President, and then immediately picked the Democrat for Senate.
Nevada’s Historical Flip: The End of the 20-Year Drought
Nevada was the only state that Trump lost in both 2016 and 2020 but managed to flip in 2024. He won by 3.1%, and a big chunk of that came from "None of These Candidates." Seriously. In Nevada, that’s a real option on the ballot, and over 19,000 people chose it for President.
But the real story is Clark County.
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Las Vegas is usually the "blue wall" that saves Democrats. This time, that wall had some serious cracks. While Harris still won Clark County, her margin was tiny—only about 2.6%. Compare that to Jacky Rosen, who won Clark by over 7%.
Why Jacky Rosen Survived
Rosen is kinda the master of the "middle of the road" vibe. She campaigned heavily on being the most bipartisan Senator. She didn't talk much about national social wars; she talked about the price of eggs and the $35 insulin cap.
Sam Brown, her opponent, was a decorated veteran with a powerful story, but he struggled to distance himself from the national "MAGA" brand in a way that resonated with Nevada's massive population of Independent voters. In Nevada, Independents are now the largest voting bloc—bigger than Democrats or Republicans. They don't want a "party man." They want someone who feels like they’re actually doing the job.
The Ballot Curing Drama and Why It Takes So Long
If you were annoyed that it took nearly a week to get the final Arizona and Nevada election results, you aren't alone. But there’s a legal reason for it.
Arizona has a 5-day "curing" period. Basically, if your signature on your mail-in ballot doesn't match the one on file, the county has to call you or text you to fix it. This isn't "fraud"; it's just the law. In 2024, tens of thousands of ballots were cured in the days following the election.
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Nevada has similar rules. Because so many people in these states vote by mail, and those mail-in ballots can arrive right on Election Day, the counting process is naturally slow. It's a feature, not a bug, of their systems designed to ensure every legal vote is counted.
What This Means for 2026 and Beyond
The data shows us a few things that are going to matter for the next few years:
- The Border is the New Economy: In Arizona, immigration wasn't just a talking point; it was the deciding factor for many who switched from Biden to Trump.
- Ticket-Splitting is Back: For a long time, people thought "polarized voting" meant you just checked the box for your party all the way down. Arizona and Nevada just proved that wrong. Voters are getting pickier about who represents them locally.
- The Reid Machine is Fading: The late Harry Reid’s legendary Democratic organizing machine in Nevada is showing its age. If Democrats want to win the state back in the next cycle, they can't rely on union turnouts alone anymore.
Your Next Steps to Stay Informed
If you're trying to keep track of how these shifts affect your daily life, don't just look at the horse race.
- Watch the 2025 Legislative Sessions: Keep an eye on the Arizona State Legislature. With a divided government (Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs and a very slim Republican majority in the house), expect a lot of gridlock on things like school vouchers and water rights.
- Check Your Registration: Since Nevada is now an "Opt-Out" motor voter state, you might be registered as an Independent without even realizing it. Check your status at the Secretary of State website to make sure you're set for the primaries.
- Follow Local Reporters: National news misses the nuance of the Southwest. Follow folks like Garrett Archer (the "Data Guru") in AZ or Jon Ralston in NV for the actual ground-level truth.
The desert hasn't turned fully red, and it's certainly not deep blue. It’s a hazy shade of purple that changes every time the wind blows.
Arizona Presidential Results (Final): Trump 52.2%, Harris 46.7%
Nevada Presidential Results (Final): Trump 50.6%, Harris 47.5%